Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Iowa State

Hawkeyes Travel to Ames Saturday for Renewal of Rivalry

Iowa’s Luke Lachey (85) catches a pass against Iowa State on Sept. 10, 2022 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Tory Taylor lightened the mood right out of the gate on Tuesday. Iowa's senior punter was the first Hawkeye to meet with the media. In a week where emotions are best kept in check, he delivered a light-hearted jab at Iowa State ahead of Saturday's Cy-Hawk game in Ames. 

Taylor was asked about his memories from his first trip to Jack Trice Stadium two years ago. 

"Well, I can really just remember, I guess, how humble and modest their fans are out there. It's a pretty nice place to play. It's not like there's eight-year-olds hanging over the fence giving you the rude finger or anything like that. Excited to go back there and enjoy such a pleasant environment," said the Australian native who's fully embraced this rivalry. 

The Hawkeyes opened the season with a 24-14 victory against Utah State last Saturday. The Cyclones took down Northern Iowa, 30-9. It's hard to say how much we learned from either game. 

We should find out a lot more Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium (2:30 p.m. CT) . Iowa will be looking to avenge last season's 10-7 loss to the Cyclones at Kinnick.

Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara gives the Hawkeyes an advantage at the position in this matchup. The veteran led the Wolverines to a Big Ten championship and the College Football Playoff in 2021.  

The Cyclones will start redshirt freshman signal caller Rocco Becht, who made his first college start last week against UNI. He's the only ISU signal caller with FBS experience, also appearing in three contests as a first-year player in '22. It's safe to say Iowa will be the best defense he's faced in college. 

McNamara will be facing an Iowa State defense that will remind him of the stout units he saw in the Big Ten. The Cyclones are coming off a suppression of Northern Iowa, holding the Panthers to 2.9 yards a rush and intercepting two passes. They're annually strong at holding down opposing offenses.

Iowa's offense started strong against Utah State, scoring via touchdown pass on its first two possessions. It was the first time the Hawkeyes' first score in a season came through the air since 1991. 

Up 14-0 before the Kinnick crowd had settled in with its beverages, it looked like the Hawkeyes would soar against an Aggie team that ranked 104th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring defense for the '23 season. Utah State also had 59 new student-athletes on its roster. 

The Hawkeyes did not fly high. They cruised to victory with a bend-but-don't-break defense and an offense that rushed for 88 yards on 36 carries, a 2.4-yard average. The phases complemented each other well-enough after an offseason of change. 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz felt like the Utah State defense showed the Hawkeyes looks they weren't expecting, which is common in Week 1. The Aggies also had a new coordinator in Joe Cauthen. 

They'll know what they're getting in respected Cyclone defensive coordinator Jon Heacock. Now they have figure out a way to score enough points against a 3-3-5 alignment that's caused them problems before. Multiple Iowa players felt like they were close to putting it all together against Utah State. 

Hawkeye receiver Seth Anderson was pretty straight forward when asked what he saw watching Iowa State on film. 

"A lot of opportunity, for sure," he said. 

In what way? 

"In a good way." 

In the end, Taylor came clean. 

"All jokes aside, it's probably my favorite game of the year. My favorite game we probably every played was at Iowa State a couple of years ago," he said of No. 9 Iowa's 27-17 victory against the 10th-ranked Cyclones in a game where both teams were ranked for the first time in 65 meetings. 

Hawkeye linebacker Kyler Fisher is hoping recent history repeats itself with Iowa winning five in a row in Ames. He's trying to keep a level head this week, which includes cutting off the outside world. 

"I do kind of try to avoid text messages and stuff like that, especially because where I grew up it's Cyclone territory," said Fisher, who is from Farnhamville, Iowa and attended Southeast Valley High in Gowrie. 

"I feel like we've converted a lot of people to Hawkeyes, but it's still heavy Cyclone. So, I try to stay out of it until the game."   

TV ANNOUNCERS: Jason Benetti, Brock Huard and Allison Williams. 

