Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Illinois Football

Hawkeyes Aiming to Clinch B1G West Championship on Senior Day

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz (left) shakes hands with Illinois coach Bret Bielema before a game on Oct. 8, 2022 at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - With a Hawkeye tattoo on his leg, Bret Bielema will be making his  first visit to Kinnick Stadium as the Illinois head coach. You can bet he'd take great satisfaction in upsetting his alma mater. 

Bielema was scheduled to lead the Illini here two years ago but COVID-19 took him out. He caused plenty of pain for the Hawkeyes when he was the head coach at Wisconsin, beating them three out of five times from 2006-10, including the memorable fake-punt contest in '10 at Kinnick. 

Kirk Ferentz employed Bielema on his staff during his first three seasons as Iowa's head coach ('99-'01). Bielema left to become Kansas State's co-defensive coordinator in '02. 

The relationship between Bielema, Ferentz and Iowa always serves as a storyline when they meet. That's certainly the case this week. 

"Kirk and I have known each other for a long time," Bielema said Monday. "A lot of the things I believe in I carry from the beginning phases of learning from him. So, I'm excited for that matchup and all that goes into it." 

The circumstances add more meaning to the matchup. Iowa clinches the Big Ten West outright with one win in its last two regular-season games. If the Hawkeyes lose both, that leaves the door open for the Illini and others to represent the division at the Dec. 3 conference championship contest in Indianapolis. 

"I'm excited for our guys. Obviously, there's a lot to be said about what's all on the line, but really just to play Iowa at Iowa is just a tremendous opportunity for our guys to continue to grow and see where we're at," Bielema said. 

Saturday serves as senior day for Iowa, which wraps up the regular campaign at Nebraska on Black Friday. The Hawkeyes will honor 20 seniors prior to kickoff. 

After the emotional opening, Iowa will get to work on topping an Illini outfit that has won three of its last four games. The Hawkeyes were winners in five of their last six outings. 

Illinois (5-5 overall, 3-4 Big Ten) recorded a 48-45, overtime victory last week in Champaign. The game featured six lead changes. The Hoosiers led by 15 late in the second quarter before the home team rallied. 

Bielema announced on Wednesday that Luke Altmyer would be the Illini's starting quarterback against Iowa. The Ole Miss transfer injured his head at end of a win at Minnesota on Nov. 4. 

Ball State transfer John Paddock quarterbacked the squad to victory against Indiana, setting a Memorial Stadium record with 507 yards and four touchdowns passing. He engineered the game-winning drive against the Gophers after Altmyer was knocked out. 

"(Altmyer) was our starting quarterback before he left (against Minnesota), and that's where I see it now," Bielema said on Sirius XM's Big Ten Radio Wednesday morning. "The best part that we have is if there's any part of that that gets gray, we have a guy who has proven he can play and do some good things. Super excited about both of those guys."

Both quarterbacks have benefited from a solid 1-2 punch at running back. True freshman Kaden Feagin and Reggie Love III, a junior, have a combined 835 yards (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns rushing. Altmyer has added 282 yards (after sacks) and three scores on the ground. 

Isaiah Williams (68 catches, 893 yards, 5 TDs) is one of the Big Ten's top receivers. He's complemented on the outside by Pat Bryant (36-515-6) and Casey Washington (32-394-1). Tight end Tip Reiman (15-171-3) is a red-zone weapon. 

Like Iowa, the Illini O-Line seems to be improving with time after early-season inconsistency. It will be facing a stiff test in Iowa's front seven (or six). 

The Hawkeye offensive line will be taking on at least an equal challenge. The Illinois defensive tackle tandem of Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. is the best its seen. Linebackers Dylan Rosiek and Seth Coleman play well off of that dynamic duo. 

If the Illinois defense has a weakness, it's the secondary. It's a young unit after losing superb talent from last year's team, including first-round NFL Draft pick Devon Witherspoon. 

Perhaps Iowa can attack it after showing progress in the passing game during last week's 22-0 victory against Rutgers. Quarterback Deacon Hill, who replaced injured starter Cade McNamara midseason, looks like he's getting more comfortable and is gaining confidence. 

Hill completed 20 of 31 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns with one interception against the Scarlet Knights. Ohio State transfer Kaleb Brown enjoyed his best performance as well, contributing as a receiver and runner. 

Illinois likely will find the going tough against this stingy Hawkeye defense. The 12.3 yards per game it allows ranks third best nationally. Its total defense (281.5 YPC) is eighth in the country. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Adam Alexander and Devin Gardner on FS1. 

SERIES: Saturday will be the 79th meeting between Iowa and Illinois, a series that began in 1899. Iowa trails the all-time series, 39-37-2, but the Hawkeyes have won 16 of the last 20 meetings and 13 of the last 15 contests. 

