ESPN FPI For Big 12 Games: Iowa State a slim favorite over Kansas State to claim spot in title game

Iowa State given a 54% chance to defeat Kansas State, advance to Big 12 title game

Jaylin Noel and Iowa State take on Kansas State Saturday night from Ames. / Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

The biggest week of the college football season is upon us as teams jockey for spots in conference title games and potential bids to the College Football Playoffs. 

One of those takes place in Ames, Iowa from Jack Trice Stadium when Iowa State (9-2, 7-2) battles Kansas State (8-3, 5-3). A win over the Wildcats for the Cyclones Saturday night will secure them a chance to play for the league title.

Meanwhile, Arizona State (9-2, 6-2) has the same situation sitting in front of them, as a win over Arizona (4-7, 2-6) advances them to Dallas in December for the championship.

BYU (9-2, 6-2) and Colorado (8-3, 6-2) are sniffing on the heels of both ISU and ASU, hoping for one of them to slip and allow them a chance to slide right in. The Cougars face Houston (4-7, 3-5) while the Buffaloes meet Oklahoma State (3-8, 0-8) Friday. 

Here are the latest ESPN FPI predictions for all the Big 12 games during Week 14

• Kansas State at Iowa State: Iowa State 54.4 percent chance to win
• Arizona State at Arizona: Arizona State 71.8 percent chance to win 
• Houston at BYU: BYU 87.2 percent chance to win
• Oklahoma State at Colorado: Colorado 81.5 percent chance to win
• Utah at UCF: UFC 68.5 percent chance to win
• Kansas at Baylor: Kansas 51.8 percent chance to win
• West Virginia at Texas Tech: Texas Tech 58.1 percent chance to win
• TCU at Cincinnati: TCU 52.6 percent chance to win

Other than Big 12 title game, plenty to play for among other teams

While Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia all have reached bowl eligibility, Kansas and Cincinnati both need victories to hit the six-win mark.

The Jayhawks are a slight favorite over Baylor, as they have reeled off consecutive wins over Iowa State, BYU and Colorado. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a slight underdog to TCU. 

Latest bowl projections for Big 12 teams

Jerry Palm’s latest bowl projections have Arizona State in the College Football Playoff. The Sun Devils are slated to meet Oregon in the opening round, as Palm has Ohio State besting Oregon for the Big Ten title. 

Other bowl games with Big 12 teams have TCU facing LSU in the Texas Bowl, BYU meeting Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, Iowa State taking on Clemson in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Baylor facing Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl, Texas Tech battling Nebraska in the Rate Bowl, West Virginia playing Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl and Kansas meeting former Big 12 rival Oklahoma in the Frisco Bowl.

The pairing of Colorado and BYU comes about because of the use of past Pac-12 tie-ins following the conference being dissolved. 

ESPN’s latest bowl projections also have Arizona State in the CFP, this time facing Ohio State in one and Penn State in the other. 

The Rate Bowl has TCU in one and Kansas State in the other, with Rutgers the opponent for both. West Virginia vs. Navy and Baylor vs. Army are two projections for the Armed Forces Bowl, with Baylor vs. Arkansas and TCU vs. Florida in the Liberty Bowl two more.

Colorado taking on Clemson in the Holiday Bowl is an option, while both have Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl again, with one matchup against Clemson and another vs. Duke.

BYU vs. Washington State or Colorado are projections for the Alamo Bowl with Kansas vs. Louisiana and West Virginia vs. Oklahoma for the Independence Bowl. Kansas State taking on Texas A&M and Texas Tech meeting LSU are possibilities for the Texas Bowl, with Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt and Kansas vs. Memphis the same in the First Responder Bowl.