SERIES: 70th meeting with Iowa enjoying a 46-23 advantage in a series that began in 1894. The Hawkeyes saw their six-game win-streak snapped last season. Ferentz is 13-10 all-time against ISU but has won 10 of the last 14 meetings. 

BETTING LINES: Iowa was favored by 4 at Bet Rivers on Wednesday afternoon. The money line was the Hawkeyes at -190 and with ISU at +150. Total sat at 36.5. 

TRENDS

-The total has gone Under in eight of Iowa State's last nine games.

-The Cyclones are 2-6-1 Against The Spread in their last nine games when playing as the underdog.

-The total has gone Under in five of Iowa's last six games.

-The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.

IOWA STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Cartevious Norton, RB - The Georgia native brings a well-rounded skill set to the position. He rushed 11 times for 50 yards and a score against UNI. He's complemented by speedy true freshman running back Abu Sama from Southeast Polk. 

-Jeremiah Cooper, CB - Cooper intercepted two passes, one a Pick-6, and added .5 tackle for loss, leading to winning his league's defensive player of the week honor. The Big 12's defensive freshman of the year in '22. The El Paso, Texas native has shown early in his career that he can make plays. 

-Rocco Brecht QB - I think there are more advanced ISU players than Brecht at this stage of his career. That said, it's hard to imagine the Cyclones winning if he plays poorly. He completed 10 of 13 passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. He has to take care of the ball again. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Iowa State: The Cyclones have been stung by turnovers in this series during coach Matt Campbell's tenure, which can't happen if they want to win this one. 

Iowa: Don't keep pounding the ball into a loaded box. Set up run with pass. Avoid tired tendencies. 

GAME NOTES

-Iowa State has spent six straight seasons ranked among the Big 12’s top three in scoring defense.

-Cyclone linebacker Gerry Vaughn has played in 53 games, the most among active players on the Cyclone roster.

-Jack Trice Stadium has held more than 50,000 fans for 73 games in a row, a streak dating back to 2011.

-Iowa State has won 15 consecutive games when leading at halftime. It's 36-5 with a lead at the intermission under Campbell. 

-The Cyclones ran just 45 plays in the game, tied for the fewest in a win since running 37 vs. Oklahoma State in 1961.

- Ferentz will reach 200 career victories with Iowa's next triumph. He would be the 24th Division I coach to reach the 200-win mark. Former Hawkeye head coach Hayden Fry had 236 career victories.

-Iowa will be playing on a grass playing surface on Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium. The Hawkeyes have won their last five games on grass, including two wins last season – a 24-3 victory at Purdue and a 21-0 win over Kentucky in the 2022 Music City Bowl last season.

-The Hawkeyes rank seventh nationally with the most consecutive winning seasons amongst Power 5 programs. Iowa is one of six teams to win eight or more games each year since 2015 (excluding COVID).

-Over the past five seasons, Iowa has the third-most wins in the Big Ten Conference. The Hawkeyes have 43 overall, trailing only Ohio State (55) and Michigan (46).

-Hawkeye LB Jay Higgins made a career-high 16 tackles, including a career-high 12 solo stops, and one pass break-up against Utah State. The tackle total was the most in the Big Ten and tied for the most nationally Week 1.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Iowa State - Margaret Burchinal

Iowa - Evan Lindquist 

HOWE I SEE IT: We've fallen into a pattern in this series of each team playing conservatively on offense until the other makes a mistake. The approach has made sense because defense as been the strength of both programs. 

I see the same philosophy being employed Saturday. The coaches will play the field-position game, and perhaps take a lower-risk shot here and there. It makes for close games but not always the most entertaining ones. 

Hopefully I'm wrong and both come out ducking and chucking. More likely, it will be running the ball head-on into defensive walls and short, safe passes. 

In the end, the team that limits mistakes and forces the opponent into more of them will win. It's pretty basic football. I'll go with the veteran quarterback in that situation. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 17, Iowa State 13