Howe: Iowa Football Season Prediction

Game-By-Game Prognostications for 2022 Campaign

Photo - Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com

IOWA CITY, Iowa - It's that time of year again, when I end up looking like Kreskin or Uri Geller. Google it. I'm old. 

Last year, I predicted Iowa Football would finish the regular season at 9-3. It ended up 10-2. I missed the Iowa State, Purdue and Minnesota games. 

According to Sports Illustrated, the Hawkeyes face 22nd toughest schedule in the country this fall. Phil Steele ranks the slate No. 28. 

By comparison, Steele rated Iowa's '21 schedule at 50. It didn't include Big Ten East powers Ohio State and Michigan, which come onto this year's lineup. 

The Hawkeyes last played the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the same season in '13. They lost, 34-24, in Columbus and beat the Wolverines, 24-21, in Iowa City. Results were the same in '10 and '09, when both blue bloods were on the schedule. 

In Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz's 23 years leading the program, the Hawkeyes have played Ohio State and Michigan in the same season seven times. They've not swept those programs in the same year and have been swept just twice ('05, '06). 

Iowa plays host to three of its four trophy-game opponents in '22. Iowa State, Wisconsin and Nebraska come to Kinnick Stadium, while the Hawkeyes travel to Minnesota. 

Steele ranks Iowa as the No. 20 team in the country to kick off the season. Oddsmakers put the Hawkeye over/under win total at 7.5. 

A difficult schedule brings opportunity. If Iowa navigates it successfully, it can reach great heights this fall. 

Here's how I see it shaking out: 

South Dakota State at Iowa, Sept. 3, 11 a.m. CT, FS1

Did You Know?: SDSU's leading tackler from last season, Adam Bock, hails from Solon (IA) High. Hawkeye linebacker Seth Benson, a Sioux Falls native, was verbally committed to the Jackrabbits for six months before Iowa offered. 

Skinny: To the uninitiated, this game sets up as a walkover for the Hawkeyes. They know better having fallen to FCS power North Dakota State in '16 and their hands full with Northern Iowa on multiple occasions. The Jackrabbits are more formidable than plenty of FBS programs. If Iowa stumbles around in this one, SDSU is capable of upsetting it. That said, if the Hawkeyes are hoping for a special season, they have no business losing the opener. 

Prediction: Iowa 30, SDSU 10

Iowa State at Iowa, Sept. 10, 3 p.m. CT, BTN

Did You Know: Iowa's six-game winning streak in the series matches its second longest ever (1916-20, '33). The Hawkeyes won 15 in a row from '83-'97. ISU's best streak was five straight ('98-'02). 

Skinny: Iowa won in Ames last season against what was predicted to be one of the best teams in Cyclone history. While coach Matt Campbell has worked wonders at ISU, he's been unable to figure out his cross-state rival, dragging behind him an 0-6 record against Iowa. I picked the Cyclones to win this game last year because I thought they were better on paper. I feel the opposite way this season. The Hawkeyes own an edge in experience and enjoy the home field in '22. One can't account for some weirdness that's happened in this series, so I can only go with logic. 

Prediction: Iowa 24, Iowa State 16

Nevada at Iowa, Sept. 17, 6:30 p.m. CT, BTN

Did You Know: These teams will be playing for the first time ever. Also, Reno, Nevada, where the university is located, hosted 550 people playing checkers in order to win the world record for the most people playing checkers at one time in '14.

Skinny: A matchup designed as a homecoming for Hawkeye alum Jay Norvell lost some luster when he left Reno to coach Colorado State this past offseason. Some juice lost was re-injected by schedule makers who put this game under the lights at Kinnick Stadium. The Wolf Pack owns a 3-25 all-time mark against Power 5 schools after winning at Cal a year ago. It was picked to finish fourth in the six-team Mountain West, West Division at conference media days last month. Nevada lost nine starters on offense, including its quarterback, top seven receivers and four linemen.  

Prediction: Iowa 34, Nevada 9 

Iowa at Rutgers, Sept. 24, TBA, TBA

Did You Know: Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano was the defensive coordinator at Ohio State when Iowa thumped the Buckeyes, 55-24, in '17. Rutgers was founded in 1766, making it the eighth oldest university in the country. 

Thoughts: Schiano enters Year 3 of Tenure 2 running the program with an 8-14 overall mark and 5-13 Big Ten record in his first two seasons back. The Scarlet Knights had dropped 21 conference contests in a row before his return. Amazingly, Rutgers has not won a Big Ten game at home in four years. Schiano has upgraded the talent in North Jersey but it remains to be seen how much ground he's made up digging out of a huge hole. It's a dangerous spot for the Hawkeyes, traveling halfway across the country for their first road game of the season. 

Prediction: Iowa 20, Rutgers 13

Michigan at Iowa, Oct. 1, TBA, TBA

Did You Know: Iowa has scored three points in each of its last two meetings with the Wolverines and 20 total the last three times the teams faced off. The Hawkeyes won, 14-13, against previously unbeaten Michigan in '16. 

Skinny: It's the rematch of December's Big Ten Championship game in which the Wolverines steam rolled Iowa in Indianapolis. These teams will be favored to be unbeaten at this point of the season and the matchup serves as the clear headliner for the conference this week, likely putting it in the national spotlight. Michigan has won the last two meetings in this series. Ferentz has posted a 7-7 record against the Wolverines, including four wins in a row against them at Kinnick Stadium. This smells like one of those memorable experiences in the historic venue. 

