Todd’s Take: Indiana In The Football Poll – Too Hot, Too Cold Or Just Right?

Is Indiana ranked too low at No. 13? We look at the angles to assess the Hoosiers’ proper place in the pecking order.

Todd Golden | Oct 29, 2024

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) runs the ball for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

In this story:

Indiana Hoosiers

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – When I hear the debate over a team’s place in the poll, it turns my head a bit. Too low? Too high? What are the voters thinking?

There was some of this after Indiana did not move up in the latest poll released Monday – though the Hoosiers did receive quite a few more poll points (952 from 830) from the previous week.

I have never voted in the AP football poll, but I was an AP voter in the men’s basketball poll from 2022-24. I still would be if I hadn’t switched jobs to a non-AP member outlet.

I’ve sat in that voter’s seat, so I can provide perspective on how this works. The process isn’t difficult, but it’s often misunderstood.

One thing to remember is that every fanbase in the country has the same mindset – We are the sun and everything orbits around us. That’s fine. Fans are fans. When I put on my fan hat, I’m the same way.

When you’re a poll voter, you put that aside. There is no “sun” to orbit around. Every team is its own entity to be judged on its own merits. The AP specifically tells voters not to give their own teams any favoritism in the voting. You’re instructed to avoid bias of any kind.

If you’re a journalist who has any sense of objectivity, this is not hard to do. Voters take these standards seriously when they vote.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t flaws in the way the system works. Every voter applies a subjective standard via their own process, what they prioritize in a resume and what they don’t. That’s why the AP has a large pool of voters representing every region of the country.

An often-cited problem with the weekly polls is that teams that start the season ranked a certain way get a head start over teams that emerge like Indiana. There’s truth in that.

In some cases, it takes a long time for the voting pool to readjust. Michigan State men’s basketball, for example, was getting votes in the 2024 poll long after it was clear the Spartans didn’t really deserve it. You could make a case Ole Miss football is in that boat right now.

Baked in perceptions are hard to shake. On the other hand, if a team did nothing to deserve a drop, you should have a very good reason to leap-frog one team over another. I would occasionally have a “correction week” on my own ballot from time-to-time, but for the most part, your pecking order shouldn’t deviate wildly or your standards lack credibility.

It would be naïve to think that teams with winning reputations don’t get the benefit of the doubt. It’s not fair, but it’s human nature, even if voters should do everything they can to fight it. Indiana football is still playing catch-up in this regard, while a “brand” like Ohio State gets far more leeway.

My beef with the football poll is that SEC teams seem to get the benefit of the doubt both in winning and losing.

Texas A&M jumped over Indiana after it pulled away against then-No. 8 LSU, but it was at home and the win was expected. Two weeks ago, No. 2 Georgia jumped over Ohio State and Penn State even though the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions did nothing to deserve being jumped. No. 19 Ole Miss is still hanging around in the top 20 even though they haven’t beaten anyone and have one bad loss, while Michigan gets drop-kicked out of the poll with a near-exact profile.

Oops. Even I can fall victim to that everything-revolves-around-my-area-of-focus trap. Notice I failed to mention that No. 4 Miami jumped over Texas this week? In our subjective moments, we all choose our own criteria that fits our own biases. As a voter, you have to fight against it and be as fair as possible.

So on to the Hoosiers. What’s their case? What goes against them? What about the teams ahead of them?

I think it’s accurate to note that the Hoosiers are No. 13 because they started at a non-ranked position and aren’t a traditional football power. A lot of the country, and a lot of poll voters, are still playing catch-up.

Indiana has only been on true national TV twice, and most voters are preoccupied with their own teams on Saturdays anyway. One thing I’d change about the AP football poll logistics? The poll should be released on Monday so voters have a day to study teams outside their own focus.

If I were voting, Indiana has two plusses and one major hard-to-overcome minus by the criteria I would value.

On the plus side, the first one is simple: The Hoosiers are unbeaten. Regardless of the strength of the opponent, maintaining a perfect record is difficult, and it deserves weight on that basis alone. Each week, the pressure builds to keep it going. Indiana has made it look easy. It’s an impressive check mark in the Hoosiers’ favor.

