The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 47-10 Triumph Over Michigan State

How did Hoosiers On SI do on its pregame keys and its prediction?

Indiana's Ty Son Lawton silences the crowd after a touchdown run against Michigan State during the second quarter on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

EAST LANSING, Mich. – What kind of life is being led if you can’t laugh at yourself sometimes? Self-deprecation is a virtue. For sportswriters, their thoughts are all on record. It makes it easy to poke fun at oneself when the passage of time reveals that you were a bit off -the-mark when trying to predict the future.

In my case, one of the first columns I wrote for Hoosiers On SI was my belief that the Hoosiers were going to be pretty good in 2024. “Three Reasons To Feel Optimistic About Indiana Football” the headline blared back in August.

The humor-in-hindsight starts with what we in this business call a deckhead. It’s the sub-headline under the main one. In my Aug. 13 Todd’s Take column, the deckhead said:

“Seven wins? Really? It's not going out on a limb to be an attainable goal for the Hoosiers.”

How daring of me!

I cited running back depth, quarterback Kurtis Rourke, and a kind schedule as my reasons for optimism. I was right on all counts, and at the time, I thought I was being ambitious in parlaying those plusses into a 7-5 prediction for the season. I concluded the column with the following paragraph.

“Assuming Indiana takes care of its non-conference flotsam, that puts Indiana at 7-5 for the season and in a bowl game. Can I believe I just wrote that? It's an optimistic outcome, but one I think is attainable.”

At the time, it seemed I was really putting myself out there to suggest the woebegone Hoosiers could go 7-5 after being so poor in the previous three seasons.

Now? It seems quaintly unambitious. The Hoosiers have rocketed past anyone’s most optimistic prediction for 2024.

So it’s easy to have a laugh at my own expense. Heck, at least I wasn’t one of the voters in the Big Ten’s preseason media poll who had the Hoosiers 17th out of 18 teams. Imagine how they feel.

Here is a breakdown of how our three keys and our prediction for the Michigan State game played out:

1. Get Michigan State Off The Field

Michigan State Spartans running back Nate Carter (5) gets tackled by Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Shawn Asbury II (1) during the first quarter at Spartan Stadium. / Dale Young-Imagn Images

This was cited as a key because Michigan State ranked fourth in the Big Ten and 27th nationally in time of possession. On average, the Spartans averaged 31:48 of possession time per game entering Saturday’s contest.

The Spartans’ time of possession on Saturday wasn’t bad – believe it or not, they had the ball for just over a minute more than Indiana did – but it’s what you do with that possession that matters most.

Michigan State had 205 yards of offense, managed only 15 first downs and had only five third-down conversions. Indiana had seven sacks and 15 tackles for loss. Michigan State leading running backs Kay’ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter were completely shut down. Lynch-Adams had 10 rushing yards. Carter had 6 yards.

So while Michigan State managed to keep the ball, it endured a lot of pain while it had it. And the Hoosiers succeeded wildly in getting the Spartans off the field.

2. Get Zach Horton Involved In Pass Attack

Indiana Hoosiers tight end Zach Horton (44) celebrates after the Indiana Hoosiers sealed the win with another touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. / Dale Young-Imagn Images

With James Madison in 2023, tight end Zach Horton got more involved in the passing attack as the season progressed. Horton had 17 of his 27 catches in the final five games of the season.

I thought, and keep thinking, Horton could write his own ticket if given the chance to work the spaces in the field opened up when Indiana’s receivers spread the secondary and/or with the threat of Indiana’s runners and Kurtis Rourke’s RPO game keeping linebackers and other spies busy.

As it was, Horton was targeted just twice and had one catch, but that one catch was impactful. Rourke found the tight end after going through his progressions for a 17-yard touchdown strike.

So we’ll declare victory on this one. Horton did get involved in the passing attack for six points. That’s all one can ask.

3. Don’t Get Rattled By The Crowd

Michigan State fans look on after an Indiana touchdown during the second quarter on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Spartan Stadium wasn’t quite the cauldron of swirling fan passion Curt Cignetti thought it might be (it was his first trip there as well as mine). It was a good crowd, mind you, as 68,423 was the official attendance, with only the top corners of the upper deck going unoccupied.

Regardless of what the demeanor of the crowd may or may not have been, the Hoosiers handled it all just fine. Some players mentioned they heard “overrated” chants from the students and that it fired them up. This team puts chips on its own shoulders for fun, so it certainly doesn’t need extra motivation from the opposing fans.

The closing argument on this key is that Indiana scored 47 unanswered points on the road. It would say that’s definitive evidence Indiana never got rattled.

Prediction

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles, right, is tackled by Indiana's Shawn Asbury II during the first quarter on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At first, my notion expressed in the prediction story from Thursday, “My gut is telling me this game is going to be closer than Indiana’s recent games have been” seemed to be prophetic when Indiana fell behind by 10.

Ha! Joke’s on me. Indiana was just teasing everyone, most of all, the Spartans. Forty-seven unanswered points later, my prediction of a 28-13 Indiana victory looks absurdly conservative.

I can take solace in the fact that the Hoosiers have made fools of experts all season long. Even for those, like me, who were optimistic going into the season, the line forms well out the door as far as anyone believing a 9-0 season was remotely possible.

Related stories on Indiana football

• IS INDIANA'S OFFENSE OR DEFENSE BETTER?: According to Todd's Take? It doesn't matter because you have the luxury of both as an Indiana fan. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA'S ROURKE PLAN: Indiana's staff and Kurtis Rourke worked together to get him on the field on Saturday at Michigan State. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA ROARS BACK TO BEAT MICHIGAN STATE: The 13th-ranked Hoosiers trailed for the first time this season, but scored 47 unanswered points to move to a school-record 9-0 mark. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: What Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said after Indiana defeated Michigan State 47-10. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE BLOG: Read about how the game played out in real time with the Hoosiers On SI live blog. CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI'S SUCCESS AT INDIANA WAS MIRRORED AT ELON: The head coaching job Curt Cignetti has previously had the most closely approximates what he's done at Indiana was his stint at Elon. Hoosiers On SI talked to some of Cignetti's Elon colleagues to find out how he makes it all work. CLICK HERE.