Points Spreads: Unbeaten Indiana Still an Underdog to Michigan

Indiana is the higher-ranked team and has the better overall record coming into Saturday's game with Michigan in Bloomington, but it's the Wolverines who are still the favorites on online gambling sites and casinos.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana has become the darlings of college football early in the season, winning its first two Big Ten games for the first time since 1991 and doing it in dramatic style.

But when it comes to impressing the bookmakers who set the betting lines for casinos and sportsbooks, Indiana is still Indiana. The Hoosiers – despite having the better record, a higher national ranking and home-field advantage against Michigan this Saturday — are 3.5-point UNDERDOGS in this critical Big Ten East division showdown.

History has a lot to do with that, because the Hoosiers, currently ranked No. 13 in both polls, haven't beaten Michigan since 1987. The Wolverines are ranked No. 23 after being upset by Michigan State last week. They were ranked No. 13 heading into that game.

Indiana coach Tom Allen was questioned about how to handle being a favorite against Michigan on Saturday. That didn't happen, of course, but the question of dealing with success certainly matters.

"I'm not sure how long its been since Indiana has been favored over Michigan should that turn out to be the case. Those are things that our guys are going to have to learn how to deal with,'' Allen said.

'Those things don't mean anything, and I get that, but we have to make sure the players understand that. It's going to take a lot of leadership from our coaching staff and leadership from the leaders on the team. We'll bring the guys together, and we'll talk about this.''

If you aren't familiar with how gambling on college football works, when a point spread is set like this, it does not mean that the bookmakers necessarily think that Michigan will win by that much. It's their job, when setting the lines, to find a number that attracts bets EQUALLY on both sides of the number.

Casinos and gambling sites make their money — and they make a lot of it — by collecting 10 percent or more on losing bets. Generally, if you bet $100, you win $100, but if you lose, you pay $110.

They also really never care who wins if they nail their 50/50 split of wagers. They just want all that money in the middle they collect on the lost bets. And if too much money comes in on one side during the course of the week, they will adjust that line.

Last weekend's Indiana game was a perfect example of that. The Hoosiers were favored by 11.5 points when the line was released last Monday, and it dropped to 10 at one point but finished at 13 on Saturday. In this case, it didn't matter. Indiana won by 16 points (37-21) and all tickets on Indiana cashed. Indiana won as a 6-point underdog in the opener against Penn State.

Indiana has been ranked for two weeks in a row now, entering the poll at No. 17 after the Penn State win and then moving up four spots last week thanks to losses by North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Michigan and Kansas State, all teams that were ranked ahead of them a week ago.

Being 2-0 and able to square off evenly with Michigan doesn't surprise Allen. He's been rebuilding this Indiana program nicely, and they expected to beat teams like Penn State and Michigan now.

"In my mind, we expected to being able to start doing things like this, so we've been planting those seeds,'' he said. 'We've been talking about it, and we're not surprised by what's going on here. And in the moment when it does happen, we have to live it out and how are you going to respond?

'It's going to be critical. If we can continue to get better and block out all the noise, and that's going to be positive noise, we'll be fine. We need to stay locked in and live out our mission and not blink with the positive things that keep coming at us. That allows us to say we don't care what happens, we're going to stay focused on the task at hand and we're going to get better. There's a whole bunch of things we can get better at, and that's what we can control.''

That's exactly right. In Allen's mind, being a field-goal favorite or a field-goal underdog doesn't mean anything. It's the game that matters, and the preparation that goes into it. But he knows — and all of his players know — exactly what's at stake on Saturday against Michigan, and all the perks that will come with a win.

Here are the lines for all of the Big Ten games, along with game time and TV information, and a breakdown on what the teams have done so far, both on the field and at the betting window.

Michigan at Indiana 

• GAMETIME: Noon ET
• TV: FOX Sports 1
• RECORDS: Michigan (1-1); Indiana (2-0)
• LAST WEEK: Michigan lost to Michigan State 27-24; Indiana beat Rutgers 37-21. 
• OPENING LINE: Michigan by 3.5 points
• THE SKINNY: Michigan has been hard to figure, looking great in the rout at Minnesota in the opener but then losing outright to Michigan State as a three-touchdown favorite on Saturday. Indiana is 2-0 and the darlings of college football these days, being ranked No. 13 in both polls. History is winning out on the early point spread, however, because the Hoosiers haven't beaten the Wolverines since 1987. 

