Odds & Trends: Iowa-Ohio State

A Look at This Week's Game from a Gambling Angle
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IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa football is an unusually large underdog Saturday when it plays at Ohio State. How unusually large? 

The 29.5-point spread favoring the Buckeyes is the largest for the Hawkeyes since Nebraska was a 42.5-point pick back in 2000. This week's number is up 8.5 points from where it stood heading into the season.

The number makes sense when you consider Ohio State boasts the Big Ten's top scoring offense (48.8 points per game) while Iowa owns the worst (14.7). Both teams are coming off a bye week. 

It's not the most attractive play on the board with a number that large, but let's take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective as we do in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:

Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 21.0-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus. It quickly rose to the Buckeyes -29.5 and sat there on Thursday night. about half of the books in the consensus were already up to 30.0, however. 

Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with the Hawkeyes at +2000, and it rose to +2200 as of Thursday evening. Ohio State opened at -10,000, a number that remained there on Thursday.

Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.

The VI consensus puts it at 49.5 Thursday evening, up from a 48.5 open. Fan Duel, Caesars and Bet Rivers showed it at 50.0 Thursday night.

Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.

As of Thursday night, 62 percent of the bets placed on the contest went with Ohio State, according to the Action Network.

These percentages can, and often do shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.

Ohio State Trends

-Ohio State is 3-0-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 4 games overall.

-Buckeyes are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October.

-Ohio State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games following a straight up win.

-Buckeyes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

-Ohio State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

-Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes' last 4 games overall.

-Over is 5-1-1 in Ohio State's last 7 games in October.

Iowa Trends

-Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 road games.

-Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

-Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win.

-Hawkeyes are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

-Iowa is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

-Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes' last 4 games in October.

-Under is 6-1 in Iowa's last 7 games overall.

Matchup Trends

-Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

-Hawkeyes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

-Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Howe's Best Bet: Iowa +29.5

I can't pick Iowa to win this game based on what we've seen through half of this season. That said, the Hawkeye defense is legit and prideful. I expect it to play well after the bye week and help the visitors stay within the number. I also like the under. 


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Rob Howe
ROB HOWE

HN Staff