Illinois claimed a 9-6 decision in Champaign last season, snapping Iowa’s eight-game winning streak in the series. Iowa holds a 20-18-2 advantage over the Illini in games played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have won the last seven games between the two schools in Kinnick Stadium.

BETTING LINES: Iowa stood as a 3.5-point favorite at Bet Rivers on Wednesday morning. The total sat at 30.0. The Hawkeyes were -177 and Illinois was +145 to win.

TRENDS

-Illinois is 2-9 Against the Spread (ATS) in its last 11 games.

-The Illini are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.

-The total has gone Under in Iowa's last 5 games.

-The total has gone Over in 4 of the Hawkeyes' last 6 games against Illinois.

ILLINOIS PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Isaiah Williams, WR- The St. Louis product leads the Big Ten in receptions (68), nine ahead of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. (59), and ranks 13th in the nation in catches. Williams ranks second in the Big Ten to Harrison Jr. in receiving yards (893). Williams ranks second to Harrison Jr. in the Big Ten in first-down receptions (39), good for 14th nationally.

-Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, DT - Newton was named an AP Midseason All-American First-Teamer. The Florida native is the national leader in QB pressures among interior defenders (39), according to PFF.  He leads Big Ten defensive tackles by 16 pressures. Newton leads all Power-5 defensive tackles in snaps played with 611 (61.1 per game). He's played 58 more snaps than any other Power-5 interior defensive lineman and 94 more than any Big Ten defensive tackle.

-Keith Randolph Jr. - Randolph is third in the nation in tackles per game among Power-5 defensive tackles (5.1), behind only UCF’s Lee Hunter (5.7) and Notre Dame’s Howard Cross III (5.4). Newton and Randolph were named Preseason All-Americans by multiple outlets prior to the season. Newton was Illinois’ first-ever Preseason AP All-American. Newton led the nation in QB hits (19) and ranked sixth in the nation in pressures (54) in '22.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Illinois: Force the Hawkeyes into passing situations to take advantage of its stout D-Line. Protect the football on offense. 

Iowa: The formula is crystal clear - play the field position game with a dominant defense and strong special teams. Offense limits mistakes and delivers in clutch. 

GAME NOTES

-Four of Illinois’ five wins this season have come in the final minute or overtime. Caleb Griffin has game-winning field goals to beat Toledo (0:05) and Maryland (0:00). Williams has game-winning touchdown receptions from John Paddock at Minnesota (0:50) and against Indiana (OT). 

-Illinois' 48 points against Indiana last week were its most since scoring 55 versus Minnesota in '18. The Illini also had 662 yards on offense, the first time going over 600 yards since the '18 Minnesota game.

-The Illini '23 recruiting class was the program’s highest-ranked class since '09, according to Rivals and highest ranked since '11 according to 247Sports. Ten members of the group have passed the four-game redshirt limit.

-Illinois leads the nation in blocked kicks (5) under first-year coordinator Robby Discher. PFF ranks Illinois’ overall special teams unit at No. 8 in the nation. Iowa’s unit is third.

-Illinois head coach Bret Bielema signed a new six-year contract last December paying him $6M annually. The Hawkeye alumnus will be under contract through '28. The deal has a non-compete against any program in the Big Ten.

-Iowa has won 16 of its last 17 games in the month of November, dating back to '19.

-The Hawkeyes ranks third nationally in scoring defense (12.3 PPG). They've yielded just one touchdown during their last 16 quarters and three TDs in the past 24 periods.

-Iowa’s rushing defense has allowed just one touchdown on the ground in '23, best in the country. It's the only unit nationally to surrender one rushing touchdown.

-The Hawkeyes' senior day honorees include: Erick All, Sebastian Castro, Nick DeJong, Joe Evans, Asher Fahey, Rusty Feth, Kyler Fisher, Jermari Harris, Jay Higgins, Nick Jackson, Logan Lee, Daijon Parker, Nico Ragaini, Chris Reames, Liam Reardon, Quinn Schulte, Noah Shannon, Josef Smith, Steven Stilianos and Tory Taylor.

-Iowa's offense had a season-high 402 yards (179 on the ground, 223 through the air) against Rutgers during last week's 22-0 victory. It represented the highest total for the Hawkeyes in the last 32 games (at Maryland in '21).

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Illinois - Henry Bacon 

Iowa - Tracy Kidder

HOWE I SEE IT: Despite the offensive output by these teams last week, they lean heavily on defense. I would expect another rock fight with the teams playing it close to the vest on offense and battling for field position. 

This matchup could come down to how the interior of the Hawkeye offensive line handles Illinois' super defensive tackles, Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. They wreck games.

This contest will be up for grabs in the fourth quarter, coming down to a key play or two. In these spots, bet on the home team, especially with a crowd as impactful as the one in Kinnick Stadium.  

PREDICTION: IOWA 16, Illinois 9