The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 41-24 Win Over Northwestern

How did we do on our Indiana prognostications for the Northwestern game?

Todd Golden | Oct 6, 2024

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Mikail Kamara (6) gestures after sacking the Northwestern Wildcats quarterback during the first half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Among many, many other things, it must be fun to do Indiana’s game notes for the media in the wake of Indiana’s 6-0 start.

That’s the job of Indiana’s sports information staff. Greg Campbell and Jeff Keag handle football duties, and they’re awash in positive historical facts to pass along to the public.

The phrase “first time since” is being worn out as the Hoosiers set a historic standard of success on a weekly basis. Here’s a few to chew on:

• Indiana scored 40 points in five consecutive games for the first time in school history.

• The sixth-straight double-digit win is the longest such streak since the 1905-06 seasons.

• The last time Indiana had three consecutive games with 500 yards of total offense was 2015.

• Indiana has nine scoring drives of 10 plays or more. That matches the entire total from the 2023 season.

• Justice Ellison has scored a rushing touchdown in five straight games, the first time since Stevie Scott III did it in 2018.

• Kurtis Rourke became the first Hoosier with a trio of three-touchdown pass games in Big Ten play since 1967.

• Curt Cignetti’s six wins in his first season is tied with Madison G. Gonteman for third on the all-time Indiana list. Gonteman coached in 1896. Cignetti can catch Bill Lynch (7 in 2007) and James M. Sheldon (8, 1905) for the all-time mark.

Indiana has the first of its two bye weeks on-tap, so the fun statistical distinctions will have to wait another week. But what a ride it’s been through the first half of the season.

Here’s how we did on the three keys and prediction for the Northwestern game:

1. Kurtis Rourke can’t force the issue

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) drops back to pass against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

This came to pass. He did force a pass on Indiana’s first drive – there was one tipped ball thrown into traffic intended for Elijah Sarratt on the first series.

We’re quibbling, though, because Rourke completed 12 of his first 13 passes and only had eight incomplete passes overall. There were only two instances in the game in which he had two straight incompletions, and he was not intercepted.

Rourke was 4-for-6 on passes of 15 yards or more, which is very impressive.

He was not sacked, and Northwestern was only credited with one quarterback hurry. So a lot of credit also goes to the offensive line for giving Rourke the best chance to be Rourke.

2. Continue to control third down

Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Jack Lausch (12) passes the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

Entering the game, Indiana was first in the Big Ten in third down conversions (57.4%) and Northwestern (27.5%) was last. Predicting control of third down was like shooting fish in a barrel, right?

Not so fast, said the football gods. For the first time this season, Indiana did not have an optimal day on third down.

The Hoosiers converted just 3 of 9 on third down. Indiana somewhat made up for it by converting 2 of 3 on fourth down, but the sticks did not move with usual regularity.

Notably, Northwestern held Indiana to 1 of 3 on conversions of four yards or less, a testament to how stingy the Wildcats occasionally were against Indiana’s run game. The Hoosiers averaged 2 yards on 6 third down rushing attempts.

The Wildcats were 5 of 13 on third down. Not a bad job by the Indiana defense by any stretch, but their 38.5% conversion rate was significantly better than their season rate.

Of concern to Indiana is that Northwestern averaged 8.3 yards on their third down rushing attempts – credit there goes to Northwestern quarterback Jack Lausch, who had rushing gains of 14 and 7 on two third down conversions.

3. Keep up the good injury luck

Indiana still remains pretty healthy for a football team six games into a season, though injuries are piling up among reserve defensive linemen.

However, the first injury involving a starter occurred on Saturday when linebacker Jailin Walker went down in the first half. There were no details provided on the nature of Walker’s injury after the game.

Cignetti seemed unfazed about it after the game.

“We’ll see how Jailin is on Monday. He's had some injuries in the past that the medical staff didn’t think he’d play again and he’s back there like two weeks later. So we’ll see,” Cignetti said.

Walker had three tackles before he was injured on Saturday and is Indiana’s second-leading tackler overall. He is one of the leaders on the defensive side, so his potential loss is the first real serious injury confronted by Indiana this season.

In that sense, the bye week is a blessing for Walker to recover, and we’ll see how it plays out.

Apart from Walker, there were no other obvious injuries suffered on Saturday, so Indiana continues to have decent good fortune in this department.

Prediction

Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Theran Johnson (10) tackles Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) during the first half at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. / David Banks-Imagn Images

We wrote “it was hard to envision a worst-case scenario that involves losing.” That more or less played out, but if we’re being honest this was a much-closer game than we anticipated.

Northwestern moved the ball with quite a bit more ease than expected as Lausch did a good job with his feet and his arm. The concern raised from this game is that if a Northwestern offense that had been struggling can move the ball as it did, what will better-quality offenses be able to do?

Indiana’s offense made up for the defensive shortcomings, though. Two fourth-quarter drives ultimately accounted for a 17-point win. We predicted 31-12, which proved to be too optimistic for the first time this season. But until an opponent can prove otherwise, we will continue to predict high scores for the Indiana offense because it continues to provide them.

1. Kurtis Rourke can’t force the issue

2. Continue to control third down

3. Keep up the good injury luck

Prediction

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