Todd’s Take: Top Three Reasons To Feel Optimistic About Indiana Football

Seven wins? Really? It's not going out on a limb to be an attainable goal for the Hoosiers.

Indiana defensive end Mikail Kamara takes part in fall practice on Aug. 5, 2024. / Indiana University athletics

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – It’s the second weekend in August, so maybe you’re not ready for college football just yet. The Olympics are just winding down. Perhaps your kids just finished playing summer ball. Your favorite baseball team might still be in the throes of a playoff chase (mine is!), and football is an autumn proposition.

Here in Indiana, football comes to us when it comes. This isn’t Ohio, Michigan or the South, where football is a 365-day passion. Basketball? Bring it on no matter what the calendar is flipped to, but football? We tend not to rush it.

That’s born out of years of practice, knowing that when it does come time to focus on the college gridiron that disappointment is not far around the corner. Indiana’s all-time winning percentage is .418 after all. Indiana fans are past masters of wait-and-see.

This off-season has had a different vibe to it. Indiana fans seem ready to embrace the Curt Cignetti regime. The drastic change in tone from the wonkish Tom Allen to the brash ways of Cignetti have been accepted, if for nothing else, because it’s just a new voice speaking different things.

Shameless plug alert. If you read the first-year coaches series that is on-going on Hoosiers On SI throughout August, you’ll note that going from one coaching personality to a different one is nothing new in Indiana’s history. Cignetti is just the latest model.

Now that we’re at the business end of the season – preseason practices enter their third week on Monday – even Cignetti understands that talk is cheap. Florida International begins a new adventure at Memorial Stadium on Aug. 31.

Indiana was picked 17th in the preseason Big Ten media poll – a reflection of the Hoosiers’ history and unknown-to-outsiders expected contributors.

Were I an outsider, I’d probably have the Hoosiers down there too, but I think Indiana can be better than that. Not Big Ten-contention better, but discernible progress kind of better. Bowl eligible better? Yeah, I think that’s a realistic goal.

Here’s my top three reasons why I think fans have reason to be optimistic in 2024:

1. Running back depth

Indiana running back Elijah Green tries to get past cornerback D'Angelo Ponds during a practice on Aug. 5, 2024. / Indiana athletics

By the end of the 2023 season, Indiana had turned to Trent Howland to anchor its running game. Nothing against Howland, who took advantage of his opportunity to average 4.7 yards per carry, but he was never part of the primary plan for Indiana going into last season.

It became clear early on that the Hoosiers were sorely lacking depth in the backfield. The result was a rushing attack that only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Only 11 FBS schools were worse.

Depth shouldn’t be an issue for the Hoosiers this time around. Cignetti and his staff replenished this unit in a big way. From James Madison, Kaelon Black and Ty Son Lawton followed Cignetti to Bloomington. Two Atlantic Coast Conference veterans – Justice Ellison from Wake Forest and Elijah Green from North Carolina – are also on-board.

All of them have rushed for 500 yards or more in a season during their careers. Black (637 rushing yards) and Lawton (568) both did it last year for JMU, sharing carries almost evenly for the Dukes.

Ellison rushed for 548 yards in 2023 for the Demon Deacons, but reached 699 in 2022. Green rushed for 558 yards in 2022 for the Tar Heels, but slipped down the pecking order in 2023.

Although there isn’t a huge variance in size between the quartet – Lawton is the smallest at 5-foot-9, Green the tallest at 6-foot – they will be able to theoretically keep each other fresh without much fall-off in performance.

Black was the most accomplished receiver of the four – 27 catches for 254 yard in 2023 – but all of them have also had double-digit reception seasons, too. This should be an area of strength in 2024.

2. Kurtis Rourke and quarterback stability

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke tosses a pass during a practice on Aug. 6, 2024. / Indiana athletics

There is a quarterback “competition” during fall camp –Cignetti hasn’t named a starter – but if it is anyone but Kurtis Rourke, it will be a surprise.

From what the media has been allowed to observe of camp to-date? There has been nothing that stands out as a red flag regarding Rourke. He’s steady, he’s accurate, he gets down to business.

He is playing his sixth season of college football. Rourke produced at a prodigious clip for Ohio University. He threw for 3,257 yards in 2022 for the Bobcats, including an impressive 25 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Ohio U. didn’t throw as much in 2023, but Rourke was solid with 2,207 passing yards and 11 TD passes.

Rourke knows how to play, and with Ohio U. having had consecutive 10-win seasons, he can win, too.

However, the bigger deal for Indiana is stability in this spot. Allen’s final season began with a quarterback battle that wasn’t really resolved until October. Brendan Sorsby did well once established, but by then it was too late. The ambiguity at that position played a big role in Indiana not giving itself a chance to succeed straight out of the gate.

Players crave stability and an unambiguous order of things, especially when it comes to team leadership.

The uber-experienced Rourke should provide what the Hoosiers need. Not just in leadership, but in passing ability to produce scoring, which will likely be needed given that the Indiana defensive personnel aren’t anywhere near as accomplished as some of their offensive brethren.

3. The schedule is favorable

A scene from Indiana's 2023 home opener against Ohio State. In 2024, Indiana will play eight of its 12 games at home, including five BIg Ten contests. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Mr. Golden, have you taken leave of your senses? Any schedule that features both Ohio State and Michigan is hardly “favorable.”

Yes, it’s true that Indiana is one of just three Big Ten schools (Northwestern and Oregon are the others) to play both Ohio State (in Columbus) and Michigan (in Bloomington). However, that’s perhaps the only unfavorable aspect of Indiana’s slate.

For starters, the Hoosiers play eight home games as they are in a five-home game Big Ten rotation, and all of their nonconference contests are at Memorial Stadium.

In the Big Ten, Indiana only plays two teams ranked in the top five of the preseason media poll. Conversely, the Hoosiers will take on four of the teams (Northwestern, UCLA, Michigan State, Purdue) in the bottom five. The only team not included is Indiana itself.

The travel is very kind. Apart from a September trip to UCLA, Indiana’s other trips are to states that border the Hoosier state.

The nonconference slate? Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte are hardly murderer’s row. If you can’t get half of your bowl eligibility against this trio, you aren’t worthy in the first place.

When I submitted my Big Ten media ballot, I picked all of the games, because with such disparities in schedules, it’s the only way to truly ascertain what’s what. I had Indiana at 4-5 in the Big Ten, almost entirely due to the schedule.

I think Indiana will catch a re-building UCLA at the right time (the Hoosiers will play their third game, the Bruins will play their second) for a surprise out west.

Indiana is capable of taking care of Maryland, Washington (the national runner-up Huskies are almost a completely different team from 2023) and Purdue at home.

While I didn’t put these games in the win column in my predictions, victories at Northwestern and Michigan State aren’t beyond Indiana’s reach, either. Nor is a home contest against Nebraska. One could make a very sensible argument that the UCLA contest I have as an Indiana win could be replaced by a victory over the Cornhuskers, Wildcats or Spartans.

Assuming Indiana takes care of its non-conference flotsam, that puts Indiana at 7-5 for the season and in a bowl game. Can I believe I just wrote that? It's an optimistic outcome, but one I think is attainable.

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• ELLISON HAD BASKETBALL CONNECTION TO BRING HIM TO INDIANA: When it came time to decide to transfer from Wake Forest, running back Justice Ellison phoned a basketball friend in Bloomington. CLICK HERE.

• WILLIAMS ON THE MEND: Wide receiver E.J. Williams is trying to get on the field for the Hoosiers. CLICK HERE.