In topsy-turvy Big 12, Iowa State football still has a realistic chance to play for title

Spot in the College Football Playoff guaranteed to winner of Big 12 Conference

The Iowa State football team has stormed back into contention in the Big 12 after a win over Cincinnati. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State football team was safely in the College Football Playoff just a few shorts weeks ago. But following two straight losses, the Cyclones found themselves not only on the outside looking in for the CFP, but for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

Well, just as quickly as things spiraled in the wrong direction, they have seemingly taken a turn for the better - at least for Cyclone faithful.

Iowa State (8-2, 5-2) got back on track with a commanding win over Cincinnati. Just a few short hours later, BYU fell for the first time this season at home to Kansas, who picked up a win over the Cyclones the week prior.

The Jayhawks could quickly turn from villain to hero for Iowa State, as they get Colorado this Saturday and Heisman Trophy favorite Travis Hunter. If the Cyclones beat Utah on the road and Kansas pulls a third consecutive upset, Iowa State would be right back in a tie for second with a week remaining.

There is also Arizona State, who has a showdown with BYU on the horizon. The Sun Devils have won three straight since a loss to Cincinnati last month.

Updated Big 12 Standings

BYU’s stranglehold on the top of the conference was weakened with the home loss to Kansas, sending them into a tie with Colorado for first at 6-1. Arizona State and Iowa State are one game behind with a pack of five all sitting at three losses with two weeks left.

Here’s a look at the updated Big 12 standings after Week 12 of the college football season:

1. (tie) BYU (6-1)

1. (tie) Colorado (6-1)

3. (tie) Arizona State (5-2)

3. (tie) Iowa State (5-2)

5. (tie) Baylor (4-3)

5. (tie) Kansas State (4-3)

5. (tie) TCU (4-3)

5. (tie) Texas Tech (4-3)

5. (tie) West Virginia (4-3)

10. (tie) Cincinnati (3-4)

10. (tie) Kansas (3-4)

10. (tie) Houston (3-4)

13. (tie) UCF (2-5)

13. (tie) Arizona (2-5)

15. Utah (1-6)

16. Oklahoma State (0-7)

The loss by the Cougars really makes things interesting down the stretch. Tiebreakers are likely to come into play in determining the final pecking order. 

Iowa State’s Path to the Big 12 Title

Matt Campbell and the Cyclones do not control their own destiny at the moment. Those roles are reserved for BYU and Colorado.

If the Cougars and Buffaloes win out, they will meet in Dallas for the title this December. But if they don’t - and the way the past few weeks have played out, it isn’t looking likely - that makes it possible for Iowa State to sneak back in.

First is the obvious, meaning the Cyclones need to take care of Utah on the road Saturday night before doing the same vs. Kansas State to conclude the regular season. 

The tiebreaker scenarios the conference has put into place are anything but cut and dry. And when you involve more than two teams, it gets even more complicated, reason being that with as many teams as the league has now, there is no way for everyone to play everyone during that year. 

One of the main plans to break ties is using common opponents, as that eliminates someone having beaten up on the lower half of the standings. 

To show you just how complex it all is, let us assume Arizona State and Iowa State win out as expected while West Virginia falls to Texas Tech and Kansas does pull another upset, knocking off Colorado. That would mean the Buffalos, Cyclones and Sun Devils are all tied for second place in the standings.

Here are the tiebreaker rules for this year in the Big 12:

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used: after one team has an advantage and is “seeded,” all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaking procedure will be applied.

1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:

• If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two teams or three or more team tie).”

• If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.

In this instance, Colorado will not have met up against a single team involved in the three-way tie. Per the rules, the tiebreaker would move on to the next step in the process:

• The records of the three (or more) tie teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie. 

This is the scenario for a 4-2 record across all common opponents. Here is the next step in the tiebreaker:

• Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to the group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual ted teams.

Got it? Great, now let’s hope for just some complete and utter craziness over the next few weeks to really make the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff insane. 

More Iowa State & Big 12 Analysis

*Three stars in Iowa State's win over Cincinnati including Stevo Klotz

*Complete game recap of Iowa State's win over Cincinnati

* Scouting the opponent: Get to know QB Brendan Sorsby

* Latest college football playoff rankings

* What Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield had to say about Cyclones

* Updated bowl projections for Iowa State, rest of Big 12

* Pair of ISU verbals compete in state football semifinals in Iowa