Preview, Prediction: Citrus Bowl

No. 17 Iowa Faces No. 21 Tennessee New Year's Day in Orlando

IOWA CITY, Iowa - The future of bowl games as we know them is, at best, murky. The expansion of the College Football Playoff next season will continue change. It must happen for survival. 

As it stands, star players are opting out of bowls absent the four-team CFP squads. This year the group includes '22 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and fellow Top 5 NFL Draft pick Drake Maye. That trend won't reverse itself.  

It's happening to one team playing in the top bowl outside of the CFP and New Year's Six - the Citrus in Orlando. The Jan. 1 contest pits Iowa against Tennessee. 

We learned Wednesday that Tennessee starting quarterback Joe Milton was opting out of the game. He followed the team's top two running backs to the sideline. It also lost defensive starters Tamarion McDonald and Tyler Baron to the transfer portal. 

We'll have to wait until Monday's kickoff to measure the engagement levels of these teams. Iowa seems invested. No Hawkeyes have opted out of the game. 

Tennessee's fate is tied to a first-time starting quarterback. True freshman Nico Iamaleava is expected to step in for Milton after playing sparingly this season. 

Milton opting out surprised the Hawkeyes, who had been preparing for the veteran quarterback. Any element of surprise Iamaleava can bring will be welcomed in facing the nation's fourth stingiest scoring defense. Iowa allows just 13.3 points per game. 

The 6-foot-6, 206-pound Iamaleava was a five-star recruit in the 247Sports composite rankings. The scouting service ranked him as the No. 2 quarterback nationally in the '23 Class behind Texas' Arch Manning. He also reported scholarship offers from Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, USC and just about everybody else. 

"He's smart, he's competitive. When he makes a mistake, young players always do that, he continues to learn and grow from it and does not repeat it," Vols coach Josh Heupel said Wednesday in Orlando. 

"He's got the ability to reset from play to play, day to day. (He is an) extremely talented young man, but I love the way he works inside of our building, and he has a great demeanor about him. He's great at communicating with his teammates, as well."

Milton has stayed with the team as he prepares for the NFL Draft. He's helping prepare Iamaleava for his moment. 

"I said it to the guys earlier, it's important anytime you have a young player, I don't care what position he's playing, that the other 10 guys around him play at a really high level and do the ordinary things really consistently to allow that guy to function and operate at the level that he is capable of," Heupel said. 

"Listen, this game is never perfect, and we don't expect Nico to play perfect. We expect him to reset and give our playmakers an opportunity to make plays."

The offense will miss running backs Jaylen Wright (1,013 rushing yards) and Jabari Small (475). Establishing a ground game could greatly aid the young signal caller. 

Tennessee will have Dylan Sampson carrying the ball. The sophomore paces the team with seven rushing touchdowns in '23. 

Iamaleava also will have weapons on the outside. Receiver Squirrel White has 64 catches for 764 yards and two touchdowns. Ramel Keyton (32-591-6) and McCallan Castles (21-265-4) will have the Hawkeyes' attention, too. 

The Vols' offensive line earned a spot on the Joe Moore Award's midseason honor roll. It joined Oregon, Georgia and Michigan as the only schools to be named semifinalists for the award in '22 and '23. They've yielded 18 sacks this season, the second-fewest in the SEC behind Georgia (12).

Tennessee understands it's facing a big challenge in an Iowa defense coordinated by Phil Parker, the Broyles Award winner as the nation's top assistant coach this season. 

"It's not just the numbers that say they've got a really good defense, you can watch the film," Heupel said. "They're dialed in. They make you earn it. They don't give up a bunch of big plays, that's in the pass game and in the run game. 

"They're really good on third downs. They've created zero and negatives (plays). They adjust during the course of the ball game extremely well to the things that they're seeing. It will be important for us to go maximize our opportunities and create big plays, but you've got to sustain drives in this one, so first and second down will be really important."

Tennessee has performed well on defense. Its 22.0 points per game allowed ranked fifth in the SEC. Opponents are averaging just 113.8 rushing yards, and the Vols rank fifth nationally with 7.8 tackles for loss a contest. 

They're facing an Iowa offense that ranks 127th in the country in scoring (16.6 points a game). It reached 20 points once in its last seven games. 

Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill has struggled feeling pocket pressure at times this season. He's lost five fumbles, which is tied for the second most in Power 5. 

Both teams feature accomplished specialists. Vol freshman punter Jackson Ross was a finalist for the Ray Guy Award, won by Iowa's Tory Taylor. Tennessee kicker Charles Campbell converted 18 of 23 field goals this fall and has made 115 consecutive extra points, while Hawkeye kicker Drew Stevens is a two-time Groza Award semifinalist. 

