Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Rutgers

Hawkeyes Host Scarlet Knights in Big Ten Tilt Saturday

Nov 4, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano leads his team onto the field prior to the first half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at SHI Stadium. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Last week, Iowa and Northwestern set a record when gambling lines-makers put the over-under for total points scored at 29.5. It set a record for the lowest opening number ever in college football. 

It didn't take long to post a new mark. Saturday's Hawkeye game against Rutgers at Kinnick Stadium (2:30 p.m. CT, BTN) opened at 28.5, where it remained Wednesday night. That would be the lowest number at kickoff of all-time, topping last month's Iowa-Minnesota, which sat at 30.5.

If you've followed the Hawkeyes this season, none of the above surprises you. Folks still expecting major improvement from an injury-ravaged offense with a lame-duck coordinator lack an understanding of the situation. 

With elite defense and special teams, fans should hope for an offense that limits mistakes and takes advantage when presented with good field position. Consider Iowa's lone touchdown in a 10-7 win against Northwestern Saturday as an example. 

Hawkeye defensive tackle Anterio Thompson blocked his second punt of the season, setting his team up at the Northwestern 25-yard line. On the seventh play of "the drive," Deacon Hill hit tight end Addison Ostrenga with a two-yard touchdown pass on a well-designed play and call. Settling for a field goal there could have sunk Iowa. 

The Wildcats tied the game at 7-7 with less than two minutes remaining in regulation. At that point, many Iowa fans probably lacked confidence after seeing their team come up short in a similar setup during a 12-10 loss to Minnesota in its prior contest. 

The Hawkeyes started out on their 28. Hill hit veteran wideout Nico Ragaini with an eight-yard pass on first down. Two plays later, he connected with Ohio State transfer receiver Kaleb Brown on a 23-yard completion. After three running plays gained a total of three yards, kicker Drew Stevens drilled a 53-yard, game-winning field goal. 

That's the blue print, y'all. Sure, Iowa would like to light up the scoreboard against the Scarlet Knights Saturday. While we may witness progress on that side of the ball, it's foolish to think major steps forward are coming there. 

The good news for the Hawkeyes is that they're facing fellow offensively deficient teams in their final three regular-season games, which plays into their hands. And two of those contests are at Kinnick Stadium. 

Statistically, Rutgers offers the toughest challenge for a Hawkeye defense that ranks among the nation's best...again. The New Jersey school averages 26.2 points per game, which ranks 72nd nationally. Illinois and Nebraska, Iowa's other two remaining opponents, rate 107 and 115, respectively. If you were wondering, Iowa is 119 (18.4 PPG). 

The Scarlet Knights (6-3 overall, 3-3 Big Ten) challenged the country's No. 1 team, Ohio State, leading the Buckeyes, 9-7, at halftime last week in Piscataway. The visitors figured it out in the second half en route to a 31-16 triumph. 

Like the Hawkeyes, it's fair saying that Rutgers has played to the level of its competition in '23. Its conference wins have come against Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan State, who are a combined 4-14 in league play. It lost to the Buckeyes, Michigan and Wisconsin, who together are 15-3. 

Iowa won at Wisconsin, 15-6, on Oct. 14. The Scarlet Knights fell in Madison, 24-13, a week earlier. They also both beat Northwestern and Michigan State. 

You can make a strong case that whichever team wins between the Hawkeyes and Rutgers, it will be that program's top win of the season. Perhaps you could say it's Wisconsin for Iowa, but the Badgers lost at lowly Indiana last week. 

If one of these teams can establish a running game, that could push it over the top. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a game in which they rushed for 232 yards (5.4 YPC) against Ohio State, which is allowing just 114.4 per game even after that output. 

The Hawkeyes rank 32nd nationally in rush defense (121.4 YPG). They're allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. 

Iowa is preparing for a dynamic quarterback in Gavin Wimsatt, who has rushed for 411 yards and seven touchdowns, and thrown for 1,263 yards and eight scores. It's smart to load up against the run, though, with him completing just 49.0 percent of his passes with five interceptions. 

Running back Kyle Monangai makes it difficult to focus too much on Wimsatt. The junior from New Jersey leads the Big Ten withy 903 ground yards, more than 300 better than the next guy. 

