Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Auburn Hoops

Hawkeyes Face SEC Foe in NCAA Tournament 1st-Round

IOWA CITY, Iowa - It's difficult predicting what we'll get from Iowa Basketball in the NCAA Tournament this week because that's the way it's been all season. It's like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates. 

The eighth-seeded Hawkeyes tip off in Thursday's first round against No. 9 Auburn in what can be categorized as a toss-up game, They're teams with contrasting styles and similar resumes. 

Iowa is shooting to reach its first Sweet 16 since '99. The Hawkeyes would be playing in their school-record fifth Big Dance in a row had Covid not canceled it in '20. 

Let's take a closer look at Thursday's match-up: 

TV, Tip Time, Announcers: TNT, 5:50 p.m. CT, Jim Nantz, Bill Raftery, Grant Hill, Tracy Wolfson. 

Betting Lines: Iowa +1/+102, Auburn -1/-120, O/U 151 (Bet Rivers 3-15-23). 

History: First-ever men's basketball game between the schools. 

TOP 5 STORYLINES

1. Iowa's Sweet 16 Drought - As mentioned in this story's opening, the Hawkeyes last trip to the second weekend came in '99, That's when SpongeBob SquarePants premiered. 

2. Bruce Pearl - While an Iowa assistant in the late '80s, Pearl charged rival Illinois with recruiting violations. They eventually led to sanctions against the Illini. 

3. Matt Gatens - The former all-Big Ten performer at Iowa and the state's Mr. Basketball at Iowa City High in '08 began his coaching career with Pearl at Auburn. He was hired as a Hawkeye assistant before this season after a stint at Drake. 

4. Roller-Coaster Ride - Starting with beating Minnesota, 68-56, on Feb. 12, the Hawkeyes have registered a pair of two-game winning streaks with a couple of two-game skids in eight contests. They were 1-6 against Nebraska, Wisconsin and Ohio State, teams in the bottom four of the conference standings. They won four of seven against teams in the Top 4. 

5. Fran McCaffery - Despite some fans' restlessness with the 13-year Iowa head coach, he is not on the hot seat. It's not even warm. As mentioned above, if not for Covid, Iowa would be matching its longest-ever tourney streak. 

Should the Hawkeyes fail to reach the Sweet 16, there will be vitriol. Like with football offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, McCaffery will be back unless he decides to leave, however. And I wouldn't buy into speculation that he's headed to Notre Dame. 

THE MATCHUP

-The Tigers (20-12 overall, 10-8 SEC) rank 32nd in the NCAA's NET with a 3-10 mark in Quad 1 games. Iowa is No. 39 and 4-7 in Quad 1s. 

-Auburn sits at 29th at KenPom.com. It's 49th in adjusted offense and 28th in adjusted defense. The 35-rated Hawkeyes are third and 166th. 

-Iowa and Auburn faced one common opponent. The Hawkeyes split with Northwestern, each winning at home. The Tigers topped the Wildcats, 43-42, on Nov. 23 in Cancun, Mexico. 

-The teams prefer different paces. Iowa ranks 66th in Pom's adjusted tempo. The Tigers are at 165. The Hawkeyes average 80.2 points per game, while Auburn posts are at 72.7. 

-The Tigers boast four players averaging double figures in points. Morehead State transfer Johni Broome (6-10, 235) leads the way at 14.0 PPG and 8.4 rebounds. His 2.32 blocks per game rank 11th nationally. 

-Five different Hawkeyes are scoring in double figures - Kris Murray (20.4), Filip Rebraca (13.9, Tony Perkins (12.4), Payton Sandfort (10.2) and Patrick McCaffery (10.1). 

-Rebounds and free throws can loom large Thursday. Auburn has a rebounding margin of 1.1, while the Hawkeyes are at 1.8. Iowa shoots 73.9 percent on 15.1 foul shots per contest with the Tigers at 70.2 and 14.6. 

HOWE I SEE IT

A true coin-flip game, the betting line hasn't budged much since Sunday's opening. That's partly because it's viewed as an even matchup and also due to the unpredictability of these two teams. 

If Auburn can muck it up and make it a half-court game, its odds of winning go up. The Tigers lock down the perimeter on defense, allowing opponents 28.8 percent three-point shooting, which ranks fifth nationally. That's worrisome for an Iowa outfit that excels when making treys. 

On the bright side for the Hawkeyes, Auburn struggles shooting the three. Its 31.4 percentage from behind the arc ranks 311th nationally. 

I'd like to see Iowa force tempo with its press. Playing zone in the half court also seems like a good idea. 

It will come down to how the Hawkeyes shoot threes. They're 75-of-311 (24.1 percent) from out there in their 13 losses. That includes going 11-for-24 in a setback at Ohio State. In their 19 wins, they're shooting 183-of-441 (41.5 percent) from behind the arc. 

I'll lean on the resiliency Iowa has shown this season. I think it shoots well enough to win a close one. 

PREDICTION

IOWA 78, Auburn 76