Preview, Prediction: CyHawk Game

Iowa, Iowa State Renew Rivalry Saturday at Kinnick Stadium

Iowa's defensive line (left) lines up against the offensive line of Iowa State during their game on Sept. 11, 2021 at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - An old football saying claims that teams improve the most in a given season from Game 1 to Game 2. Iowa is hoping it takes a quantum leap on offense while in that period of time this week. 

Unrest prevails in Hawkeye Nation heading into Saturday's CyHawk Game showdown with rival Iowa State. Iowa followers are concerned after seeing their offense struggle in last weekend's season-opening, 7-3 victory against FCS South Dakota State. 

We heard for the eight months since the 2021 campaign ended that the offense was being simplified, that progress was expected after last year's struggles. Then the team needed a pair of safeties and a field goal to beat a lower level team at Kinnick Stadium. 

Nothing said this week will ease minds. The Hawkeyes can only calm the masses by coming alive against "little brother." 

Iowa's offensive players politely declined answering questions about what happened against South Dakota State. They wanted to speak about the upcoming game and not look back. 

"Remembering that we did win is the way to push forward. That's as basic as it is," Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras said. "No one in the locker room, offensively, was accepting what we put out there. But the beauty of the game is that we won and we have so much room with correctable things to improve for Saturday. 

"It just all came down to fundamentals. It's an easy fix. It's a simple fix. But it's also very challenging to have everyone do their job, great fundamentally, every single play. And that's our goal for Saturday." 

Make no mistake, the defense and special teams will be heavily relied upon all season. Expecting the offense to consistently pave the wave for success is a fool's errand. But it has to be better if there's any chance at repeating as Big Ten West Division champions. 

One would expect the Cyclone defense to present a stiffer challenge than did SDSU, but that's not a given. Iowa State is replacing plenty of talent on that side of the ball and the Jackrabbits employ a lot of veterans for a team in the national championship hunt in the FCS. 

That said, the Cyclones and head coach Matt Campbell hang their hat on defense. And they have the blueprint that worked for South Dakota State. They'll load up against the run and dare Iowa do beat them with the pass. 

"They're still going to run the same defense and give us the same fits as they did last year," Hawkeye left tackle Mason Richman said. "They'll have a couple of wrinkles for us just like we will for them. 

"Iowa State, they like to play a lot of two-gap stuff. The three-down front, they're trying to get you spread out and into man blocks. So, the biggest thing for us is trying to play together." 

The Hawkeye passing game will be compromised again this week with starting receivers Nico Ragaini and Keagan Johnson out for a second game in a row. Coordinator Brian Ferentz is tasked with doing a better job adjusting to absences and inexperience on the unit than he did last week in gaining 166 total yards. 

Last season, Iowa utilized a risk-averse offensive approach at Iowa State. The visitors were willing to take sacks and punting, betting on the Cyclones to make mistakes. They did. 

The Hawkeyes won the turnover battle, 4-0, and hold a 9-0 advantage in that statistic during the last five meetings. Last season's takeaways by Iowa made up for it only generating 173 yards of offense in a 27-17 victory. It did put together an impressive 10-play, 71-yard touchdown drive late in the first half. 

Expect a similar game plan on Saturday. Iowa will play it close to the vest and hope to hit the shots it takes. Oh yeah, and it will lean heavily on defense and special teams. Have we mentioned that? 

Sophomore quarterback Hunter Dekkers looked sharp in his Iowa State starting debut Saturday, tossing four touchdown passes. Three of them went to receiver Xavier Hutchinson in the 42-10 triumph against visiting Southeast Missouri State, a team well below the talent level of South Dakota State. 

"We're seeing the same things we saw last year (on film)," Iowa safety Kaevon Merriweather said of the Cyclone offense. "It's a team that can definitely hit you with the deep ball. They have a really good running back (Jirehl Brock), a good quarterback. 

"So, I think they're a well-rounded team. We just have to do what we do every single year - come out and execute." 

In the end, the Cyclone defense held Southeast Missouri State out of the end zone most of the day. That said, the RedHawks engineered a 15-play, 63-yard drive to start the game and averaged 4.5 yards per rush. The visitors accumulated 320 yards of offense on the day. 

"They have a really confusing defense," Iowa receiver Arland Bruce IV said. "It's not a traditional defense. It's a three-man front with five DBs. It's an interesting look and something you won't see from a lot of teams. It will be a fun matchup like it always is." 

Iowa State will be looking to end a six-game losing streak in the series. Despite Iowa's offensive struggles in Week 1, they Cyclones are preparing for their rivals to perform better on that side of the ball this week, you know, make a leap from Week 1 to Week 2. 

"They had so many guys out, some great receivers who have been great players for them," Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said. "We have a lot of respect for their quarterback. We have a lot of respect for the offensive line. Their growth from last year to where they are now has been tremendous. 

"From our end of it, again, first games are first games. It's really hard to evaluate (Iowa's offense), especially when you have so many guys out. But I think there are a lot of impressive pieces. We'll have to play really well on defense to be successful." 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Brandon Gaudin, Anthony Herron, Rick Pizzo for BTN. 

SERIES: Saturday’s game will mark the 69th meeting in the series and the first in Iowa City since 2018. Iowa holds a 46-22 advantage in the series that began with a 16-8 ISU win in 1894. 