The Scarlet Knights' offensive line is one of their main strengths. The unit is in a tie for sixth nationally in allowing just eight sacks in '23. That's 11 fewer than Iowa, which ranks No. 73 nationally. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Cory Provus, Jake Butt and Brooke Fletcher on BTN. 

SERIES: Saturday’s game is the fourth all-time meeting between Iowa and Rutgers. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 against the Scarlet Knights, winning twice in Piscataway and once in Iowa City. 

During the lone meeting in Kinnick Stadium, Iowa allowed just five first downs, 47 passing yards and 125 yards total offense in 2019.

BETTING LINES: Iowa showed up as a 1.5-point favorite at Bet Rivers on Wednesday evening. The total sat at 28.5. The Hawkeyes were -121 and Rutgers was +100 to win.

TRENDS

-Rutgers is 6-1-2 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 9 games.

-The total has gone Over in 4 of The Scarlet Knights' last 5 games.

-The total has gone Under in 5 of Iowa's last 6 games.

-The Hawkeyes are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games played in November.

RUTGERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Gavin Wimsat, QB - Has accounted for 15 touchdowns (eight passing, seven rushing) with five interceptions and eight sacks against through nine games. • Ranks seventh in the Big Ten with 92 points responsible for. • Leads Big Ten quarterbacks (tied eighth nationally) with seven rushing touchdowns and is second with 411 rushing yards.

-Deion Jennings, LB - • Ranks 10th in the Big Ten with 7.1 tackles per game. Posted at least six stops in seven games. • Posted four pass breakups. • Matched career high with 13 tackles against Ohio State. • Led the team with nine stops versus Northwestern. Followed with seven tackles and three pass breakups against Temple. Added nine stops in win over Virginia Tech, eight at Michigan.

-Max Melton, S - Owns 21 career pass breakups, six interceptions and four blocked kicks. • Broke up two passes at Indiana, fourth career game with multiple breakups. • Recorded first career sack against Michigan State. • Forced and recovered a fumble in the red zone on the same play at Wisconsin. • Brought in an interception versus Northwestern.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Rutgers: Stack the box on defense, don't punt to Cooper DeJean and protect the ball on offense. 

Iowa: I think we know them by now - Lean into defense and special teams with an offense so conservative that it'd make Barry Goldwater proud. 

GAME NOTES

-Rutgers is 6-3, the most wins in a season since going 8-5 in 2014.

-Rutgers owns three Big Ten wins, matching the program high previously set in 2014, 2017 and 2020.

-The Scarlet Knights are bowl eligible for the seventh time under head coach Greg Schiano and is poised to earn the 12th bowl invitation in program history.

-Rutgers is the most improved team in the Big Ten in total offense (+48.8) and scoring offense (+9.4) compared to 2022.

-Rutgers is 12-1 since 2020 when not committing a turnover in a game.

-Iowa’s defense ranks fourth nationally, giving up 13.7 points per game. The Hawkeyes have allowed one touchdown over their last 12 quarters and three touchdowns over the past 20 quarters.

-The Hawkeyes are 3-1 in one-score games this season.

-Iowa is bowl eligible for the 22nd time in the last 23 seasons under head coach Kirk Ferentz.

-Iowa’s rushing defense has allowed just one touchdown on the ground in 2023, which is tied for the national lead. The Hawkeyes are one of two teams nationally to allow one rushing touchdowns (UCLA).

-The Hawkeyes have allowed 14 or fewer points in 15 of their last 22 games and the defense has held eight teams without a touchdown since the start of the 2022 season. The unit has allowed one touchdown or less in seven of the first nine games of 2023 and in 16 of the last 22 games.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Rutgers - Lenny Kaye

Iowa - L.D. Hotchkiss

HOWE I SEE IT: That the total for this game sat at 28.5 points as of Wednesday night really says it all. Even if it were to go 10 points above that, you'll still be watching a game dominated by defense. 

With that in mind, you've seen what you'll be watching this weekend during most of this season. That's certainly the case in recent games, where points have been at a premium and the outcomes determined by key plays down the stretch. 

Iowa seems to be getting better at succeeding at this style of football. Rutgers needs to show it can be patient and win in a hostile environment. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 13, Rutgers 6