Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Kentucky Football

Hawkeyes, Wildcats Meet Up in Music City Bowl New Year's Eve

Fans react during a timeout of the Governor's Cup game between Kentucky and Louisville on Nov. 26, 2022. (Matt Stone/Louisville Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa and Kentucky are running it back in the New Year's Eve Music City Bowl in Nashville. It's a rematch of last year's Citrus Bowl in Orlando. 

It's not often we see Power 5 schools meeting up in back-to-back bowl games. And this one is being frowned upon by college football fans outside of the fan bases, especially by the folks at SB Nation. 

The Music City could test the theory that there are no bad bowl games. With oddsmakers putting the over/under total for the game at 31.5 points, it's being viewed as a defensive battle/offensive struggle. 

The Wildcats prevailed, 20-17, in last season's Citrus as a 3.0-point favorite with a total of 44.0. They possessed the ball for 37 minutes, 54 seconds despite averaging just 2.6 yards on 47 rushing attempts. 

Saturday's matchup is as much about who won't be playing as who is expected to line up. Neither team will have its starting quarterback. 

Iowa's top two players at the position - Spencer Petras (injury) and Alex Padilla (portal) - aren't available, leaving the starting gig for redshirt freshman Joe Labas, who will be playing in his first college game. His backup, true freshman Carson May, also would be seeing his first Hawkeye action if he were to get into the game. 

Kentucky starter Will Levis is sitting out preparing for the NFL Draft, where he could be a first-round pick. Dangerous Wildcat running back Christopher Rodriguez Jr. (5.2 yards per carry) also is passing on the game as is starting Hawkeye strong safety Kaevon Merriweather. 

While Labas looks like the guy for Iowa, the picture isn't as clear for Kentucky. Speculation points to true freshman Destin Wade beginning the game behind center, Kaiya Sheron and former Hawkeye Deuce Hogan also are being mentioned as possibilities. 

Beyond the absence of experienced quarterbacks, the game features two of the country's stingiest defenses. Iowa ranks sixth nationally in scoring defense (14.42 points per game). The Wildcats check in at No. 11 (19.08). 

Kentucky (7-5 overall, 3-5 SEC) has held 15 of its last 16 opponents to 24 points or less. The Hawkeyes limited opponents to 13 or fewer points in nine of 12 games, eight opponents at 10 or fewer points and three at three or fewer points in '22. It is the first time since 1929 that the defense has allowed 10 or fewer points in eight games. 

The Wildcats feature talented freshmen receivers in Barion Brown and Dane Key. The team's top two pass catchers have a combined for 76 receptions for 1,076 yards and 10 touchdowns. Senior receiver Tayvion Robinson, a Virginia Tech transfer, has 35 catches for 470 yards and three scores. 

After Rodriguez Jr., senior Kavosiey Smoke (59 carries, 277 yards, 1 touchdown) and junior JuTahn McClain (49-238-0) are the team's leading rushers. McLain is coming off a 10-carry, 50-yard performance in the regular-season finale against Louisville and has 19 carries for 117 yards and six receptions during the team's final three contests. 

Kentucky's offensive game plan could be interesting. It's without a coordinator after Rich Scangarello was fired in November following one season in Lexington. Former Wildcat OC Liam Coen, who left to become the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator this year, is reportedly coming back to that role in '23. 

On defense, Kentucky is led by do-it-all senior outside linebacker Jordan Wright. It's a committee unit with 15 different guys having at least .5 of a sack and nobody with more than three. Nineteen different Wildcats have a tackle for loss. 

The game likely will see conservative offensive plans with the inexperience behind center and talent on both defenses. Poor weather conditions could cement that strategy for the coaches. 

In addition to being without its top two quarterbacks, the Hawkeyes will be without starting receiver Arland Bruce IV (19-187-1), who entered the transfer portal this month. Fellow receiver Keagan Johnson also is transferring but only appeared in two games in '22. 

Labas was verbally committed to Ball State before Iowa offered him a scholarship later in the '21 recruiting cycle. It represented is lone Power 5 offer. May arrived at Iowa this past summer after choosing the Hawkeyes ahead of offers from Western Michigan and Old Dominion. 

Iowa appears to have shuffled its offensive line since the regular-season finale against Nebraska, according to the latest depth chart released by the school. Redshirt freshman Gennings Ducker is listed as the No. 1 right guard in place of Nick DeJong, who takes over the top spot at right tackle from Jack Plumb. 

The Hawkeye front has been leaky, to say the least, this season. There's a good chance we see rotations up there in this game. 

As it does in most games, Iowa holds an advantage with its specialists. Kicker Drew Stevens and punter Tory Taylor could play important roles on Saturday. 

The Hawkeye formula for winning the last two seasons has centered on dominant defense, strong special teams, and offensive football that limits mistakes and takes advantage of what the other two phases provide. That would seem to be the approach in the Music City. 

Iowa (7-5, 5-4) posted a 5-1 record during the regular season when it didn’t commit a turnover. The lone loss was the 27-14 home setback to No. 4 Michigan on Oct. 1.

