The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 20-15 Win Over Michigan

How did Hoosiers On SI do in its pregame three keys and score prediction for the Michigan game?

Indiana's Ke'Shawn Williams (5) celebrates a first down during the Indiana versus Michigan football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 9, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – I don’t know about you, but I’m glad Indiana had a close game on Saturday. For the first time this season, the outcome was still in doubt in the late going as No. 8 Indiana held off Michigan in a tense 20-15 victory at Memorial Stadium.

Indiana has done a fantastic job of pulling away against nearly all of its foes to take the game out of reach by the fourth quarter. That’s impressive, and it shows how well Indiana has executed its game plan throughout the 2024 season.

To get the measure of a team, though, you want to see how they do when the outcome is in the balance. When nerves are tense, when the pressure is on.

It was an interesting response from the Hoosiers. The defensive clampdown was expected. Indiana’s defense has been brilliant throughout the season, but it has been especially good in the last two games. The Hoosiers never let the Wolverines feel comfortable once the game dictated that they needed to pass.

Indiana’s special teams got the job done. Nicolas Radicic made an important 41-yard field goal with 2:34 left. That scoring possession was set up by a spectacular 22-yard punt return by Ke’Shawn Williams to flip the field in Indiana’s favor.

The surprise was the lack of response from Indiana’s offense. In the first half, all seemed normal. Indiana had 228 total yards of total offense and averaged 6.3 yards per play. Kurtis Rourke was dropping in beautiful long balls on deep routes. You began to wonder if any team could stop the Hoosiers.

The Wolverines sharpened their resistance in the second half in a big way. Indiana’s run game wasn’t good in the first half (37 yards) and it dropped to minus-2 in the second half due to three second half Michigan sacks. Rourke completed 3 of 10 passes in the second half with an interception thrown inside the Indiana 10-yard line.

Two areas where Indiana handled the pressure well. One where it didn’t. The offense will certainly have to be better against a good Ohio State defense on Nov. 23. The defense and special teams need to stay right where they are.

Here is how this week’s three keys and the prediction for the Michigan game played out.

1. Hold Colston Loveland To Three Catches Or Less

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Jailin Walker (2) deflects the pass so Michigan Wolverines tight end Colston Loveland (18) can’t catch the ball in the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Indiana almost made the three-catch threshold. Loveland had four catches for 37 yards, but he didn’t have a huge impact on the game. Two of his catches were on the first two plays Michigan ran.

Loveland was targeted 10 times, and it was a group effort to keep the ball out of his hands. Shawn Asbury II, Terry Jones, Jailin Walker and James Carpenter all had pass breakups. Carpenter was credited with a quarterback pressure on another incomplete pass intended for the Michigan tight end.

Three-catch threshold or not, Indiana did the job on one of the best tight ends in the country.

2. Improve Red Zone Defense

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Mikail Kamara (6) celebrates his tackle in the first quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Statistically, Michigan’s 3-for-3 rate in the red zone will be a loss for Indiana. But this is where statistics don’t properly tell the story. They may even lie.

Indiana’s defense twice held Michigan to field goals inside the 20. The big one was a stand after Michigan intercepted Rourke inside the Indiana 10-yard line. The other came on a Michigan fumble for an 18-yard loss at the Indiana 3-yard line. Michigan’s only touchdown came in the fourth quarter, but they had to fight hard to get it as Kalel Mullings dove over the top with a 1-yard touchdown run on 4th-and-goal.

Indiana won’t improve its red zone defense percentage, but the Hoosiers were still pretty tough in the shadow of their own goalpost.

3. Get Miles Cross Going

A rare total whiff in the three keys department. Cross started, and he was targeted three times. But had no catches. According to Pro Football Focus, Cross participated in 22 snaps.

Aside from Ke’Shawn Williams (6 catches, 70 yards) and perhaps Omar Cooper Jr. (3 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD), it wasn’t a great day for Indiana’s receivers. In that sense, the fallow day from Cross fit right in.

Prediction

The prediction was 31-13, which was looking good at halftime, but Michigan had other ideas. Not a chance there’s any credible path to try to claim a 20-15 score is anything close to what was predicted. We’ll fly the prediction’s L flag and put our tail between our legs for the bye week.

Related stories on Indiana football

• INDIANA ESCAPES WITH 20-15 WIN: Indiana holds off Michigan to earn a 20-15 win to improve to 10-0. CLICK HERE.

• FEAR NOT, THE DEFENSE HAS THIS: Todd Golden writes about how it got a bit scary at Memorial Stadium on Saturday ... until the Indiana defense got on the field. CLICK HERE.

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: Here's everything Cignetti said to the media after the Michigan win. CLICK HERE

• ROLES REVERSED FOR MICHIGAN: Indiana rarely loses to Michigan, but the roles are reversed as Indiana improved to 10-0 at the expense of the Wolverines. CLICK HERE.

• LIVE BLOG: Follow along as Hoosiers On SI writes about the events of the game as they happened. Re-live Indiana's thrilling 20-15 victory over Michigan. CLICK HERE.

• DREW EVANS OUT FOR SEASON: Indiana has lost guard Drew Evans for the season according to the availability report for the Indiana-Michigan game on Saturday. CLICK HERE.

• IT'S STILL A BIG DEAL TO BEAT ONE OF THE BIG TWO: Todd Golden opines that beating Michigan, regardless of the state of the programs, is still a big deal. CLICK HERE.