What Do The First College Football Playoff Rankings Mean For Indiana?

As of today, Indiana football is in the College Football Playoff field. Here are the scenarios for the Hoosiers going forward.

Indiana's Cedarius Doss (13) and JoJo Johnson (3) celebrate being 5-0 after the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season put Indiana in an interesting position as it tries to plot a course for the College Football Playoff.

Indiana has a No. 8 ranking in the 12-team field, but in effect the Hoosiers are No. 9 because of how the field is seeded. BYU, the No. 9 ranked team, is the best Big 12 team, so the Cougars would vault in front of the Hoosiers and four other schools to get a bye as one of the conference champions.

The first CFP bracket projection with the 12-team playoff era has dropped 🏈 pic.twitter.com/HXK3syhbEE

— ESPN (@espn) November 6, 2024

There are myriad plot twists and turns you could come up with to try to figure out Indiana’s fate. What if there were upsets in all three of the other conference championship games that will likely set the byes? The dreaded “bid stealer” scenario? What happens if X-contender loses these two games but Y-contender wins out?

You can go crazy trying to map out various paths that take the Hoosiers into or out of the College Football Playoff based on what happens elsewhere.

So let’s just stick with the ones that directly involve the Hoosiers. That’s plenty to think about all by itself.

If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games

• The scenario here is simple: Indiana would make the College Football Playoff and get a bye, and it would be one of the top four seeds as the Big Ten champion.

This scenario would assume a 3-0 end to the regular season and a win over Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. In beating Oregon, Indiana might be the top seed in the College Football Playoff as an unbeaten team that beat the No. 1 team in the Big Ten championship game.

If Indiana Goes 3-0 In Regular Season, But Loses Big Ten Title Game

• It would be difficult to keep a 12-1 Indiana team out of the field. In this scenario, the Hoosiers would have a high-quality win on the road at Ohio State on Nov. 23 that would blunt concerns about Indiana’s strength of schedule.

Most likely, depending on whether there were “bid stealers” in some of the other conference championship games, Indiana would be in the field, probably still as a host for a first-round game, seeded between fifth and eighth, because the loss to Oregon would not be considered a damaging one. However, the Hoosiers would cede a bit of control over their fate.

If Indiana Loses At Ohio State And Doesn’t Make Big Ten Title Game

• This is a possibility, but not one that would necessarily be fatal for the Hoosiers’ CFP hopes unless they were defeated so decisively by the Buckeyes that their ranking takes a big hit.

If Indiana were to lose to the Buckeyes, and there are no surprises elsewhere in league play, they would drop into a three-way tie with Ohio State and Penn State for second place.

In that case, Ohio State would face Oregon in the Big ten title game, because the Buckeyes will have beaten both the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions.

It’s not an awful scenario for the Hoosiers – with one major proviso. In this case, Indiana would have one loss and wouldn’t have the jeopardy of losing again in the Big Ten championship game. The Hoosiers would be vulnerable to ranking movement elsewhere, but they could do no further damage to themselves. The Hoosiers could move up if the contenders in front of them lose.

However, Indiana would need to have its ranking high enough after the loss to Ohio State to put the above scenario into motion. If the Hoosiers are ranked in the No. 11-12 range, they would be vulnerable to being passed up.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) prepares to snap the ball during the first quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

If Indiana Loses At Ohio State, But Still Makes Big Ten Title Game

• If Indiana loses at Ohio State, the Hoosiers would need plenty of help to make the Big Ten championship game.

A path back to the Big Ten championship game can be laid out, but it’s a circuitous route filled with unlikely circumstances.

Ohio State would have to lose one of the following games: Purdue at home, at Northwestern or Michigan at home. The Big Game is always rife with upset possibilities, but it’s a favorable road for the Buckeyes.

In this scenario, Penn State would be in a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions don’t play head-to-head and they would share the same loss against a common opponent (Ohio State), but Penn State’s stronger Big Ten schedule (the next tiebreaker) would give the Nittany Lions the edge over Hoosiers in a head-to-head tiebreaker.

