Odds & Trends: Iowa-Northwestern

A Look at This Week's Big Ten West Matchup from a Gambling Angle

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Folks expecting aesthetically pleasing football when Iowa and Northwestern match up Saturday likely will be disappointed. This one shapes up as a slog. 

These teams are at the bottom of the Big Ten in scoring and usually play very conservatively against each other. Expect a lot of punting and wrestling for field position. 

Strange events also tend to occur in this series, so it's not a game for the faint of heart when wagering.  Let's take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:

Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 10.5-point favorite in the Vegas Insider consensus. The number remained there as of Thursday night. Most of the books in the consensus showed it at 11.0, however, and BetMGM was at 11.5.

Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with the Hawkeyes at -465, and it dropped to -450 as of Thursday evening. Northwestern opened at +350, a number that fell to  +340 on Thursday.

Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.

The VI consensus puts it at 37.5 Thursday evening, up from a 35.5 open. Every book in the consensus put it at 37.5 on Thursday night.

Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.

As of Thursday night, 57 percent of the bets placed on the contest went with Northwestern, according to the Action Network.

These percentages can, and often do shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.

Northwestern Trends

-Northwestern is 3-7 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 10 games overall.

-Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.

-Northwestern is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games following a straight up loss.

-Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

-Northwestern is 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

-Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 road games.

-Over is 5-2 in Northwestern's last 7 road games.

Iowa Trends

-Iowa is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS loss.

-Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

-Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games.

-Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

-Iowa is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

-Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 home games.

-Under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Matchup Trends

-Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

-Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

-Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Howe's Best Bet: Northwestern +10.5

The logic behind this pick is that Iowa hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in its last two games. Picking it to cover double digits seems goofy. That said, my picks have sucked this season, for the most part, so maybe I shouldn't use logic.