What Do The Week 2 Playoff Rankings Mean For Indiana?

Indiana football strengthened its position in the College Football Playoff rankings and would currently host a playoff game. What’s ahead for the Hoosiers?

Indiana's Kurtis Rourke (9) after the Indiana versus Michigan football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 9, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – So far, Indiana’s College Football Playoff ranking fate has matched the path set out for them by Associated Press Top 25 voters. And what that means is the Hoosiers could be home sweet home in the College Football Playoff.

Two days after Indiana moved up to the No. 5 spot in the AP Top 25, the Hoosiers earned the same slot in the College Football Playoff rankings.

It changed the calculus a bit for the Hoosiers. With the top four ranked conference champions getting a bye into the quarterfinals, Indiana would be the No. 7 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket. That means the Hoosiers would host a game, presently against No. 9 ranked, but No. 10-seeded, Alabama.

Of course, the goal for Indiana is to make the Big Ten championship game and get a chance to earn the bye and to be a possible No. 1 overall seed.

However, a nice consolation prize would be to host a home playoff game.

We’ll focus on that as we go through the remaining season scenarios for the Hoosiers.

If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games

• Nothing has changed from last week. Indiana would not get to play at home, but it would get a far larger reward. The Hoosiers would get that cherished bye into the quarterfinals as Big Ten champions.

Presuming that the Hoosiers would play current No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, Indiana would have wins over both Ohio State and Oregon..

An unbeaten Indiana would be the No. 1 team in the nation and the top seed in the College Football Playoff if this were to play out. Indiana would likely be assigned to play its quarterfinal game at the Rose Bowl, too. It would be the Cinderella story come to life for Indiana.

If Indiana Goes 2-0 In Regular Season, But Loses Big Ten Title Game

• Indiana would make the field, but would it still host? It would depend on what would happen elsewhere, but it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.

 The Hoosiers would have a high-quality win on the road at Ohio State on Nov. 23. Their lone loss would be to Oregon. As one-loss teams go, that’s a hard resume to top.

Indiana’s hosting possibilities would depend on how the teams around them in the CFP rankings that aren’t the best-ranked teams in their conference – No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Penn State, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 10 Alabama – finished their seasons.

Penn State and Notre Dame are the most likely to run the table in their remaining games, but would either have the resume at that point to go past Indiana with a win over Ohio State and a loss to Oregon? Maybe Notre Dame could, but probably not Penn State.

In the SEC, Texas still has to play at Texas A&M and Tennessee has to play at Georgia. Alabama has an easier road, but a road game at Oklahoma is at least somewhat of a challenge.

One factor that could possibly hurt Indiana in terms of hosting a game would be if there is an upset in the SEC championship game, depending on which combination of teams would be in that game.

There are still eight teams mathematically alive to play in that game. Right now, Tennessee and the winner of the Texas-Texas A&M game have the cleanest path, but it is by no means straightforward. Three SEC teams will be eliminated from that chase on Saturday, and the picture will go from muddy to merely cloudy.

With Texas ahead of Indiana in the current rankings, a Longhorns’ loss at Texas A&M would help the Hoosiers’ cause.

If Indiana Loses At Ohio State And Doesn’t Make Big Ten Title Game

• As it relates to hosting a game? It would likely depend on the nature of Indiana’s loss to Ohio State.

If the Hoosiers lose a close game against the Buckeyes and none of the teams closest to them in the polls do anything impressive? The Hoosiers likely won't fall far or might not fall at all.

If the Hoosiers get blown out by the Buckeyes? Indiana will take a hit in the CFP rankings that will put their playoff hopes themselves in jeopardy, much less being a playoff host.

Witness how the committee treated Georgia this week. After the Bulldogs lost 28-10 at Ole Miss, Georgia dropped from No. 3 to No. 12 and out of the field given that the fifth-best conference champ (No. 13 Boise State) gets an automatic bid.

A 10-15-point loss for the Hoosiers? Indiana would likely stay in the CFP rankings, but hosting a game would depend on what happened to the teams around them in the rankings and how the conference championship games played out elsewhere.

If Indiana Loses At Ohio State, But Still Makes Big Ten Title Game

• If Indiana loses at Ohio State, the Hoosiers would need plenty of help to make the Big Ten championship game.

As reported a week ago, a path to the Big Ten championship game can be plotted, but it’s a rocky road that requires a fair share of divine intervention.

Ohio State would have to lose an additional game among the following contests: Northwestern at Wrigley Field (that game is Saturday, so it would occur before Indiana’s trip to Columbus) or Michigan at home. It’s a favorable road for the Buckeyes.

If the Buckeyes lost an additional game, it would bring Penn State back into a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions don’t play head-to-head, and they would share the same loss against a common opponent (Ohio State), but Penn State’s stronger Big Ten schedule (the next tiebreaker) would give the Nittany Lions the edge over Hoosiers in a head-to-head tiebreaker.

So Penn State would need to lose another game too. Penn State plays at Purdue, at Minnesota, and finishes with a home game against Maryland. The Golden Gophers matchup is where Penn State would be most vulnerable, but Penn State will be favored.

Oregon could also give the Hoosiers a path by losing two games, unlikely though that may be. The Ducks play at Wisconsin and finish at home against Washington. Neither team is easy, but neither is a powerhouse either.

Still here?

If all of this somehow happened and the Hoosiers were playing in Indianapolis on Dec. 7, it would give Indiana a chance to clinch the Big Ten’s automatic berth, but it would also come with the risk of playoff elimination if the Hoosiers lost the championship game.

A two-loss Indiana team, even with those losses to Ohio State and likely Oregon, would be in trouble to make the CFP. Both losses in this scenario would have to be close ones for the Hoosiers to give the committee something to go on and to keep Indiana ranked high enough to make it as a two-loss team. It would also depend on friendly results elsewhere.

If Indiana loses to Ohio State, the less risky road, though also with less possible reward, is to just avoid the Big Ten championship game entirely and maintain one-loss status.

If Indiana Loses To Ohio State And To Purdue

• Indiana’s CFP hopes would be finished. There are too many pursuing teams that will have no fewer than two losses and none of them would have a loss as damaging as a home loss to a one-win Purdue team would be. Indiana would go bowling, most likely to the Citrus or the Reliaquest Bowl.

Luckily for the Hoosiers, this is a remote scenario.

Related stories on Indiana football

• INDIANA TO NO. 5 IN CFP RANKINGS: Indiana moved up three spots in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. CLICK HERE

• INDIANA OFFENSE, CAUSE FOR CONCERN? Indiana's offensive numbers are down in its last three games. A reverseable situation or an unwelcome trend? CLICK HERE.

• BOWL PROJECTIONS: Indiana is widely expected to reach the College Football Playoff after improving to 10-0 in its first season under coach Curt Cignetti. CLICK HERE

• OPENING LINE: Here's the point spread and over/under for Indiana's road game against Ohio State, plus betting results from throughout the season. CLICK HERE

• INDIANA MOVES TO NO. 5: Hoosiers move up three spots in latest AP football poll. CLICK HERE.

• ROAD TO 10-0 - FIU: Indiana's road to 10-0 began with the season opener against Florida International. If we knew then what we know now ... CLICK HERE.

• ROAD TO 10-0 - WIU: Indiana romped past FCS Western Illinois to keep its good vibes flowing. CLICK HERE.

• ROAD TO 10-0 - UCLA: Indiana sacked and pillaged UCLA at the Rose Bowl to move to 3-0 as fans began to take notice. CLICK HERE.