Preview, Prediction: 2023 B1G Championship

Underdog Iowa Looking to Shock College Football World Against No. 2 Wolverines

Iowa's Jay Higgins (34) and Logan Lee (85) tackle Michigan's JJ McCarthy (9) on Oct. 1, 2022 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis comes with interesting angles, to be sure. It's unfortunately missing what would have been the best storyline. Bad luck sunk it. 

We could be writing about Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All Jr. facing their former teammates from Michigan, before and after the game. Instead, they're out after season-ending leg surgeries.

"I'm definitely excited to take advantage of this opportunity we have in front of us in a rematch against Iowa for the Big Ten Championship," Michigan defensive back Mike Sainristil said Monday. "Unfortunately, we don't get to play against our former teammates, Cade and Erick. But I've already spoken to Erick. He's super fired up. I haven't had a chance to talk to Cade yet."

Whenever the Wolverines were asked about McNamara and All Jr. after they left Ann Arbor for Iowa City last winter, the vibes were positive. They expected good things for their former teammates at their new home. 

"We knew them two guys transferring over there was going to help that team tremendously, a team that already has a really good defense," Sainristil said. "It's unfortunate for them both to have the injuries that they suffered this season. 

"We talked about it. We said, look, Cade, Erick, are going over there. That Iowa team is probably going to be who we see if we handle everything how we need to, to get into the Big Ten Championship." 

Michigan took care of its business in reaching Saturday's title game (7 p.m. CT, FOX). The Hawkeyes won the West Division by two games during a season that also saw them lose top tight end Luke Lachey and lockdown cornerback/punt-returner extraordinaire Cooper DeJean to season-ending injuries. 

These teams met for the league title just two years ago. The Wolverines rolled to a 42-3 victory, earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. Michigan then won, 27-14, last season at Iowa. 

Oddsmakers aren't expecting this to be much of challenge for the Wolverines. Michigan opened as a 22-point favorite Sunday, a number more than double the opening line for this championship matchup in '21. 

Linesmakers also are calling for a low-scoring contest. They set the over/under point total at 35.5. The Wolverines are averaging 37.6 points a game this season. 

In other words, not many people outside of the Hawkeye locker room are giving them much of a chance at winning Saturday. 

"Block the noise out," linebacker Jay Higgins said of others' opinions. "We're at Iowa, so we understand the type of love we get from the media. I don't think that's no surprise. We were expected to lose last week as well. If we listened to what people say about the games before they actually happen, there would be no point of going out there and competing." 

It's not breaking news that Iowa is the reason for the predicted low total. The Hawkeyes are averaging 18.0 points per game, which is tied for the second fewest among Power 5 programs in '23. 

The over-under total for last week's Iowa-Nebraska game in Lincoln closed at 24.5, an all-time low. According to Brett McMurphy of Action Network, Hawkeye games from this season represent in the four lowest totals in college football history. 

It's important to note that gambling lines aren't predictors. They're estimates based on public opinion. It's freaky how close they are so often, though. 

One thing's for sure, nobody playing on Saturday will be thinking about who wagered what. Well, at least that's the hope. 

We could very well get a defensive showdown. The Wolverines lead the country in scoring defense (10.25 PPG), while Iowa ranks fourth (12.17). That also helps explain the game's low total. 

"It's a good matchup," Michigan running back Blake Corum said. "Iowa has always had a strong defense. We definitely have to prepare really well for their defense." 

Said Wolverine quarterback J.J. McCarthy: "That's something about the Iowa defense that makes them so good all the time is their discipline, their techniques and their coverages and everything about it. They don't do a lot, but they do it really, really well. They have some athletes back there that can make plays and disrupt the ball in the air." 

The Hawkeyes are built for a low-scoring game decided in the fourth quarter. As mentioned earlier, their offense lacks consistency, which is partly explained by injury loses. 

The Iowa attack has shown recent signs of evolving, especially in hitting chunk plays at opportune times. The progress made has included McNamara's replacement, sophomore Deacon Hill, who has seen his first real college reps this fall. 

Hill has been prone to mistakes, although he's gotten better in that area as well. His pocket awareness will be tested in this matchup. He must listen to his internal clock and then make good decisions down the field. 

The running game can take pressure off the quarterback. It's shined at times in '23, and the line and backs must be at their best Saturday. Receivers have to avoid drops that have plagued them at times. 

It's hard to imagine the Hawkeyes springing an upset if their offense goes into the three-and-out tailspin we've witnessed too often in '23. Michigan's physical style will wear down Iowa's defense in that case. 

Members of the Hawkeye offense have heard the criticism for the last three years, not just this week. They were reminded of the perceived slander watching last Saturday's Michigan-Ohio State game. 

"For (FOX color commentator) Joel Klatt to call us the "Little Engine That Could," I think that's great. I love that," left tackle Mason Richman said. "We're definitely going to be using that one as a little chip on our shoulder."

Iowa's also working through issues it experienced in place kicking during recent weeks. Starter Drew Stevens saw two his his field goals blocked at Nebraska before being replaced by Marshall Meeder for the game-winning try. 

Special teams are especially important for the Hawkeyes. It's an area in which they usually hold an advantage. It's one of Michigan's strengths as well. 

Wolverine kicker James Turner is 12 of 14 on field-goal attempts this season, which includes a pair of 50-yarders. Tommy Doman has 57 touchbacks on 81 kickoffs. 