Iowa has won six straight in the series - the longest streak since winning 15 in a row from 1983-97. The Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings in Iowa City; Iowa State’s last win was in Kinnick, winning 20-17 in 2014. 

Head coach Kirk Ferentz is 13-9 all-time against Iowa State, including winning six straight (and 10 of the last 13) over the Cyclones, dating back to the 2008 season. The teams did not meet between 1935-1976, or 2020. 

The teams played 43 straight seasons from 1977-2019 before the Big Ten announced in 2020 that it would not play non-conference games due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Iowa held a 29-14 advantage in the series from 1977- 2019.

BETTING LINES: Iowa showed up as a 5.5-point favorite at Vegas Insider Sunday night. It moved to the Hawkeyes -3.5  Monday morning. The total opened at 41.5 but was down to 40.5 at some places by Monday morning with it as low as 40.0 at Wynn on Wednesday morning.

TRENDS

-Iowa State is 1-4 Against The Spread in its last 5 games.

-The total has gone UNDER in Iowa State's last 7 games when playing at Iowa. 

-The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa's last 7 games against Iowa State. 

-Iowa is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games.

IOWA STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Will McDonald IV, DE – The Milwaukee native was named first-team All-American by the FWAA and was an All-Big 12 first-team choice for the second-straight season in 2021. The '21 Big 12 Co-Defensive Lineman of the Year, McDonald IV is Iowa State’s career sacks leader with 29.0, ranking fifth all-time in Big 12 history. 

-Xavier Hutchinson, WR – Against Southeast Missouri State, Hutchinson became the first Cyclone with three touchdown receptions in a game since Quenton Bundrage against Iowa in 2013. He has tallied a reception in all 26 games of his career, the fifth-longest streak in school history. He ranks seventh in career receptions (155) and eighth in career receiving yards (1,886). 

-Hunter Dekkers, QB – Became first Cyclone QB with four touchdown passes in his first career start when he did so last week against Southeast Missouri State. He was the second Cyclone QB since 1999 to throw for over 275 yards in first career start. Last season in Ames, he completed 11-of-16 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown against No. 10 Iowa when he came in for starter Brock Purdy. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

ISU: Avoid turnovers and silly penalties. Force the Hawkeyes to throw to win. 

Iowa: Defensive, special teams and an offense with a pulse. Take shots down the field as they will be there. 

GAME NOTES

-Iowa State has finished above .500 in conference play in five-straight seasons for the first time in the modern era (1928-present). ISU has just six winning league seasons in the Big 12 era (2000, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021).

-From 2006-16, ISU was 12-47 on the road ... since 2017, ISU has a 14-13 record in road games.

-Iowa State had seven players who took advantage of the COVID-19 blanket eligibility rule and returned in 2022 for another senior season as a “super senior” in Anthony Johnson (DB), Colby Reeder (LB), Xavier Hutchinson (WR), Darren Wilson Jr. (WR), O’Rien Vance (LB), Jacob Hillman (TE) and Ben Garbarini (P).

-ISU’s roster boasts 90 underclassmen, the eighth-most nationally and most in the Big 12 Conference.

-Cyclone backup QB Ashton Cook’s father, Marv, was an All-American at Iowa and played seven years in the NFL as a tight end, earning two Pro Bowl nods and a first-team All-Pro selection in 1991 with the New England Patriots.

-The Hawkeyes have won six straight games in the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series against Iowa State – the longest streak in the series since winning 15 consecutive games from 1983-97. The Hawkeyes are outscoring the Cyclones, 175-98, during the six games.

-Really, punting is winning. The Hawkeyes have six wins since 2020 when punting eight or more times in a game. Eight other FBS teams have two wins when punting eight or more times.

-Iowa’s defense ranks in the top 12 nationally in six categories. The Hawkeyes are second in first-down defense (6), seventh in total defense (120), ninth in sacks (4) and rushing defense (33), 10th in scoring defense (3.0) and 12th in passing yards allowed (87.0). Iowa leads the Big Ten in fewest first downs allowed (6).

-Clean football… the Hawkeyes committed just two penalties for 15 yards in the season-opening win over South Dakota State. Iowa is second in the Big Ten and third nationally in fewest penalties through Week 1.

-Iowa’s seven points against South Dakota State came via a field goal and two second-half safeties. The Hawkeyes are the first Big Ten team to win a game without scoring a touchdown since Nebraska in 2018. Iowa’s last such win? The 6-4 victory at Penn State in 2004.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

ISU – Clayton Anderson 

Iowa - Jim Foster 

HOWE I SEE IT: Who the heck knows what we'll see this week? This series has a history of goofy developments. And we should know better than relying on Week 1 performances dictating what we'll see here. 

It's hard to imagine Iowa's offense performing much worse than it did in the opener. And we'll see what Cyclones can accomplish against a much toucher defense in Week 2. 

Look for the Hawkeyes to pressure and confuse Dekkers, who is making his first career road start. More experienced quarterbacks wilt in the noise of the north end zone at Kinnick. 

I don't think this game has much of a chance at being aesthetically pleasing unless you are a fan of when players wore leather helmets. It will be a defensive, field-position grind with the outcome decided by a key play or two. 

I think home field is the difference. Take the under if wagering.  

PREDICTION: IOWA 9, ISU 6