The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 52-14 victory over Charlotte

Take a look at what we got right and wrong from Indiana’s final nonconference game of the season.

Indiana's Ke'Shawn Williams (5) runs during the Indiana versus Charlotte football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana coach Curt Cignetti raised some eyebrows when he mentioned the exodus of the crowd at halftime during the Hoosiers’ season-opening win over Florida International.

Apart from when Cignetti was asked about the subject during the Inside Indiana Football radio show the following week, the topic hasn’t been brought up since. It’s probably just as well that Cignetti has put it on the backburner.

It was worth mentioning at the time to plant a seed in the minds of fans, but it’s not something you want to harp on constantly.

A thought occurred to me as I watched Indiana dominate Charlotte on its way to a 52-14 victory over the 49ers.

Indiana is its own worst enemy when it comes to maintaining the attention of the crowd. Not due to anything the Hoosiers are doing wrong, but for everything they’re doing right.

The domination displayed by Indiana has been so thorough that every home game has been decided by halftime. Charlotte put up a good fight for much of the first half, trailing just 17-14 with 5:19 left in the second quarter, but two touchdowns in the final 3:05 of the first half took away any doubt about what the outcome would be.

On a hot day – kickoff temperature was 80 degrees and the mercury rose throughout the game – with no protection from the sun inside Memorial Stadium, I can’t really blame a fan for making the decision to exit stage left.

This dynamic will change as Indiana goes further into Big Ten play with the stakes raised. For now? Indiana’s domination gives fans everything they need to see by halftime.

The final score wasn’t too far off the rout Hoosiers On SI predicted. Let’s see how our predictions and three keys lined up with the real thing.

1. Don’t get lulled into complacency by Charlotte’s quarterback situation

Indiana's James Carpenter (99) pressures Charlotte's Trexler Ivey (11) during the Indiana versus Charlotte football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Trexler Ivey was the third quarterback to start a game for the 49ers in four games after injuries knocked out Max Brown and Deshawn Purdie.

Ivey had led a Charlotte comeback against Gardner-Webb for a 27-26 victory the week before with an 11 of 12 passing effort for 142 yards and 2 touchdown passes.

Honestly, I think Ivey played reasonably well while Indiana also didn’t get lulled into complacency if that makes sense.

Ivey completed 14 of 23 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t get rattled when a touchdown got taken off the board – Charlotte scored one play later – and played mistake-free football.

On the other hand, Indiana will take any game where it only concedes 119 passing yards. The Hoosiers’ bigger problem was defending the run – Charlotte was over 5 yards per carry for much of the game before they finished at 4.2 per carry.

2. Run the ball mercilessly

Indiana's Ty Son Lawton (17) runs during the Indiana versus Charlotte football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mission accomplished. The 49ers seemed ripe for the picking after James Madison ran for 194 yards in Week 1 and North Carolina amassed 269 rushing yards in Week 2.

Indiana used its multi-pronged running attack to devastating effect. Indiana rushed for 222 yards, averaged a healthy 5.4 yards per carry and six different runners had at least 16 rushing yards.

All of Indiana’s primary backs and quarterback Kurtis Rourke averaged 5 yards or more. Rourke (8), Kaelon Black (7.9), Justice Ellison (6.4) and Ty Son Lawton (5) all reached that dominant threshold.

Indiana’s offensive line deserves a lot of credit too. The holes Indiana’s backs are exploiting have been sizable.

3. Calibrate the nasty

Indiana's Aiden Fisher (4) and Mikail Kamara (6) wrap up Charlotte's Bryce Kennon (86) during the Indiana versus Charlotte football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana had five penalties (four accepted) in the 42-13 win at UCLA on Sept. 14 for targeting, roughing the passer or unnecessary roughness. CJ West’s targeting penalty was later rescinded, but that’s still a huge haul of penalty yardage.

Indiana needed to maintain its nasty defensive edge, but without going over the line into self-inflicted harm. In this mission, the Hoosiers were wildly successful.

Indiana only had three penalties in the game at all and just one of them was a defensive penalty – a pass interference call on Jamari Sharpe with 4:28 left in the game.

Meanwhile, Indiana still put some licks on the 49ers. Linebacker Jailin Walker, defensive end Mikail Kamara, Amare Ferrell, Jamier Johnson and Mario Landino were among the Hoosiers who put hard, but legal, hits on the 49ers.

Cignetti hates penalties so I’m sure he was pleased with the lack of laundry on the field.

Score prediction                    

I went big with the prediction this week as a 49-6 victory was predicted over Charlotte. My rationale being that I had missed Indiana superlatives in the first three games and it caused me to play the score predictions close to the vest in hindsight.

Indiana’s 52-14 victory wasn’t too far off the mark. Charlotte was a tad better moving the ball than I anticipated, but apart from that it’s probably the best score prediction yet.

We’ll give it all another go next week. Maryland will be a bit tougher to get a handle on.

Related stories on Indiana football

• WHAT IF INDIANA GOES BOWLING? A look at where the Hoosiers could go if they maintain their path to bowl eligibility. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA CRUISES TO 4-0: Indiana pulled away Charlotte to earn a 52-14 victory that made the Hoosiers 4-0 on the season. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CURT CIGNETTI SAID: Everything Indiana coach Curt Cignetti had to say after Indiana's 52-14 victory over Charlotte. CLICK HERE.

• TODD'S TAKE: Indiana has an embarrassment of riches to rely on offensively. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE THE GAME AS IT HAPPENED: The live blog from Indiana's 52-14 victory over Charlotte. Read about the game as it happened. CLICK HERE.