Iowa punter Tory Taylor's exploits have garnered much more attention than the position usually receives. While not Taylor's equal, Doman has caused 18 fair catches on his 36 punts with 14 of them being downed inside the opponent 20 yard line. 

For the special teams to matter, Iowa's defense must lead the way in limiting McCarthy, Corum and one of the country's best offensive lines. They are the current Bullies of the Big Ten. 

"A big part of it is being able to stop the run. That's really where they get things set up," Hawkeye defensive end Joe Evans said. "Corum is a tremendous back. I think that's where it really starts. We just have to be really sound there." 

Motivation should not be a problem for Iowa. Has Higgins and Richman said, the Hawkeyes are taking an us-against-the-world approach in preparing to upset mighty Michigan. 

"To be honest, everybody in the (Iowa Football) facility loves that. We love that narrative of being the underdog," Evans said. "I'll be honest with you, I don't think anybody thought we'd be in this position after we lost 31-0 at Penn State (Sept. 23). We don't really care what anyone else thinks outside the facility. All the opinions that matter are the people in the facility. 

"It's going to come down to how we prepare and how we do things in the week. We're just really pumped up to play." 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, Jenny Taft on FOX. 

SERIES: Michigan holds a 44-15-4 advantage in the series that began with a 28-5 Iowa win in 1900. The first meeting between the two teams was played in Detroit and the second in Chicago. 

The Wolverines have won the last three meetings, including a 27-14 victory last season in Kinnick Stadium. It is the second meeting in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Wolverines won, 42-3, in 2021 in Indianapolis.

BETTING LINES: Iowa stood as a 23.0-point underdog at Bet Rivers on Tuesday afternoon. The over-under total sat at 36.0. The Hawkeyes were +1400 and Michigan was -5000 to win.

TRENDS

-Michigan is 6-2 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 8 games.

-The total has gone Over in 7 of the Wolverines' last 8 games.

-The total has gone Under in Iowa's last 7 games.

-The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the underdog.

MICHIGAN PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Blake Corum, RB- In '23, the Virginia native has rushed 202 times for 976 yards (4.8 YPC) and a program-record 22 touchdowns. His 53 career scores on the ground rank second all-time among Wolverines (Anthony Thomas, 55). He's recorded a rushing touchdown in every game this season, with two or more in eight of 12 contests. He's a Maxwell Award semifinalist and a two-time academic All-Big Ten selection. 

-J.J. McCarthy, QB - A junior from the Chicago area, McCarthy is incredibly efficient and not prone to mistakes. He's a finalist for the Unitas Award, and a semifinalist for the Maxwell and O'Brien awards. McCarthy is 24-1 as the Michigan starter. In his career, he's completed 433 of 638 passes (67.8 percent) for 5,718 yards and 46 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. Among Wolverines with at least 20-plus TDs, he ranks first in touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.1:1). 

-Kris Jenkins, DT - The '23 Bednarik Award semifinalist is a team captain and a handful for opposing offensive linemen. His contributions don't show up in gaudy statistics, but rest assured, he's impacting the game. He's started 30 contests for the Wolverines, including all 26 during the last two seasons. He's recorded 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception in '23. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Michigan: Wear down Iowa's defense with methodical drives taking what the Hawkeyes give you. Play man-to-man defense on receivers and send extra pressure at Iowa QB Deacon Hill. 

Iowa: The Hawkeyes probably need to win the turnover battle. The defense and special teams must help the offense even more than they already have this season. Iowa can't survive falling behind by 10 or more points early. 

GAME NOTES

-With a win Saturday, Michigan would secure its 45th Big Ten Championship, the most in conference history. 

-The Wolverines have won 28 consecutive regular-season games dating back to '21. It's tied with the 1901-03 Michigan squad and Ohio State (2005-07) for the longest streak in Big Ten annals. 

-Michigan has outscored its opponents, 241-65, in the first half of games this season. 

-The Wolverines have scored on 17 of its opponents' 23 turnovers in '23. That's added up to 91 points. They forced at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games. 

-Michigan is averaging just 26.4 penalty yards per game this fall. It's the lowest number in the country. 

-Iowa’s defense ranks fourth nationally, giving up 12.2 points per game. The Hawkeyes have allowed three touchdowns over their last 24 quarters, five touchdowns over the past 32 periods and 13 total touchdowns in 2023. The 12.2 scoring average would be the best for the Iowa program since 1981 (11.7 points).

-Since the start of the 2015 season, Iowa is 71-2 when leading by eight points at any point in a game.

-The Hawkeye rushing defense has allowed just two rushing touchdowns in 2023, which are the fewest in the nation. The Hawkeyes are the only team nationally to surrender two rushing touchdowns.

-Iowa punter Tory Taylor broke the single season punting yardage record for a third consecutive season. He has 79 punts for a record 3,766 yards in 2023.

-The Hawkeyes are 5-1 during '23 in games decided by seven points or less.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Michigan - Nancy Kovack 

Iowa - Joy Harjo

HOWE I SEE IT: Those of us who have watched the Iowa Football season believe there's a path to victory on Saturday. With witnessing the resiliency of this team time and time again, how could we not? 

Reality provides a narrow path, do be sure. The Hawkeyes will need most, if not all, of the breaks and bounces going their way. 

It's really hard to bet on that, especially if you've watched Michigan this season. Oddsmakers don't just pull point spreads out of thin air. The Wolverines are prohibitive favorites, and rightfully so. 

PREDICTION: Michigan 27, IOWA 10