The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 77-3 Victory Over Western Illinois

Take a look at what we got right and wrong from Indiana’s Week 2 triumph against Western Illinois.

Indiana's Mikail Kamara (6) celebrates his sack of Western Illinois' Nathan Lamb (12) during the Indiana versus Western Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Each week at Hoosiers On SI, we make a score prediction on the Indiana football game along with three keys to the game that we think will matter most.

Last week was my first go-around with the prediction and three keys – hi, I'm Todd Golden, the new guy at Hoosiers On SI – and I did OK. With Western Illinois at Memorial Stadium for a Friday night tilt, would I see into the crystal ball clearly in Week 2?

Matchups between FBS and FCS teams are hard to predict. Not necessarily for the outcome – only the best FCS teams like South Dakota State or North Dakota State are a true threat to a Power Four school – but because you don’t know when a team is going to call off the dogs.

Western Illinois was so bad on Friday that even when Indiana went to its reserves early in the second half, the Leathernecks kept handing the Hoosiers easy scoring opportunities. Indiana’s last two touchdowns were scored via a pick-six and via a 10-yard drive after another Western Illinois turnover.

In other words, there was no point where Indiana really let up, even when they tried to. So the numbers skyrocketed on the scoreboard and in the yardage column. That doesn’t always happen in these games, but it did to record-setting effect against the hapless Leathernecks.

So how did that influence the predictions? Let’s start with the predicted three keys:

1. Let Kurtis Rourke show what he can do … but not for too long

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) runs the ball while Western Illinois Leathernecks defensive lineman Trace Brown (95) defends in the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

This couldn’t have gone better for the Hoosiers or for the prediction.

Kurtis Rourke had a near-seamless day. He completed 15 of 17 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns.

In the predictions, I wanted to see Rourke take some shots downfield. He answered in the affirmative via touchdown passes to Andison Coby and Elijah Sarratt. I wanted to see how he dissected his downfield options with really good protection. On the 71-yard pass to Sarratt, Rourke patiently waited for Sarratt to beat his man to get open.

I also said I wanted to see if he could keep a drive alive with his legs. He did that once in the first half, though to scary effect as he tripped going out of bounds, but Rourke was OK.

Finally, I also said, “And I’d like to see it all before The Marching Hundred takes to the field at halftime.”

Rourke came out to play one series in the second half before he called it a night. Three other Indiana quarterbacks got to play. Just want you want in a game like this.

2. A lot of players need to play

Indiana's Tyler Cherry (15) directs the offense during the Indiana versus Western Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Indiana used 55 players in its opening win over Florida International, but the real acid test was comparing the Western Illinois contest to the last FCS opponent Indiana played. When Indiana State visited in 2023, 73 Hoosiers played in the 41-7 Indiana victory.

In a 77-3 historic blowout? Surely the majority of the Hoosiers in uniform would get their chance.

Indeed they did. A total of 78 Hoosiers participated in the Western Illinois game – and a few who aren’t normally in the two-deep got a chance to shine.

Linebacker Rolijah Hardy had a pick-six interception and a forced fumble via a sack. Defensive back Terry Jones Jr. was co-second-leading tackler with 5 tackles. Running back Khobie Martin was second-leading rusher with 59 yards. Wide receiver Charlie Becker got a touchdown via a 3-yard jet sweep touchdown run.

3. Score a special teams or defensive touchdown

PICK-6. Rolijah Hardy. @IndianaFootball is scoring all over the field tonight 🙌#B1GFootball on @bigtennetwork 📺 pic.twitter.com/bFpe7CQpOk

— Indiana On BTN (@IndianaOnBTN) September 7, 2024

This one wasn’t looking so hot going into the fourth quarter. Myles Price gave it a shot on a couple of punt returns and Ke’Shawn Williams also had a 14-yard punt return, but there just weren’t many opportunities for the returners to show their stuff.

However, patience is a virtue, and early in the fourth quarter, Indiana’s defense got on the board. Hardy stepped in front of a forced pass over the middle by Western Illinois quarterback Nathan Lamb and scored an easy 12-yard touchdown.

Score prediction

The final score up on the scoreboard after the Indiana versus Western Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

I am generally conservative when making score predictions. As mentioned above, dominance on the field doesn’t always translate to the scoreboard if the winning team takes it easy once the outcome is in-hand.

So when I predicted a 55-0 outcome, I thought I was properly balancing Indiana’s expected dominance to go along with equally-expected easing off the gas pedal late in the game. My predicted score is a big number and margin to reach, even against a poor team. Oddsmakers took the same tack with an opening line of 42.5 points.

In my head? I knew it could be worse for Western Illinois, but it rarely is.

As it turned out, I really underestimated just how bad Western Illinois was. It is not hyperbole to think that Indiana could have hung 100 on the Leathernecks if they really wanted to. The Leathernecks’ defense just wasn’t up to the mission, and Indiana was ruthlessly surgical in its precision.

So while the 77-3 final score was a margin much wider than I predicted it would be, I take a brownie point or two for getting the general tenor of the game right.

We’ll give it all another go next week.

Related stories on Indiana football

• INDIANA EARNS RECORD-SETTING WIN: Indiana sets multiple records in its 77-3 rout over Western Illinois. CLICK HERE.

• TODD'S TAKE: Indiana got an easy win and Western Illinois got paid. It was a record night at Memorial Stadium, but at some point? The domination is diminished given the weakness of the opponent and fans are left watching a game that just doesn't have much in it for them. CLICK HERE.

• SARRATT COMES ALIVE: After a quiet Week 1, wide receiver Elijah Sarratt had a dynamic game against Western Illinois. CLICK HERE.

• INDIANA DEFENSE NOT SATISFIED: The Hoosiers have allowed 10 points in two games, but slippage at the end of the first halves have been an annoyance. CLICK HERE.