College Football Playoff Rankings Reaction: Despite being on outside, Iowa State still has a shot

Cyclones might be sitting at No. 17, but win-out, and they will be in

Iowa State Cyclones football team enters the field before the game against Texas Tech in the week-10 NCAA football at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Things might look a little bleak for the Iowa State football team at the moment following the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings.

And in past years, it probably would be pretty, pretty dark. 

But with the new 12-team format going into play this fall, the Cyclones still honestly hold control of their own destiny for making it into the field. 

Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia and Miami occupy the Top-4 spots in the rankings, but current Big 12 leader BYU has the final quarterfinal spot and bye thanks to leading the conference. Those four spots go to the winners of the Power 4, as Oregon and Ohio State are both in the Big Ten now thanks to the collapse of the Pac-12.

What that means for Iowa State is the Cougars are a stick they need to continue to push to be the ones to knock off. If both win-out, they will meet in for the championship assuming Colorado slips up between now and that time. 

Quick side-note, the Cyclones and Buffaloes do not meet this year. That means the tiebreaker for those two schools comes down to winning percentage against common opponents. Colorado can take a giant step forward in claiming that with a victory over Texas Tech this weekend, as the Red Raiders just knocked off Iowa State. 

But let’s play advocate for Matt Campbell and his Cyclones, and for our purposes, go with a loss by Deion Sanders and Colorado between now and the end of the year. 

The Cyclones are heavily favored over their four remaining opponents starting with Kansas this weekend. They play Cincinnati and Utah before closing the year vs. Kansas State. That last one could be critical if the Wildcats can go on a streak themselves after losing this past weekend.

If Kansas State continues to climb the rankings, they will provide a strong resume builder for Iowa State to push towards even making a claim to an at-large if they get left out by BYU and Colorado for the title game. 

Would the rankings prefer a team coming off a loss in the conference championship in Colorado to a team having won four in a row and holding just one loss in Iowa State? You would have to think that would be a much easier selling point for those to make. 

Alabama and LSU, two teams ahead of the Cyclones, meet this week in a key SEC matchup. Georgia could derail Ole Miss if they top them this Saturday and the Bulldogs face Tennessee next week. Vanderbilt, who already owns wins over Alabama and Georgia, faces LSU later this month and still has a date with Oklahoma on the calendar while Texas and Texas A&M play in the final week along with Alabama’s arch-rival, Auburn. 

Army, one of the last unbeatens still standing, could poise a problem for Notre Dame, as the Irish will make the long trip to USC on Nov. 30 for what could be a situation that sees Trojan head coach Lincoln Riley need to win in order to keep his job. 

SMU, sitting a few spots ahead of the Cyclones, would likely need to topple Miami in the ACC title game to get a spot in the final 12. As for the Big Ten, Indiana gets defending national champion Michigan this week and heads to Ohio State in two weeks.