So Indiana would need Penn State to lose another game too. Penn State hosts Washington, plays at Purdue, at Minnesota, and finishes with a home game against Maryland. The Golden Gophers matchup is where Penn State would be most vulnerable – Minnesota has won four in a row – but Penn State would still be favored.

Oregon could also give the Hoosiers a path by losing two games, unlikely though that may be. The Ducks host Maryland, play at Wisconsin and finish at home against Washington.

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If all of this somehow happened and the Hoosiers were playing in Indianapolis on Dec. 7, it would give Indiana a chance to clinch the Big Ten’s automatic berth. But it would also come with the risk of a second loss and perhaps playoff elimination, if the Hoosiers lost the championship game.

A two-loss Indiana team, even with those losses to Ohio State and likely Oregon, would be dangling by a string as a CFP playoff qualifier. Both losses, in this scenario, would have to be close ones for the Hoosiers to give the committee something to go on and to keep Indiana ranked high enough to make it as a two-loss team.

If the committee goes the other direction and punishes the Hoosiers, the rest of Indiana’s resume wouldn’t likely be strong enough to keep the Hoosiers in the top 12 in the rankings unless there was chaos elsewhere among the CFP contenders. Indiana would need the right kind of chaos to make the cut.

If Indiana Loses To Michigan, But Beats Ohio State

• Michigan comes to Bloomington on Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff. Indiana is three games ahead of the Wolverines in the Big Ten standings. A loss to the Wolverines would likely knock Indiana down to the bottom of the playoff qualifying pack or out of the CFP Top 12 for a week, but a road win at Ohio State might lift the Hoosiers back in a week later. Timing is everything.

It would also set in motion all of the above scenarios in making the Big Ten championship game, but somewhat bizarrely, Indiana would be far better-placed to make it to Indy. Why? In this scenario, Indiana would have the tiebreaker edge over the Buckeyes (head-to-head win) and the Nittany Lions (head-to-head win against a common opponent).

So losing to a worse Michigan team could be better than losing to a much-better Ohio State team for the Hoosiers as far as making the Big Ten championship game is concerned. It’s a weird new world.

If that happened, it could be a poisoned chalice for the Hoosiers if they lost in the championship game. A Michigan loss could make Indiana vulnerable when compared to the losses of other CFP contenders. At best, it would likely end any chance of Indiana hosting a playoff game. At worst, it could eliminate the Hoosiers from CFP contention entirely.

Indiana's Aiden Fisher (4) and CJ West (8) celebrate West's sack of Maryland's Billy Edwards Jr. (9) during the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If Indiana Loses To Ohio State And To Either Michigan Or Purdue

• Indiana’s CFP hopes would almost certainly be finished. Alabama is in the current field with two losses, but both of the Crimson Tide’s losses were to other playoff teams. This would not be the case for the Hoosiers.

Though the hue and cry would be deafening, a three-loss Alabama team with all three losses against playoff qualifiers would likely be given more weight than Indiana’s two-loss resume would be with a home loss to a non-playoff contender. This is where Indiana’s Power Four-worst 103rd-ranked strength of schedule would come back to haunt them.

Certainly, a loss at the hands of struggling Purdue in the regular season finale at Memorial Stadium would be a mortal blow to Indiana’s CFP hopes. Indiana would then go bowling instead.

The bottom line? A win over Ohio State would almost certainly put Indiana on the path to CFP playoff berth, because it would be one of the best wins any playoff contender would have.

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• BOWL PROJECTIONS: The College Football Playoff is becoming a real possibility for Indiana after a 9-0 start. Here are bowl projections from various national analysts. CLICK HERE

• WHAT CIGNETTI SAID: Curt Cignetti spoke to the media on Monday ahead of No. 8 Indiana's game against Michigan Saturday. CLICK HERE.

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