The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 42-13 Victory Over UCLA

Take a look at what we got right and wrong from Indiana’s win over UCLA at the Rose Bowl.

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) carries the ball against UCLA Bruins defensive back Kanye Clark (1) in the first half at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

PASADENA, Calif. – Reviewing predictions is a lot more fun when it’s about parsing superlatives instead of hashing over areas in which a team fell short.

That’s the reality for Indiana football at present. A 42-13 victory over UCLA at the Rose Bowl on Saturday was so decisive and thorough that even the most optimistic Indiana fan would have struggled to come to grips with everything the Hoosiers did right.

I will throw in the proviso that I don’t think UCLA is very good, but so what? Indiana hasn’t been very good for the last three seasons, so to come to the West Coast and dominate in the fashion the Hoosiers did is a major sign of progress.

So let’s see how our predictions lined up with the real thing. Let’s start with the predicted three keys:

1. Follow the Hawaii template and stop the run

UCLA Bruins running back T.J. Harden (25) carries the ball in the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

When UCLA faced Hawaii in its season opener, the Rainbow Warriors held the Bruins to 71 rushing yards, but UCLA running backs only accounted for 24 of those yards.

Indiana wasn’t that successful on Saturday. Running back T.J. Harden rushed for 48 yards and one touchdown. He had another taken away by a penalty.

However, the Hoosiers certainly did a passable job against the UCLA running attack. The Bruins averaged a so-so 3.7 yards per carry and rushed for 96 yards overall. It wasn’t quite at the level Hawaii managed, but it was still well within the realm of success.

2. Keep up the good work on turnover margin

Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Amare Ferrell (25) celebrates with defensive back Shawn Asbury II (1) and defensive back Josh Sanguinetti (19) after intercepting a pass in the second half against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Indiana gets an A-plus in this department. The Hoosiers had no turnovers of their own, though a couple of tipped Kurtis Rourke passes came close. Indiana didn’t fumble the ball at all.

The Hoosiers’ defense forced two turnovers, including one on UCLA’s first play of the game. Sure, UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers helped by dropping back into the path of his running back, but the Hoosiers pounced on the loose ball to set up their second touchdown drive of the game.

Winning teams win the turnover battle almost every time. Indiana was stout in this department.

3. Keep up the good work in the kicking game

A spanner was thrown into the works on this key when kicker Derek McCormick was listed on the pregame injury availability report as being out. McCormick had put nine of his 11 kickoffs into the end zone in Indiana’s first two games.

Alejandro Quintero and Quinn Warren both handled kickoffs for the Hoosiers. UCLA had four kick returns and one of Quintero’s kickoffs sailed out of bounds, so McCormick was missed.

Nicolas Radicic’s field goal skills were never needed as Indiana found paydirt on each of its scoring drives. Radicic made all six extra points. This key assumed a closer game, but it didn’t pan out that way.

Score prediction

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) celebrates after the game against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

I had foreseen an Indiana victory way back in July when I did my Big Ten preseason predictions. I saw no reason to believe since then that Indiana didn’t have what it took to defeat the Bruins.

I cited the difference in game weeks. Indiana had two games under its belt, while UCLA had just one. I thought this was crucial in terms of how comfortable both teams would be.

I think this played out as I saw it. UCLA never looked like it was ever going to wrest control from the Hoosiers after Indiana got off to a quick 14-0 start. The Bruins looked unsure in ways the Hoosiers never did and it showed on the scoreboard and in the Bruins’ lack of execution and mistakes.

I predicted a 28-13 Indiana victory. I got the 13 exactly right for the Bruins, but I didn’t anticipate the ease with which Indiana was able to move the ball on the Bruins. I keep selling the Hoosiers short in one department or another in the score prediction. One of these days, I’ll get it all calibrated properly.

We’ll give it all another go next week.

Related stories on Indiana football

• INDIANA DEFEATS UCLA IN LARGEST BIG TEN ROAD WIN SINCE 2001: Indiana hammered UCLA 42-13 in the Rose Bowl. It was Indiana's biggest road win since 2001. CLICK HERE.

• MAYBE INDIANA AVOIDS THE CARTOON ANVIL? Todd Golden writes about how this Indiana team might avoid the pratfalls the hurt the Hoosiers in the past. CLICK HERE.

• HOOSIERS UNFAZED: Jack Ankony writes about how the Hoosiers remained calm under pressure - even when it was self-inflicted. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: Read all of Indiana coach Curt Cignetti's comments after Indiana's 42-13 win over UCLA. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE BLOG: Read about Indiana's 42-13 win over UCLA as it unfolded. CLICK HERE.