Week 11 Games To Keep An Eye On With Indiana Football In Playoff Chase

Games elsewhere that Indiana fans should be in-tune with when it comes to the Big Ten race and the College Football Playoff rankings.

Members of the Alabama Crimson Tide defensive celebrate after a pass interception by defensive back Zabien Brown (2) to seal a victory over the Georgia Bulldogs during the fourth quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – With new status in the college football world comes a different format for the weekly look at which games beyond Indiana’s own game Hoosiers fans should keep their eyes on.

Indiana would be part of the College Football Playoff if the season ended today. The season does not, of course, end today. But since the Hoosiers are on the right track, we’re going to reconfigure things in this space.

We’ll still focus on the Big Ten picture as always as that is all very much still in flux. However, we’re switching from a focus on the Associated Press Top 25 to the College Football Playoff ranking, which determines the fate of the College Football Playoff.

For this week, we’re going to drop the strength of schedule component that we had been doing – with the possibility of adding it back if it becomes relevant. The College Football Playoff committee, in putting Indiana in the No. 8 spot, has mostly eased concerns about Indiana’s viability as a playoff team.

One could argue that Indiana’s poor strength of schedule is hurting its ranking. Probably true, but I don’t think wins by Florida International or Charlotte are going to shift the Hoosiers much one way or another this late in the season. If it becomes relevant, we’ll add it back.

Here’s what Indiana fans should be on the lookout for and whom they should root for to help the Hoosiers. All rankings in this story will be CFP rankings as they are more relevant to Indiana’s situation.

Big Ten Watch

Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) runs over Penn State Nittany Lions linebacker Dominic DeLuca (0) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. Ohio State won 20-13. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Purdue (1-7, 0-5) at No. 2 Ohio State (7-1, 4-1), Noon Saturday, FOX: Ohio State gets the Big Noon Kickoff treatment for the third straight week. This one shouldn’t be anywhere near as close as the other two (Nebraska, Penn State) were.

Indiana fans are put into the unfamiliar position of wanting the Boilermakers to succeed. One could conjure a scenario where Ohio State winning just bolsters Indiana if the Hoosiers can beat the Buckeyes on Nov. 23, but why overthink it? A second Big Ten loss would deal Ohio State an almost certain mortal blow for the Big Ten championship game, and a loss to Purdue also would severely damage Ohio State’s CFP chances.

Given that Purdue is a 37.5-point underdog? A Purdue win in Columbus is probably not a scenario anyone needs to overly concern themselves with.

• Maryland (4-4, 1-4) at No. 1 Oregon (9-0, 6-0), 7 p.m. Saturday, BTN: Another point spread for a Big Ten contender that isn’t easy on the eyes. The Ducks are a 23.5-point favorite in Eugene as the Terrapins make the long trip out West.

Obviously, a Maryland victory could put Indiana in first place by themselves if the Hoosiers beat Michigan. But like Purdue’s trip to Ohio State, it’s not a scenario that anyone should be counting on. Maryland is 1-2 in road games, but gave up 40-plus points in both of its Big Ten trips.

• Washington (5-4, 3-3) at No. 6 Penn State (7-1, 4-1), 8 p.m. Saturday, Peacock: Of all of the Big Ten games involving contenders Indiana is competing with, this one has the best chance of creating an upset. Penn State suffered another very disappointing home loss to Ohio State and is in the dreaded get-beat-twice mode of whether they can recover from the disappointment.

Washington is a tale of two teams. Unbeaten on home turf in Seattle, but winless away from home. Washington was competitive with Indiana in its Bloomington visit, so perhaps the Huskies can do Indiana a solid and shock the Big Ten with a win in Happy Valley? It’s not likely, but it’s the scenario that would benefit Indiana the most.

College Football Playoff Rankings Watch

Texas Longhorns running back Quintrevion Wisner (26) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

• Florida (4-4, 2-3) at No. 5 Texas (7-1, 3-1), Noon Saturday, ABC: A battle of which hue of orange is better? I prefer the burnt orange of Texas, but I digress.

Florida coach Billy Napier will not lose his job at the end of the season. What effect will that have on the Gators? We’ll see. Maybe the Gators rally around that news? Maybe they don’t?

Florida has been somewhat competitive against the elite level SEC teams. It lost in overtime at Tennessee, so a victory at Texas isn’t out of the question. The Longhorns have played three ranked teams in a row and had three different outcomes: an impressive win against then-ranked Oklahoma, a 30-15 home loss to Georgia and a narrow escape at Vanderbilt. Texas has to show it deserves to be a top 5 team because it hasn’t had top 5 form in its last two contests.

A Florida win is clearly the outcome that best suits the Hoosiers.

• No. 4 Miami (9-0, 5-0) at Georgia Tech (5-4, 3-3), Noon Saturday, ESPN: Miami is an interesting case as the projected ACC champion, so no matter where they’re ranked, they’re still going to be ahead of Indiana as things currently stand.

