Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Iowa State Football

Closer Look at Saturday's Cy-Hawk Showdown

Photo: Rob Howe/HN /

IOWA CITY, Iowa - No. 21 Iowa plays host to Iowa State on Saturday in the 71st edition of the rivalry. The Hawkeyes are winners of seven of the last eight in the series with the Cyclones' lone win during that time coming two seasons ago in their last trip to Kinnick Stadium. 

THREE AND OUT

Cyclone Pass Catchers 

Iowa's defense is one of the country's best as evidenced by last week's 40-0 shutout of Illinois State. It was the 20th time in 28 games holding the opponent to 14 or fewer points. 

When trying to find holes in the unit, one must pick nits. In this case, it's wondering how the Hawkeye cornerbacks will hold up against a pair of receivers with NFL potential. 

Iowa's Jermari Harris (6-1, 189) and TJ Hall (6-1, 187) draw the start against Jaylin Noel (5-11, 200) and Jayden Higgins (6-4, 215), who combined for 13 catches on 13 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns during last week's 21-3 win against North Dakota. John Nestor and DeShaun Lee also could find themselves in coverage. 

The whole back seven will be relied upon in locating Noel and Higgins in zone coverage. It's an area where Cash Sebastian Castro could come through as he did with a Pick-6 in Ames a year ago. He'll also find himself on talented sophomore tight end Benjamin Brahmer (6-7, 250). 

Applying pressure on ISU quarterback Rocco Becht (76.9 Week 1 completion percentage) also would be helpful. Iowa's defensive line is very capable of finding success against the Cyclone O-Line. 

A big part of Iowa State's struggles the last decade can be tied to turnovers. If the Hawkeyes produce takeaways against the Clones' passing attack, this one could get ugly. 

Buy or Sell Iowa's Offense

Reality for the Hawkeye offense most weeks likely isn't the 40 points and nearly 500 yards it posted against an FCS opponent. That said, that phase just needs to be average and make the makeables for this team to thrive. 

The degree of difficulty increases significantly. Iowa State prides itself on being a stingy defense, too.

Injuries have handicapped the Cyclones at linebacker, however. Projected starters Caleb Bacon and Will McLaughlin are ruled out for this game. Cael Brezina is expected back after being held out of the opener. 

New Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester will be tasked with figuring out how to exploit the inexperience on the Cyclones' second level. Throwing to running backs and tight ends could prove profitable. 

Lester did well in his Illinois State game plan. The Hawkeyes evolved throughout the contest, finding ways to expose the Redbirds and take advantage of the strength of Iowa student-athletes, including along the O-Line. 

We'll likely see plenty of motion from the Hawkeyes. Messing with the eyes of inexperience linebackers would be a wise approach. 

If quarterback Cade McNamara can replicate his second-half accuracy from a week ago, he'll pick apart ISU with short passes early. That could open up play action, potentially setting up the deep ball and running game. 

Recruiting Race 

Quantifying how much this matchup impacts recruiting competition between the rivals is difficult. They butt heads out of state at times, but most of the push-and-pull comes inside state borders. 

One thing is for sure - Winning can't hurt. Coaches Kirk Ferentz and Matt Campbell would much rather talk about beating the other one sitting down in someone's living room than the other way around. 

Campbell's predecessor, Paul Rhodes, shied away from going against the Hawkeyes on the instate trail. Campbell has welcomed the competition, winning his fair share. In fact, you might say he's gotten the best of them in the 2025 Class. 

Iowa has secured verbal commitments from two (Thomas Meyer, Joey VanWetzinga) of the top three prospects in the Prep Red Zone Rankings, but the Cyclones have No. 1 (Xzavion Robinson) and Nos. 4-6 (Will Tompkins, Alex Manske, Jack Limbaugh). 

Last year, the Hawkeyes held an advantage with their instate haul. It included Central Lyon/George-Little Rock receiver Reece Vander Zee, who caught two touchdowns against Illinois State . 

Iowa has gotten the jump on the Clones in '26 as well. The state's lone D-I commitment, Waterloo West OL Carson Nielsen is Prep Red Zone's No. 3 instate player in the class. 

Honestly, it doesn't seem like the result of the Cy-Hawk games have impacted recruiting a great deal. The Hawkeyes would be cleaning up, having won eight of the last 10 meetings in the series. 

The trend now has ISU doing well in the central part of the state. Iowa is performing well in the east. Out west, Iowa, Iowa State and Nebraska  scrap. 

IMPORTANT STUFF 

Iowa Game Notes

 

Time, Day, TV: 2:30 pm CT, Saturday, CBS

Online/App: cbssports.com/Paramount+

Announcers: Brad Nessler, PBP; Gary Danielson, Color; Jenny Dell, Sideline

Point Spread/Total: Iowa -2.5/35.5

If You're Going: Kinnick Stadium Game Day Info/Guidelines

Opponent Fun Fact: The Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine was founded in 1879 as the country’s first public veterinary school, and has graduated more than 7,500 veterinarians. It is one of only 33 veterinary colleges in the United States.

Iowa State Alumni: Bruce Roth, Henry Wallace, Vine Deloria Jr., Jennifer Jacobs

Bottom Line: These games are tough to handicap because of them being played so early in the season. We don't know how much or little to take out of Iowa and Iowa State's opening week wins. The Hawkeyes look like the better team but the line-makers basically see it as even. They also expect it to be low-scoring, which isn't surprising. I do, too, and am giving the home team a slight edge. If the Cyclones are to win, it will be close. If it's a blowout, it's Iowa.  

Prediction: Iowa 19, Iowa St. 16