TV ANNOUNCERS: Matt Barrie, Louis Riddick and Harry Lyles, Jr. on ABC. 

SERIES: The Hawkeyes are 0-1 all-time against Kentucky, falling 20-17 to the Wildcats in the '22 Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Iowa is 6-6 all-time against opponents from the Southeastern Conference in bowl games.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 3.0-point underdog. As of Monday morning,  the Hawkeyes were bet to a 2.5-point favorite at four of the eight books in the Vegas Inside consensus. The total opened at 31.5 and dropped to 31.0 Monday morning at all of the VI books.

TRENDS

-Kentucky is 13-3-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 17 non-conference games.

-Under is 13-3 in Wildcats' last 16 games overall.

-Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 bowl games.

-Under is 7-0 in Hawkeyes' last 7 non-conference games.

KENTUCKY PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Barion Brown, WR/KR – The Wildcat freshman led the team in receptions (45) and receiving yards (604) while catching four touchdowns in '22. He earned second-team, freshman all-American team honors from The Athletic as a kick returner. In that role, he returned 15 kicks for 424 yards (28.3 YPR) and a score. 

-Jordan Lovett, FS – The College Football News named Lovett as freshman all-American after pacing Kentucky with 59 total tackles (34 solo). He tied for the team lead with two interceptions, and also contributed 1.5 tackles for loss, two pass breakups and a quarterback hurry. 

-Jordan Wright, LB – The Fort Lauderdale, Fla. native chips in all over the Kentucky defense. He ranks second on the unit with 58.0 tackles (29 solo) and leads the squad with 8.5 tackles for loss. He added a sack, an interception, three pass breakups, seven quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Kentucky: Stop Iowa's running game and put pressure on inexperienced quarterback. 

Iowa: Take care of the football on offense then cash in when defense and special teams provides opportunity.

GAME NOTES

-Kentucky is 12-9 all-time in bowl games. The Cats are appearing in a school-record seventh straight bowl. The Cats have won their last four bowl games.

-Kentucky is appearing in the Music City Bowl for the sixth time, the most of any participating schools. The Cats have a 2-3 record in the Music City Bowl, defeating Clemson (2006) and Florida State (2007) and losing to Syracuse (1999), Clemson (2009) and Northwestern (2017).

-The Wildcats have had 41 different offensive and defensive players start at least one game this season, which is 12th most in the nation. New Mexico leads the nation with 50 different starters in 2022.

-This is head coach Mark Stoops’ 10th year as head coach at UK, making him the longest tenured coach in program history. With Kentucky’s win at then-No. 12/19 Florida on Sept. 10, the Iowa alumnus surpassed Paul “Bear” Bryant as the winningest head coach in program history and now has a 66-58 overall record.

-The Wildcats have 40 wins in the last four-plus seasons, which is the fifth most in the SEC and tied for 16th among Power Five programs. They are tied for second in the SEC East with Florida (54) in wins from 2016 - present (54) and only behind Georgia (78).

-The Hawkeyes held eight opponents at 10 or fewer points during the regular season – a first for the program since 1929. Iowa is limiting opponents to 277.9 yards and 14.4 points per game. Nine Hawkeye defenders earned All-Big Ten recognition.

-Iowa linebackers Jack Campbell and Seth Benson have combined for 206 tackles this season. The two All-Big Ten linebackers have combined for 546 tackles in their Hawkeye careers; Campbell is 19th all-time with 295 and Benson is 34th with 251.

-Campbell is the 29th Hawkeye to earn consensus All-America honors and the 13th to be a unanimous consensus first-team All-American. It is the fourth straight year Iowa has had a consensus All-American. Under Kirk Ferentz, 26 players have earned first-team All-America status.

-Hawkeye tight end Sam LaPorta is the second Hawkeye to earn the Kwalick-Clark Big Ten Tight End of the Year Award and he was one of three finalists for the John Mackey Award, which is given to the nation’s top tight end.

-Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson, an honorable mention Freshman All-American and honorable mention All-Big Ten selection, has three 100-yard games this season – the most by a Hawkeye freshman running back in program history. Johnson has a freshman record 762 yards on 142 attempts this season with a team-high six touchdowns to go along with a team-best 1,114 all-purpose yards.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Kentucky – Wes Cowan

Iowa - Kirsten Ulve

HOWE I SEE IT: The extended forecast is calling for rain during the game. That seems appropriate for this one.

It's hard knowing what to expect from these teams. They're without their top quarterbacks on offenses that proved woefully inconsistent for much of '22. 

I think both programs are built on solid foundations with tough student-athletes and a mindset of winning whenever competing. I don't anticipate either side being content with just showing up. 

It will come down to a play or two in the fourth quarter. Whichever team delivers in crunch time will hoist the trophy. 

I'll go with the outfit possessing the most dominant unit. That's Iowa's defense. 

PREDICTION: Iowa 13, Kentucky 10