Still, a Georgia Tech upset win is the scenario Indiana fans should want. The Yellow Jackets got some attention for beating Florida State in its opening game, but that victory doesn’t look so impressive anymore. Georgia Tech has lost by double-digits in its last two games against ranked teams, though neither defeat was at home.

Georgia Bulldogs place kicker Peyton Woodring (91) kicks a field goal during the first quarter of an NCAA college football matchup Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Georgia Bulldogs defeated the Florida Gators 34-20. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• No. 3 Georgia (7-1, 5-1) at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: This is a big one both ways for the Hoosiers. A Georgia loss would obviously help Indiana make a potential climb in the rankings, but that would give Ole Miss a very good win which could affect Indiana’s ranking if the Hoosiers made themselves vulnerable with a loss. A Georgia win won’t help the current Indiana CFP ranking, but it would almost certainly end the Rebels’ CFP hopes.

My initial thought was that being on the side of eliminating as many competitors as possible, so in that vein, a Georgia win might actually be better for Indiana. On the other hand, that gives Georgia another quality win, so how helpful is that to the Hoosiers?

We’re probably overthinking it. An Ole Miss victory would create more chaos and chaos might be good for the Hoosiers if they don’t get wrapped in it themselves.

• Mississippi State (2-7, 0-5) at No. 7 Tennessee (7-1, 4-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN: Like Purdue in the Big Ten, Mississippi State was on the wrong end of a very difficult schedule in the new-look SEC. The Bulldogs played or will play three of the four would-be SEC CFP teams. Tennessee, Indiana’s would-be opponent in the current CFP bracket, is the last of them. If Ole Miss beats Georgia, they could become a fourth CFP foe for the luckless Bulldogs.

Indiana fans should hope for a Bulldogs upset, but shouldn’t get their hopes up.

• Florida State (1-8) at No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC: Life moves pretty fast. A year ago, the unbeaten Seminoles thought they were on their way to College Football Playoff glory. Now? If there was a college football Power Four draft, they’d be fighting with Purdue for the first pick.

Notre Dame has had an odd season. A good win at Texas A&M, a dominant win over then-ranked Navy, but a loss to Northern Illinois? Given all of that, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Indiana fans will get their wish – a Florida State victory.

LSU Tigers wide receiver Kyren Lacy (2) misses a pass against UCLA Bruins defensive back Croix Stewart (22) during the first half at Tiger Stadium. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

• No. 11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2) at No. 15 LSU (6-2, 3-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: If there’s one game to watch, this is it. This is effectively a playoff elimination game; certainly that’s the case for the Bayou Bengals.

Alabama’s two-loss appearance in the CFP rankings almost certainly elicited groans outside the southeast. Do they deserve it? A win over Georgia is the calling card for the Tide. A close loss at Tennessee is forgivable. A loss at Vanderbilt is less so, though this isn’t your father’s Commodores. Alabama seems to get a lot of leeway from the committee, but that’s a story for another day.

A LSU win is probably better for the Hoosiers. An Alabama win could vault them up to or even past the Hoosiers. A Tigers win likely vaults them into the rankings, but probably not past Indiana.

• Nevada (3-7, 0-4) at No. 12 Boise State (7-1, 4-0), 8 p.m. Saturday, FOX: An underplayed revelation from the CFP rankings is that Boise State isn’t getting a free pass into the CFP. The Broncos were ranked as one of the best 12 teams outright.

This is huge for Boise State, which has almost double protection from falling out of the field. Even if they slip from the Top 12, they’re still the fifth-best conference champion and would get in anyway. Their only real competition at this point is either Army or Tulane from the American Athletic Conference. If Boise State continues winning, they could even knock out one of the Power Four champions from getting a bye. Wouldn’t that be something?

Romantic though that may be, as one of those Power Four conference champion contenders, Indiana doesn’t need the Broncos stealing a bye. So Hoosiers fans should be with the Wolf Pack.

Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) warms up before the game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at LaVell Edwards Stadium. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

• No. 9 BYU (8-0, 5-0) at Utah (4-4, 1-4), 10:15 p.m. Saturday, ESPN: Some thought Indiana was ranked too low in the initial CFP rankings, but the Cougars have a legitimate beef of their own. BYU won at No. 13 SMU, the Mustangs’ only defeat, and BYU smoked No. 19 Kansas State. BYU’s schedule is stronger than Indiana’s, though they haven’t been as dominant as the Hoosiers have been.

The Holy War might offer an opportunity for those chasing BYU to have some hope. Utah, ranked at the start of the season, has been a huge disappointment, but there is talent there. BYU also hasn’t won in Salt Lake City since 2006. If Indiana fans want a possible playoff home game, a Utes’ victory increases those chances.

• Idle teams within range of Indiana: No. 13 SMU, No. 14 Texas A&M.

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