Odds & Trends: Iowa-Rutgers Football

A Look at This Week's Game Under the Lights from a Gambling Angle

Suchat Pederson/The News Journal via USA TODAY NETWORK

IOWA CITY, Iowa - As I'm writing this piece on Friday morning, the total for Saturday night's Iowa-Rutgers game sits at 33.5, according to the Vegas Insider consensus. That's wild. 

How low will it go after opening at 35.5? If bettors look closely at how good these defenses are performing and the struggles of the offenses, perhaps it's not done falling.

A Rutgers program not known for offering much of a home environment is pushing hard for a sellout. With the game being under the lights, that could provide some juice for the Scarlet Knights, who last won a Big Ten contest at SHI Stadium in 2017, a streak of 19 losses in a row. 

The conference opener for both schools represents the first road trip of the season for the Hawkeyes (2-1). They own wins against South Dakota State and Nevada. Rutgers (3-0) has away victories Boston College and Rutgers, and one at home versus Wagner. 

Iowa is 1-2 against the point spread this season, earning its first cover last week against Nevada. The Scarlet Knights are 2-1, falling short of a cover at Temple a week ago. 

Let's take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:

Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 7.5-point favorite at Vegas Insider. It remained there Friday morning. It stood there for all of the books in the VI consensus with the exception of Fubo Sportsbook, which had the Hawkeyes -8. 

Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with Iowa at -323 and it dropped to -312 as of Friday morning. It opened with Rutgers at +249, a number that rose +245 on Friday.

Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.

As we wrote at the top of this article, VI consensus puts it at 33.5 Friday morning, down from a 35.5 open. Fubo and Points Bet were the consensus members holding at 34.0 Friday morning. 

Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.

As of Friday morning, 59 percent of the bets placed on the contest went on Rutgers, according to the Action Network.

These percentages often shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.

Rutgers Trends

-Rutgers is 6-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 7 games in September.

-Scarlet Knights are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.

-Rutgers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 conference games.

-Scarlet Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

-Rutgers is 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

-Under is 6-1 in Scarlet Knights' last 7 games following a ATS loss.

-Under is 9-3 in Rutgers' last 12 conference games.

Iowa Trends

-Iowa is 6-2-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 9 road games.

-Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

-Iowa is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall.

-Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

-Iowa is 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

-Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes' last 4 games overall.

-Over is 4-0 in Iowa's last 4 conference games.

Matchup Trends

-In the two previous meetings between the programs, each one as covered the spread once. 

Howe's Best Bet: Rutgers +7.5

Iowa wins the game but asking it to cover more than a touchdown is a bridge too far for me.