GameDay Prediction: Breaking Down Indiana's Season Opener at Iowa, Making a Pick

Indiana was 7-0 against the spread last year, the only school in the country to overachieve like that, and were 6-1 straight up, with the only loss to national runner-up Ohio State. Now they're back for more, but there are still doubters everywhere. Expect at least one.

IOWA CITY, Iowa – When Indiana won eight games in 2019, something that hadn't been done in Bloomington in more than 30 years, the critics said it was a cute story and all, but this stinging fact remained:

They didn't beat a single good team.

What was painful about the slam was that it was partially true. Check that, it was TOTALLY true. 

Their five Big Ten wins came against Maryland, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska and Purdue, who finished with a combined 17-43 record. Their three nonconference wins were over Ball State, Eastern Illinois and Connecticut, who were a combined 8-28. None of those eight teams finished the season with an overall winning record.  

Which brought us to 2020, when the non-believers were still out in full force in the COVID-shortened season. Indiana was an underdog to No. 8 Penn State in the opener – and won anyway. They were an underdog to No. 23 Michigan – and won anyway. They were an underdog to No 16 Wisconsin in Madison – and won there, too.

I don't gamble on sports, but my pal Walter Ego weighs in these point spread matters for me, and last year I predicted that Indiana victory over Penn State in the opener. Predicted the Michigan win, too. In fact, we were 6-0 against the spread, even predicting that the Hoosiers would cover at Ohio State as 21-point dogs and losing by only 7. I did miss the Wisconsin game, and didn't mind it one bit.

I was a believer in that Indiana team last year, and they proved me right. And I'm still believing this year, ranking the Hoosiers No. 2 in my preseason Big Ten rankings.

And, of course, I've been roasted for that. Iowa fans have ripped me, Wisconsin fans have ripped me, even the arrogant Michigan fans have ripped me. Purdue fans, too, of course.

But I believe.

And that takes us to today here in Iowa City, where the disrespect meter is still off the charts. The opening line had Iowa as a 5.5-point favorite, and it's trickled down to 3.5 points on the gambling website Fanduel.com. 

And to that, I say phooooooey.

I believe that Indiana wins outright here in Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, and it's not just geographic bias. I truly believe Indiana is the better team with better talent, just like I said last year in the Penn State and Michigan games.

I believe the Hoosiers win in a close one, 24-20.

In breaking the game down in the past month, there are three things that stick out to me in giving the Hoosiers the edge. 

For one, Iowa is always known for breeding great offensive linemen and mauling people. That's certainly been the case in this rivalry through the years and Iowa has won three in a row and seven of the past eight. But Indiana is bigger and better now, and Iowa's offensive line, outside of All-American center Tyler Linderbaum, doesn't really impress me all that much. I think Indiana's defense can keep their running game in check, much like they did in last year's 14-6 win at Wisconsin. Maybe not THAT dominant, but close.

I also think that Indiana can force some turnovers out of Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras. He had five picks in the first two games last year, and Indiana, as we all know, led the nation in interceptions per game last year. Even with new defensive coordinator Charlton Warren on board, takeaways are still Priority 1 for the Hoosiers' defense. I think they get at least two turnovers on Saturday, and then convert them into points.

And as many of you know from all my stories this month, you know I am a huge believer in Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. who is 100 percent after working his tail off to rehab his torn ACL and be ready for this game.

Iowa's secondary is very good, but I think he'll make good decisions and I feel good that Indiana will have a more balanced attack this year. I do think Stephen Carr and Tim Baldwin Jr. will rush for at least 130 yards combined, and watch for tight end Peyton Hendershot to have a big game. He's the secret weapon today.

So there it is, 24-20 Indiana. Walter Ego loaded up on Indiana and 5.5 points when the line first game out last month, and he bet a little bit on Indiana and the money line too, So we're all over Indiana and the points as the bet.

Let's get the show on the road.

GAMEDAY LIVE BLOG: Launches at 2:30 p.m. ET on HoosiersNow.com 

HOW TO WATCH: Here's everything you need to know about how to watch Saturday's Indiana-Iowa game, with game time, TV, and the latest on the point spread information. CLICK HERE