Another positive for Indiana is its underlying foundation of quality. In the NCAA team statistics, Indiana ranks in the top 20 in the following categories. It’s easier to just sort by rank because it’s a long list. Sit down for a bit to take this all in.

1st – Winning percentage (tie).

2nd – Scoring offense, fourth down conversion defense.

3rd – Team passing efficiency, third down conversion percentage.

4th – Rushing defense.

5th – Total defense.

6th – Total offense, completion percentage, tackles for loss allowed.

7th – Scoring defense.

8th – Passing yards per completion.

10th – Sacks allowed.

12th – Turnovers lost (tie).

13th – Defensive touchdowns.

14th – Red zone offense, team sacks, turnover margin, punting, first down defense (tie).

18th – Fumbles lost (tie), passes had intercepted (tie).

20th – Team passing efficiency defense, punt return defense.

When a team is ranked in so many different categories in every phase of the game, it shows that they’re no fluke. Quality football is being played when there are such underlying positive qualities, regardless of the strength of schedule.

Those last three words – strength of schedule – represent Indiana’s biggest demerit. Hoosiers fans hate to hear it, but the numbers don’t lie. Indiana’s schedule is currently ranked 106th. Forget ranked teams. Indiana’s strength of schedule is the worst of any Power Four conference team. Pittsburgh is the only other Power Four school with a strength of schedule in the hundreds.

It’s a big problem. Football teams can’t control their conference schedules, but they have total control over their nonconference schedules. Indiana’s three nonconference foes were/are all poor. It’s worse when you consider that Indiana dropped a quality opponent – Louisville – a year ago to play FCS Western Illinois.

With a weak schedule, there are few quality wins to come by. Indiana has not beaten a team that’s currently in the top 25 or that is receiving votes.

These are facts, mind you, not opinions, and they’re inconvenient ones for the Hoosiers.

From the voters’ point of view, there’s not a lot of meat in Indiana’s sandwich in terms of quality wins. Some of the one-loss teams ahead of Indiana – No. 2 Georgia (at Texas), No. 6 Texas (at Michigan, at Vanderbilt), No. 7 Tennessee (Alabama), No. 8 Notre Dame (at Texas A&M) and No. 10 Texas A&M (Missouri, LSU) – all have wins that eclipse Indiana’s best win.

The only one-loss team ahead of Indiana with a truly damning defeat is Notre Dame – thanks to that inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois. But the Fighting Irish have been good in their other games and made a bit of a statement with their 37-point win against then-No. 24 Navy.

On the other hand, there are some one-loss teams with as much filler in their resume as Indiana. You could make a strong case No. 4 Ohio State is living on reputation, as their strongest win is either Iowa or Nebraska, nearly identical to Indiana’s strongest wins over Washington and Nebraska. That goes double for No. 11 Clemson, as the Tigers have one loss and their best win is Virginia?

Nearly all of the other unbeaten teams ahead of Indiana have better wins. A good argument could be made that No. 11 Iowa State does not have a better win, though the Cyclones did beat Iowa on the road, which is ever-so-slightly better than Indiana’s best victory.

I would say Indiana should unequivocally be ahead of Clemson, but I’m not sure the Hoosiers deserve to be ahead of any other team currently in front of them. A case can be made for Indiana to be above Ohio State or Iowa State, but it’s super close.

Here’s the good news. While Indiana did not move up in the latest poll released Sunday, the Hoosiers received quite a few more poll points (952 from 830) over the previous week.

It won’t take much movement for Indiana to make a sizable jump. The Hoosiers are within 100 points of Iowa State, Clemson, Texas A&M, BYU and Notre Dame.

With 62 voters, it doesn’t take much to make up Indiana’s deficit against teams ahead of the Hoosiers if someone loses or is unimpressive in a victory. On the flip side, no pursuing team is within 246 points of Indiana.

For now, I’d apply the Goldilocks standard to Indiana. Too hot, too cold or just right. I’d say the Hoosiers are pretty close to just right at No. 13 – though Clemson took the best spoonfuls of porridge before the Hoosiers got a chance to sit down and eat.

Related stories on Indiana football