The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 42-28 Win Over Maryland

Take a look at what we got right and wrong from Indiana’s win over the Terrapins.

Todd Golden | Sep 29, 2024

Indiana's Justice Ellison (6) scores during the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In this story:

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Some of the most remarkable accomplishments Indiana has achieved this season are rooted in maintaining excellence in areas that might be considered mundane.

Watching college football apart from Indiana’s 42-28 win over Maryland over the weekend drives home how important that simple trait can be.

For example, Indiana kicker Nicolas Radicic has not missed a field goal all season and didn’t even have to attempt one Saturday. He also hasn’t missed an extra point. Missed field goals played an out-size role in other Big Ten games – such as Washington’s loss at Rutgers on Friday and missed field goals by both Illinois and Penn State in their game Saturday.

Staying with special teams, punter James Evans – rarely seen these days – has only had two punts this season that weren’t either 38 yards or more or downed inside the 20.

Here’s another one. Indiana completed at least 50% of its passes in third down situations in every game this season.

Another one – Maryland’s 75-yard touchdown run on Saturday was the first time Indiana has conceded a gain of more than 33 yards all season. By comparison, Indiana has had 11 plays of 33 yards or more.

These are the kinds of things winning teams do, and I’m sure with a deeper dive into the statistics I could find several more.

What feels right about Indiana’s 5-0 start is how rooted in good, fundamental football it has been. Nothing in any of Indiana’s victories has felt fluky. There hasn’t been an odd bounce or a controversial official’s call that’s delivered any of the wins for the Hoosiers.

Indiana does all of the normal, winning football things correctly. Positive reinforcement means that consistency becomes habit. It’s where every football team wants to be, and the Hoosiers are in that rarely visited zone right now. It will be fascinating to see how long Indiana can keep it up and what kind of ride their mastery of the mundane takes them.

Let’s see how our predictions and three keys lined up with the real thing.

1. Take Away Tai Felton

Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Tai Felton (10) warms up before a game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Entering the game, Maryland wide receiver Tai Felton averaged more than 10 receptions per game, had at least one touchdown catch and had no fewer than 117 receiving yards in each of the Terrapins’ four games.

On Saturday, Felton had 5 catches for 38 yards. There is an asterisk attached. Felton was injured early in the second half after he had three catches on Maryland’s first second half drive. His injury was not disclosed after the game.

When Curt Cignetti was asked about Felton after the game, he dismissed the question given that Felton got hurt. I wish he would have elaborated a bit, because it’s not as if Felton was gone for the entire game. He was in there long enough to have an impact.

To wit, Felton had only 2 catches for 7 yards at halftime. The week before against Villanova, Felton had 8 catches for 57 yards in the first quarter alone. Injury or not, Indiana was doing something right.

2. Continue To Avoid Turnovers

Maryland Terrapins defensive back Jalen Huskey (22) celebrates with teammates after an interception against the Indiana Hoosiersduring the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

A rare whiff in the three keys for the Hoosiers. Indiana didn’t have a turnover in its first four games. Kurtis Rourke threw two interceptions in the first quarter alone, and the Hoosiers would go on to give the ball away four times overall. Turnover differential was a potentially devastating minus-four.

Indiana still managed 510 yards of total offense and put 42 points on the board, so the offense hummed along just fine when Indiana secured the ball.

On top of that? Indiana’s defense didn’t let Maryland get anything from the turnovers it forced. The Terrapins didn’t score on any of the series the Hoosiers handed to them. So the Hoosiers failed the turnover tale miserably, but lived to tell about it.

3. Be Prepared For Bad Weather

The Indiana Hoosiers student section cheers before a game against the Maryland Terrapins at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

When the predictions story was written on Wednesday, no one was quite sure how Hurricane Helene was going to affect Saturday’s game. The only thing that was certain in the forecasts was that Helene would push a mass of precipitation ahead of it in a northerly direction. Some of the predicted cones had Helene headed directly toward Indiana. Some had the storm curling west with minimal effect on the Hoosier State.

As it happened, the truth was somewhere in-between. Helene did slow to a crawl over Kentucky, and it did push a mass of rain in front of it. Bloomington was in a near-constant state of rain from Friday morning into Saturday night.

However, it wasn’t the kind of monsoon that had a huge impact on the game conditions. It rained, it likely made the ball slippery, but the wind had died down to a normal breeze through most of the game. The only time the wind was noticeable was on Friday night when the tropical depression conditions came closest to Bloomington.

This wasn’t as bad as Indiana soakers that jump immediately to mind – Ohio State 2021, Idaho 2022 are recent examples. I covered a Northwestern game at Indiana in 1999 that was a deluge from start to finish. That’s my all-time washout in Bloomington.

I don’t think any of Indiana’s four turnovers could be blamed on the conditions. None of Maryland’s shortcomings were weather-related, either. So Indiana was prepared for bad weather, got semi-bad weather, and handled it just fine.

Score prediction

Indiana's Cedarius Doss (13) and JoJo Johnson (3) celebrate being 5-0 after the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I don’t gamble on the teams I cover and I never will (it’s illegal for starters, due to the media potentially having insider info, and is a red-letter violation of journalism ethics even if it was legal), but I wish I had the same kind of prescience when wagering on other sports that I do when predicting game scores for Indiana football.

I did not get the 38-24 prediction exactly right – Indiana scored four more points than I thought they would – but I hit the bullseye on the margin. I predicted a two-touchdown win for the Hoosiers, and that’s exactly what they provided.

My Hoosiers On SI colleague Jack Ankony also predicted a 38-24 victory in a prediction published elsewhere, so great minds think alike.

Maybe I shouldn’t break my arm patting myself on the back, though. Indiana’s consistency kind of makes predicting their outcomes relatively easy. This is what happens when a team is as consistent as the Hoosiers have been so far.

1. Take Away Tai Felton

2. Continue To Avoid Turnovers

3. Be Prepared For Bad Weather

Score prediction

Related stories on Indiana football