The Vols lead the SEC and are 13th in the nation in punt return average (14.67). They're third in the SEC and sixth in the nation in punt return defense, issuing 0.71 yards per return. They have allowed only five punt return yards all season. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Dave Fleming, Brock Osweiler and Kayla Burton on ABC. 

SERIES: The Hawkeyes are 1-2 against the Volunteers in program history. Tennessee won the only bowl meeting, winning 45-28 in the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville.

Iowa won the first ever meeting in 1982, winning 28-22 in Atlanta (Peach Bowl) and the Volunteers were victorious, 23-22, in East Rutherford, New Jersey in 1987.

Iowa is 7-6 all-time in bowl games against current Southeastern Conference opponents.

BETTING LINES: Iowa stood as a 6.5-point underdog at Draft Kings on Wednesday afternoon. The over-under total sat at 35.5. The Hawkeyes were +210 and Tennessee was -258 to win.

TRENDS

-Iowa is 2-4 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last six games

-The total has gone Under in the Hawkeyes' last eight games. 

-Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.

-The total has gone Over in four of the Vols' last six games.

TENNESSEE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-James Pearce Jr., DE- Pearce Jr. earned first-team All-SEC honors from league coaches and the Associated Press. He is averaging 0.71 sacks per game, which is second in the SEC and tops among defensive linemen. His 8.5 total sacks is third in the SEC. He has racked up 13.0 tackles for loss. 

-Dylan Sampson, RB - Sampson is the last man standing among the Vols trio of excellent running backs. The sophomore takes over the lead role with Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright opting out of the game. Sampson rushed for 471 rushing yards this season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He led the team with seven touchdowns on the ground. 

-Cooper Mays, C - The senior earned second-team all-SEC honors this season despite missing the first four games with an injury. His experience in this contest with be vital with a true freshman starting his first game at quarterback. The Vols have won 16 out of their last 21 games with Mays starting at center

KEYS TO VICTORY

Tennessee: Keep its young quarterback out of harm's way as much as possible, which would include establishing the run against a stingy defense. 

Iowa: We pretty much know what Iowa needs to do - take care of the football on offense, leaning into defense and special teams. 

GAME NOTES

-Tennessee's Josh Heupel has never faced Iowa as a head coach. Heupel, however, was the cooffensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Oklahoma when the Sooners beat Iowa, 31-14, in the 2011 Insight Bowl.

-Tennessee redshirt freshman punter Jackson Ross was high school teammates with Iowa senior All-American punter and Ray Guy winner Tory Taylor. Both are from Melbourne, Australia, and attended Haileybury College prior to college.

-While the Vols lead the SEC and are 13th in the nation in punt return average (14.67), they are third in the SEC and sixth in the nation in punt return defense, issuing 0.71 yards per return. They have allowed only five punt return yards all season.

-In 2023, Tennessee has scored on its first offensive drive in nine out of the 12 games it has played with all nine of those resulting in touchdowns. The Austin Peay, Texas A&M and Missouri games were the only times it did not score on the first drive.

-Tennessee is second in the SEC and fifth nationally in tackles for loss per game with 7.8. They are also second in the SEC and 10th in the FBS in total tackles for loss with 93.0. That figure ranks 12th in UT single-season history.

-The Hawkeyes are 5-1 in 2023 in games decided by seven points or less.

-Iowa is one of only nine FBS programs with an active bowl game appearance streak of 10+ years.

-With a victory in the Citrus Bowl, Iowa can reach the 11th win mark for the fourth time in program history (2002, 2009, 2015).

-Iowa had 20 players earn All-Big Ten honors, including first-team selections Jay Higgins (LB), Cooper DeJean (DB and RS) and Tory Taylor (P). 

-The Hawkeyes had four players garner All-America recognition by at least one outlet during the 2023 season. DeJean and Taylor were unanimous consensus All-Americans, the 30th and 31st in program history. 

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Tennessee - Dixie Carter

Iowa - Baulu Kuan

HOWE I SEE IT: Who knows what we'll get in this game? Bowls are tough to predict with teams having different levels of interest, Throw in Tennessee's opt-outs and transfers, and the task becomes more difficult. 

I'm confident saying the Hawkeyes are excited to be competing. Winning an 11th game means a lot to them. 

Iowa knows who it is and how it can win games. It's good at it. 

I can't imagine the new quarterback having much success against this Hawkeye defense. And a turnover or two seems like a good bet. 

The Hawkeyes will be the more prepared and motivated squad in this one. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 13, Tennessee 9