The Breakdown: Iowa vs. Wisconsin

No. 18 Hawkeyes and No. 16 Badgers battle in Big Ten West elimination game.

Joseph Maiorana/USA Today Sports

Breaking down Saturday's football game between Iowa and Wisconsin.

Game facts

Time and place — 3:05 p.m. Saturday, Camp Randall Stadium (80,321), Madison, Wis.

TV — FOX (Tim Brando, PBP; Spencer Tillman, analyst; Coley Harvey, sideline)

Radio — Hawkeye Radio Network. Also available on Sirius Ch. 111 and XM Ch. 202

Records — Iowa 6-2 (3-2 Big Ten), Wisconsin 6-2 (3-2)

National polls — Iowa is No. 18 in the Associated Press and coaches polls. Wisconsin is No. 16 in both.

CFP ranking — Wisconsin is No. 13 and Iowa is No. 18.

Series — Wisconsin leads, 47-43-2. The Badgers have won six of the last of the last seven.

Streaks — Iowa has won two. Wisconsin has lost two.

The lines

Point spread — Wisconsin -9 1/2

Moneyline — Iowa +275, Wisconsin -360

Over/under — 38

There have been plenty of @HawkeyeFootball scores over the years when the Heartland Trophy is on the line...🔥. #TouchdownTuesday pic.twitter.com/NnJInHmuRG

— Iowa On BTN (@IowaOnBTN) November 5, 2019

Fast facts

• Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has 94 Big Ten wins, one shy of tying Penn State's Joe Paterno for fifth all-time.

• It's the second trophy game of the season — the Heartland Trophy is on the line. Iowa kept the Cy-Hawk Trophy with the 18-17 win over Iowa State earlier this season.

• Iowa has four shutouts in its last 11 Big Ten games. No other Big Ten team has more than one shutout in conference play since the beginning of the 2018 season.

When Iowa has the ball

Nate Stanley's first trip back to his home state wasn't good — the Iowa quarterback was 8-of-24 with one interception in the 38-14 loss in 2017.

He's a more mature quarterback this time, and the Menomonie, Wis., native is taking, at least on the outside, a this-is-another-game approach.

This game will be all about his management. This is a matchup of two of the best defenses in the nation, and every point is going to be precious. In those types of games, there can be a tendency to force the action.

Stanley is level-headed enough not to become a slinger, but the Hawkeyes will have to occasionally test the Badgers' secondary.

Wisconsin, with its 3-4 defense, is third nationally in passing defense and fifth in rushing defense. It's going to be hard to get big plays.

Wide receiver Brandon Smith won't be back, but there are still a lot of perimeter options for Stanley. And the tight ends — Shaun Beyer and Sam LaPorta — are going to be needed to a.) block and b.) catch short passes.

The Hawkeyes can't afford a lot of third downs in this game, especially not a lot of third-and-longs. They're going to have to be efficient early in drives, and that will have to happen against a Wisconsin defense that has forced three-and-outs on 49.5 percent of opponents' possessions this season.

Iowa's offensive line will have to be at its best. Guard Kyler Schott is expected to return — he was an anchor on the interior early in the season.

The Badgers have 32 sacks this season. Watch for Wisconsin inside linebacker Chris Orr, who has nine sacks over the last five games.

"I'm not saying these guys are the Pittsburgh Steelers, but it kind of reminds me of the Steelers when I coached in the National Football League," Ferentz said. "That would be the comparison I'd go to. They have a lot of different ways to just put the pressure on you and they're kind of subtle with some of the things they do. But they're impactful, and they made it tough to move the ball and score points."

When Wisconsin has the ball

Let's see, it will be Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor, and Jonathan Taylor.

The Badgers' running back is coming off a season in which he had 2,194 yards. He already has 1,009 this season to go with 15 touchdowns.

The Badgers will feed him until somebody stops him, and even then they'll keep feeding him.

It's that one big play, Ferentz said, that can kill you.

"When you play a guy as good as Taylor, you might be stopping him for a while, but it's that threat that he can take it and then go the distance," Ferentz said. "Those plays break your back. They're tough to come back from. The big thing is you're on edge the entire game as long as he's out there. You have to respect his ability to finish plays, and it's really a significant factor."

Kirk Ferentz has coached against @saquon and Christian McCaffrey, among others.

He puts @BadgerFootball's @JayT23 right up there with them.

"They've got as good a running back as we've seen during our time here." pic.twitter.com/ISvozYmjBv

— Iowa On BTN (@IowaOnBTN) November 5, 2019

Ohio State held Taylor to 52 yards, so there is a blueprint.

The Hawkeyes figure to stack the box with eight players, but they have to be careful with Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan. Coan has completed 74.5 percent of his passes this season, third among FBS quarterbacks.

The Badgers' top six receivers this season have caught 15 or more passes, so Coan has a variety of options. Sophomore tight end Jake Ferguson has at least one catch in all 21 games he's played. Junior wide receiver Quintez Cephus leads Wisconsin with 27 catches for 410 yards.

And for all of the talk about Wisconsin's defense, remember that Iowa ranks third nationally in scoring defense, sixth in total defense and eighth in rushing defense. 

The final thought

It's highly doubtful that this is going to be a points bonanza.

Iowa won the 2015 game here, 10-6. Wisconsin won the next season in Iowa City, 17-9. This feels like it's going to be like those games.

The winner stays in the West Division race, the loser spends the rest of the regular season jockeying for bowl position.

Iowa is mature enough to handle Camp Randall's atmosphere. The 2017 game was brought up a lot earlier in the week, but quite a few of the Hawkeyes who played in that game are back, older and wiser.

This will be a game about maturity, because one mistake could be disastrous.