Nebraska at Northwestern

• GAMETIME: Noon ET
• TV: Big Ten Network
• RECORDS: Nebraska (0-1); Northwestern (2-0)
• LAST WEEK: Nebraska did not play, Northwestern beat Iowa 21-20. 
• OPENING LINE: Northwestern by 3.5 points
• THE SKINNY: The Wildcats are off to a nice start behind Indiana grad transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey, and nearly cracked the Associated Press top-25 poll this week, missing by a spot. They've won and covered twice, including last week as a small underdog at Iowa. Nebraska did not play last week because of Wisconsin's COVIID-19 issues, and lost its opener 52-17 at Ohio State.

Michigan State at Iowa

• GAMETIME: Noon ET
• TV: ESPN
• RECORDS: Michigan State (1-1); Iowa (0-2)
• LAST WEEK: Michigan State beat Michigan 27-24; Iowa lost to Northwestern 21-20.
• OPENING LINE: Iowa by 6.5 points
• THE SKINNY: The Spartans have been the hardest Big Ten team to figure out thus far, losing the opener to Rutgers as a 12.5-point favorite, and then winning outright at Michigan as a 22-point underdog last week. That's been stunning, but Iowa's deal thus far has been disappointing. The Hawkeyes are 0-2 despite being slight favorites to both Purdue and Iowa. This will be a tough one to figure.

Purdue at Wisconsin

• GAMETIME: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• RECORDS: Purdue (2-0); Wisconsin (1-0)
• LAST WEEK: Purdue beat Illinois 31-24; Wisconsin did not play.
• OPENING LINE: Wisconsin by 8.5 points
• THE SKINNY: The No. 10-ranked Badgers have 22 positive cases, and are without their top three quarterbacks for the moment, and there is still some doubt this game will be played. A Tuesday update is expected. The Badgers won and covered their opener easily against Illinois. Purdue has won as a slight underdog vs. Iowa and then won but did not cover against Illinois after allowing two fourth-quarter touchdowns.

Maryland at Penn State

• GAMETIME: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV:  Big Ten Network
• RECORDS: Maryland (1-1); Penn State (0-2)
• LAST WEEK: Maryland beat Minnesota 45-44 in OT; Penn State lost to Ohio State 38-25. 
• OPENING LINE: Penn State by 25.5 points
• THE SKINNY: Maryland didn't mind being heavy underdogs last week, winning outright at home over Michigan despite being 19-point underdogs. Penn State drew the short straw, starting against Indiana and Ohio State, with two losses and two non-covers, including one as a 6-point favorite in the season-opening loss to Indiana. Penn State beat Maryland 59-0 a year ago and won 38-3 and  66-3 the previous two years. 

Minnesota at Illinois

• GAMETIME: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network
• RECORDS: Minnesota (0-2); Illinois (0-2)
• LAST WEEK: Minnesota lost to Maryland 45-44 in OT; Illinois lost to Purdue 31-24. 
• OPENING LINE: Minnesota by 9.5 points
• THE SKINNY: Minnesota has been the league's biggest disappointment so far, losing big as a small underdog at home in the opener with Michigan and then getting beat as a heavy favorite on Friday night at Maryland. Illinois missed 14 players last week because of COVID protocols and lost to Purdue, but covered late with two fourth-quarter touchdowns after falling behind by 21 points. The Illini were routed in the opener at Wisconsin, getting trounced 45-7. These are the two bottom teams in my Big Ten power rankings this week 

Rutgers at Ohio State

• GAMETIME: 7;30 p.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network
• RECORDS: Rutgers (1-1); Ohio State (2-0)
• LAST WEEK: Rutgers lost to Indiana 37-21; Ohio State beat Penn State 38-25
• OPENING LINE: Ohio State by 37.5 points
• THE SKINNY: The No. 3-ranked Buckeyes have won and covered (barely) in their two opening wins thus far, and are huge favorites against Rutgers. The 37.5 points is the highest line in a Big Ten game so far this season. Rutgers is much improved, but has really struggled with Ohio State since joining the Big Ten East. getting outscored 327-48 in six meetings. That's a 54-8 average, and a 46-point margin of victory.