ESPN FPI gives thoughts on Big 12 title game, College Football Playoff field

Iowa State makes CFP with a win over Arizona State on Saturday

Jayden Higgins and Iowa State play for a spot in the College Football Playoff Saturday vs. Arizona State. / Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Win and the Iowa State football team will have a chance to compete for the national championship.

The Cyclones (10-2) square off with Arizona State (10-2) on Saturday from Dallas and AT&T Stadium for the Big 12 title. The winner will earn a spot in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff field.

While odds are in favor of the Sun Devils, who are listed at 2.5-point favorites, ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) leans towards Iowa State, giving them a 55 percent chance to win.

What happens if Iowa State defeats Arizona State?

If the Cyclones prevail over Arizona State on Saturday, they will earn an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. While the odds are not looking good for a first-round bye and spot in the quarterfinals, they will have one of 12 chances to win it all.

Boise State is currently handling UNLV in the Mountain West Conference title game, meaning the Broncos will likely earn one of the four byes. Assuming they hang on, that leaves just a spot or two open heading into Saturday.

Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Penn State, Georgia and Indiana are almost guarantees to make the field barring something crazy happening. They all have 99 or 100 percent chances to qualify, according to the FPI.

Alabama is the first-one out in terms of the percentages, but things could change based on the outcomes of the ACC title game between SMU and Clemson. The Mustangs are currently in and could be playing for a bye with a win or even being knocked out completely with a loss. 

Clemson’s only real chance is to knock SMU off to qualify after losing to South Carolina last week.

ESPN FPI Predictions, College Football Playoff Field

Here are the 12 teams the FPI currently has in the 12-team field:

1. Oregon

2. Texas

3. Notre Dame

4. Ohio State

5. Tennessee

6. Indiana

7. Georgia

8. Penn State

9. Alabama

10. Boise State

11. SMU

12. Iowa State

Oregon, Texas, Boise State and SMU would earn byes if this holds true. First-round games would include Notre Dame vs. Iowa State, Ohio State vs. Alabama, Tennessee vs. Penn State and Indiana vs. Georgia.

Would Clemson move up enough to take one of the byes if they win? Would the committee decide to keep SMU in the field with a close loss to the Tigers? 

We will find it all out Saturday and know for sure once the selection show airs to determine the 12-team CFP field.

More Iowa State & Big 12 Analysis

* Latest betting odds, trends for Big 12 title game between Iowa State, Arizona State

* Arizona State with nothing but respect for Matt Campbell

* Keys to victory for Iowa State vs. Arizona State

* Bowl projections for the Big 12 Conference

* Iowa State climbs the latest Coaches Poll Top 25

* Rocco Becht credits 2023 loss with driving Iowa State

* How to watch Iowa State vs. Arizona State for Big 12 title