Prediction: Iowa 17, Michigan 16

Iowa at Illinois, Oct. 8, TBA, TBA

Did You Know: Famous children’s book writer Shel Silverstien, a Chicago native, was expelled from the University of Illinois after just one year at the school for bad grades. 

Skinny: Talk about a trap/let-down game. Iowa needs to be on its toes in Champaign, a place where it's won four in a row. The Hawkeyes have captured the last eight meetings in the series, the last loss coming in '08. Ferentz is 13-3 all-time against the Illini. In his return to the Big Ten, Iowa alum Bret Bielema didn't get to coach Illinois last season at Kinnick because of testing positive for COVID-19.  The storyline about him facing his alma mater looking for an upset should grab plenty of headlines this week. He was 3-2 against the Hawkeyes while leading Wisconsin from '06-'12. 

Prediction: Iowa 28, Illinois 16

Iowa at Ohio State, Oct. 22, TBA, TBA

Did You Know: A Buckeye tree is planted at the Ohio Stadium Buckeye Grove for each player who earned All-American status the previous season.

Skinny: Iowa should head to The Shoe with plenty of motivation, some of it coming from being more than a three-touchdown dog. These teams come into this meeting off of a bye week, leaving a lot of time for buildup if both are unbeaten. The Hawkeyes' last win in Columbus came in '91. They've lost seven in a row there. Ferentz is 2-8 against the Buckeyes, but Iowa won the last meeting, 55-24, in '17 at Kinnick. The Hawkeyes have a puncher's chance here with a strong game plan and a clean performance, but it's clearly their toughest game of the season. 

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Iowa 17

Northwestern at Iowa, Oct. 29, 2 p.m. CT, TBA

Did You Know: The Hawkeyes won 21 games in a row against Northwestern from '74-'94. Since then, the Wildcats hold a 14-11 advantage. 

Skinny: Iowa is facing a nemesis for its annual homecoming game for a second year in a row. It's hoping for a better than last fall's 24-7 debacle against Purdue. The Wildcats have won during their last three trips to Kinnick Stadium and have captured four of the last six meetings in this series overall. The Hawkeyes emerged victorious in '21, winning, 17-12, in Evanston. Northwestern has posted 3-9 records in two of the last three season, winning the Big Ten West Division in between. It's hard predicting what the 'Cats will look like this fall, but it would be foolish to count them as a layup for Iowa.  

Prediction: Iowa 19, Northwestern 12

Iowa at Purdue, Nov. 5, TBA, TBA 

Did You Know: Muppets creator Jim Henson grew up with Theodore Kermit Scott. Scott was a Professor of Philosophy at Purdue University and the namesake for Henson's most famous muppet, Kermit the Frog.

Skinny: Another thorn in the Hawkeyes' side, Purdue will deploy two of Iowa's top receivers from a year ago in this one. Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Charlie Jones will be talked about a lot during this week after leading Iowa City during the offseason. At least wideout David Bell is off to the NFL after tearing the Hawkeyes apart for three years in a row. The Boilers have won four of the last five meetings in this series, including the last two. Their offense gives successful Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker fits, scoring at least 24 points during the last five matchups. The Hawkeyes have yielded an average of 17.4 a game in the span. 

Prediction: Purdue 24, Iowa 21

Wisconsin at Iowa, Nov. 12, TBA, TBA

Did You Know: Nirvana recorded a portion of its breakthrough album Nevermind in Madison, Wisc., home of the University of Wisconsin. 

Skinny: For the third week in a row, the Hawkeyes face an opponent that's had their number. The Badgers have claimed five of the last six games in the series and eight of the last 10. That includes a 27-7 victory last season in Madison. It's been a pretty consistent formula for Wisconsin against Iowa - run the ball and stop the run. The Badgers held a 166-24 rushing advantage in '21. They're favored to win the West this season and it comes with the pressure of not having claimed the division since '19 after having captured three of the previous four crowns. 

Prediction: Iowa 13, Wisconsin 10

Iowa at Minnesota, Nov. 19, TBA, TBA

Did You Know: The tasty honeycrisp variety was created in an apple breeding program at the University of Minnesota. 

Skinny: Does Floyd of Rosedale even remember what it's like living in the Twin Cities? He last resided there in '14. The Hawkeyes have won seven in a row and nine of the last 10 meetings in the series. Minnesota is considered a title contender in the West and winning the division could come down to topping their rival to the south. It boasts a veteran quarterback in Tanner Morgan and one of the league's best running backs in Mo Ibrahim. A talented receiving core, led by Chris Autman-Bell, also returns. 

Prediction: Minnesota 23, Iowa 20

Nebraska at Iowa, Nov. 25, 3 p.m. CT, TBA

Did You Know: The process for making McDonald's McRib sandwich was developed at the University of Nebraska. 

Skinny: Maybe Nebraska's Scott Frost and his Minnesota counterpart, P.J. Fleck, can create a support group for programs owned by Iowa. Neither man has beaten the Hawkeyes during their tenures. Last year had to be especially difficult for the Huskers, who led Iowa 21-6 with 5:54 left in the third quarter only to fall, 28-21. Nebraska remade its roster and coaching staff during the offseason, and the pressure is on Frost. Who knows? Maybe this will be his last game coaching his alma mater. 

Prediction: Iowa 31, Nebraska 20

---

Final Overall Record: 9-3

Final Big Ten Record: 6-3