What Do The Week 3 CFP Rankings Mean For Indiana?

Indiana held on to its No. 5 position in the College Football Playoff and would currently host a playoff game, but skeptics of the Hoosiers are out there.

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. (3) runs the ball for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Washington Huskies at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – As a college football Cinderella, Indiana sure does bring out the jealous stepsisters.

Indiana’s unbeaten season has been a pleasant surprise to most fans and observers. But there are skeptics who doubt Indiana’s credentials or don’t care for the methods they’ve used to build a College Football Playoff-contending winner.

Many have pointed out Indiana’s strength of schedule, which is rated 106th in ESPN’s FPI rankings. The charge is that Indiana hasn’t played any quality teams. There’s some validity to this, but the counterpoint is that Indiana has beaten the teams on its schedule by wide margins with the exception of a 20-15 victory over Michigan.

During the College Football Playoff ranking show Tuesday, ESPN analyst Joey Galloway suggested Indiana should sit quarterback Kurtis Rourke to avoid the scenario Florida State found itself in at the end of the 2023 season, when quarterback Jordan Travis got hurt late in the season and the unbeaten Seminoles were left out of the then-four-team field.

This suggestion doesn’t make sense. If Indiana defeats Ohio State, it would take an unlikely set of circumstances to prevent the Hoosiers from playing in the Big Ten championship game. If Indiana was to win the conference title, it could be the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP.

For another, sitting players for fear of injury is a slippery slope. The committee would obviously know Indiana’s motivation and might punish the Hoosiers for trying to game the system.

Finally, Indiana’s run has generated criticism from the halls of Congress. Alabama U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a former football coach at Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, said on Monday that Indiana “bought” its team.

“Look at Indiana. They went out and bought them a football team, and look where they're at. They're playing Ohio State this week, possibly play for a national championship and maybe in the Final Four,” Tuberville said.

Tuberville did note that nothing Indiana did is illegal and that “you’ve got to buy the right ones,” but he also said, “I don’t think you should be able to recruit with money.”

Regardless of the critics and skeptics, Indiana is firmly in the College Football Playoff field for now. Here’s the scenarios for the Hoosiers going forward.

If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Pre-CFP Games

• Nothing has changed here. This is obviously the best-case scenario and carries the biggest reward.

We know now that Oregon will be in the Big Ten championship game. Assuming the No. 1 Ducks defeat Washington at home in their regular season finale on Nov. 30, Oregon will still be the top-ranked team in the country.

If Indiana defeats Oregon, an unbeaten Indiana would be the No. 1 team in the nation and the top seed in the College Football Playoff. This would be the case as the Hoosiers would have wins over No. 1 Oregon and Ohio State, which was No. 2 when the Hoosiers played them.

Indiana would likely be assigned to play its quarterfinal game at the Rose Bowl as the committee is expected to assign quarterfinal sites based on the bowl sites and their traditional ties with conferences. The Big Ten champion is widely expected to be assigned to Pasadena.

If Indiana Goes 2-0 In Regular Season, But Loses Big Ten Title Game

• Indiana would be 12-1 and would almost certainly be in the field, though there is a growing backlash regarding the Hoosiers' strength of schedule. Whether Indiana would host a game in the first round would depend on the nature of Indiana’s Big Ten championship game loss and what would happen elsewhere in the conference championship games.

The chance for a bid stealer that shoves all of the at-large teams is becoming more remote. Barring a surprise, the ACC, Big 12 and the best Group Of Five conference champion will only get one bid each. Notre Dame, should it run the table, takes another spot.

Regardless of which teams makes the SEC championship game – Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M are all mathematically alive – the two that do make it will likely be within the top 11 teams, so it’s unlikely a team that emerges from outside the top 11 in the rankings would steal a bid.

A danger for Indiana, or any other team that would lose a conference championship game in resounding fashion, is the chance that two conference champions make the field from outside the top 12. That would have been the case if Tuesday’s rankings decided the field, but there’s still a lot of games to be played before that becomes more than a hypothetical scenario.

If Indiana Loses At Ohio State And Doesn’t Make Big Ten Title Game

• This might be the odds-on scenario – certainly the oddsmakers think it’s going to go this way.

Indiana would be 11-1 in this case. The Hoosiers wouldn’t be able to hurt themselves with a title game loss, but it would be a nervous weekend of waiting out what happens elsewhere.

The Hoosiers’ fate here would likely depend on the nature of the loss to the Buckeyes. If Indiana gets beat by 21 or more, the Hoosiers might drop to the bottom of the at-large pool or out of the field entirely. If Indiana loses by a touchdown or less? The Hoosiers probably won’t be affected much.

The ambiguity comes if Indiana loses by 10-20 points. Not a bad loss, but not a close outcome. In this case, Indiana would almost certainly cede the opportunity to host a game, but could still make the field as a low at-large seed. Much would depend on how teams did around them in the rankings by season’s end.

If Indiana Loses At Ohio State, But Still Makes Big Ten Title Game

• The only way this can happen would be if Ohio State lost at home to Michigan in the regular season finale and Penn State lost to either Minnesota or Maryland. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but it’s not the likely scenario.

If it did come to pass, it would likely trigger a feast or famine scenario for the Hoosiers. A win over Oregon would give Indiana a bye into the quarterfinals. Even with a loss, a win over Oregon still might lift Indiana to a No. 1 overall seed as there wouldn’t be another undefeated team from a major conference.

A loss to the Ducks, however, would put Indiana in a precarious position. A two-loss Indiana team – with losses against the two best teams the Hoosiers played – would send a very bad message to the CFP committee. I wouldn’t want to test whether the committee would be prepared to put a two-loss Indiana team in the field with the 106th-best schedule in the country.

If Indiana Loses To Ohio State And To Purdue

• Make plans for the Citrus or the Reliaquest Bowl in Florida. Indiana would have no shot at a CFP bid with no quality win on the resume and a damaging loss to the Boilermakers. Luckily for the Hoosiers, this is the least likely scenario.

Related stories on Indiana football

• INDIANA MAINTAINS NO. 5 SPOT IN CFP RANKINGS: Indiana's College Football Playoff ranking was unchanged when the new rankings were released on Tuesday. CLICK HERE.

• CIGNETTI EXPLAINS DECISION TO SIGN NEW CONTRACT: Curt Cignetti knew other schools would be interested in hiring him after a 10-0 start at Indiana, but he decided to sign a new contract to stay in Bloomington through the 2032 season. CLICK HERE

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti spoke to the media on Monday ahead of Saturday's game at Ohio State. CLICK HERE