Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Michigan State

Hawkeyes Welcome Spartans to Kinnick After Dark

Michigan State running back Nathan Carter is tackled by Maryland's Dante Trader Jr. on Sept. 23, 2023, in East Lansing. Mich. (Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa-Michigan State built a nice rivalry during Mark Dantonio's 13-year run as head coach for the latter. It's been fading away since he retired from his post following the 2019 season.

That doesn't mean Saturday night's meeting at Kinnick Stadium (6:30 p.m. CT) lacks for intrigue. The Spartans officially fired their head coach this week. Iowa is coming off a blowout loss at Penn State last weekend. 

Handicapping the matchup is difficult. Will one, both or neither respond through adversity? 

Oddsmakers expect it to be the Hawkeyes. They also see a low-scoring game. Go figure. Iowa ranks 105 out of 130 FBS programs in scoring offense (21.2 points per game). The Spartans check in at No. 92 (23.0 PPG). 

Iowa's average took a hit in a 31-0 beatdown from the Nittany Lions. The Spartans have been outscored by Washington and Maryland, 72-16, the last two weeks in East Lansing. 

Assistant Harlon Barnett is acting as MSU's head coach after Mel Tucker was fired for cause from that role on Wednesday. That dismissal starts a 30-day window for Spartan student-athletes to enter the transfer portal if they want out. 

The scenario can be unsettling. The man who recruited them (Tucker) is gone but their position coaches remain. And Dantonio is serving in an advisory role. 

We'll see what we get from Sparty. There's talent on the roster, to be sure. 

"They've all accepted what it is for what it is and have moved on and are ready to compete," Barnett said of how the Spartans are dealing with the coaching change. "That's why I'm excited about this team. I told them today. I love this team. 

"Guys could have said, I'm shutting it down, I'm done. We haven't had any of that. I said you're all Spartan dogs." 

UConn transfer Nathan Carter supplies MSU with a sound ground threat. He has 369 yards (5.1 Yards Per Carry) and four touchdowns rushing. 

Virginia native Noah Kim is operating as the Spartans' starting quarterback with mixed results to date. He's spread the ball around. Tre Mosley, Montorie Foster Jr. and Maliq Carr are is top targets. 

Second-year sophomore Dillon Tatum leads MSU with 26.0 tackles (14 solo). The defensive back also has two pass-breakups and a quarterback hurry. He's joined by Angelo Grose and others in as talented secondary. 

Zion Young disrupts proceedings in the trenches. The second-year sophomore defensive lineman has 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and four quarterback hurries. Cal Haladay is a productive veteran at linebacker.  

Tyrell Henry is dangerous in the Spartan return game. Jonathan Kim is a reliable place kicker. 

The Hawkeyes are trying to figure it out on offense for the third season in a row. They're hoping Penn State's suffocating defense played a big role in last week's collapse. 

The lack of offensive production again with a new quarterback, Cade McNamara, and other pieces added from the transfer portal this past offseason has fired up the fan base. The volume will increase with a lackluster performance against the Spartans. 

The dynamic of the offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz, being the son of head coach Kirk Ferentz adds to the vitriol. The statistical benchmarks put in his contract this past offseason is a top storyline. 

Kirk Ferentz, the longest tenured head coach in the country, was asked following the Penn State game, again during his weekly press conference on Tuesday and on his radio show a day later what Iowa would be doing to fix the offense. He gave the same answer he as throughout his 24 plus years leading the program. 

"The only stat we’re focused on is winning games," he said. "It’s not all about winning, I know it is for a lot of people, but it’s not all about winning. But that’s what we’re doing each and every time we go out there. If there’s a scoreboard, we’re going try to win. That’s why you work hard for nine months.

"So that’s the stat that we look at. Every game, every situation, what’s going to give us our best chance to win. And those are decisions we’ll continue to try to make as we go along."

TV ANNOUNCERS: Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge and Kathryn Tappen on NBC.

SERIES: Saturday’s game is the 49th in the all-time series that began with a 21-7 Michigan State win in 1953. That first meeting, played in Iowa City on Sept. 26, 1953, marked MSU’s first game as a member of the Big Ten Conference. 

Iowa leads the all-time series 24-22-2, including a 49-7 win in the most recent meeting ('20). Michigan State has won three of the last four and four of the last six meetings in the series. Iowa is 14-10-1 at home against the Spartans..

BETTING LINES: Iowa was a 12.5-point favorite at Bet Rivers on Wednesday evening. The total sat at 36.5. The Hawkeyes were -480 and Michigan State +350 to win.

TRENDS

-The total has gone Under in four of Michigan State's last five games.

-The Spartans are 4-10-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in their last 15 games against Iowa.

-The total has gone Under in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games.

-The Hawkeyes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

MICHIGAN STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Nathan Carter, RB - The sophomore ranks fourth in the Big Ten and 24th in the FBS averaging 92.3 rushing yards per game. Carter is also tied for sixth in the conference and 32nd in the FBS with four rushing touchdowns. He became the first Spartan since Jehuu Caulcrick in 2007 to score three touchdowns in a single quarter after running for three scores (2 yards, 44 yards, 6 yards) in the third quarter of the 45- 14 win over Richmond in Week 2.

-Cal Haladay, LB - Haladay led the Big Ten in tackles per game last season (10.0 pg; 120 total), ranks third on the team with 25 tackles through four games in 2023. Haladay has collected 241 tackles in his 33-game career, including 27 starting assignments. He was named to preseason watch lists for the Butkus Award, the Bednarik Award and the Nagurski Trophy.

-J.D. Duplain, OL - Duplain has started consecutive games at left guard, and the four-year letterwinner has a started a total of 39 games in his career while playing in 46 overall. He has earned honorable mention All-Big Ten accolades the past two seasons. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Michigan State: The Spartans would benefit from possessing the ball as much as possible and by not turning the ball over. 

Iowa: Establish the running game and create turnovers on defense. 

GAME NOTES

-Michigan State has 40 new players on its 2023 roster, including the addition of 18 transfers. 

-This season marks the 100th anniversary of Spartan Stadium, which hosted its first game on Oct. 6, 1923. 

-Michigan State is one of 33 programs in the FBS to win more than 700 games. The Spartans currently rank No. 27 all-time with 728 victories (all-time record: 728-481-44, .599). Michigan State is in its 127th season of football in 2023.

-Among the nine inductees for the 2023 MSU Athletics Hall of Fame Class, two are football players: Al Dorow and Javon Ringer.

-Two Spartan freshmen – linebacker Jordan Hall and cornerback Chance Rucker – started their first career games last Saturday against Maryland. A consensus four-star recruit and top-100 player by Rivals, Hall was the first-ever three-time captain at IMG Academy. He has 13 tackles and three tackles for loss in his fi rst four games. Rucker has also played in the fi rst four games of the season and has seven tackles. He played a career-high 66 snaps against Maryland, tying for the most on the defense, while Hall played a career-high 48 snaps.

-For a second straight year, the Hawkeyes will host a night game inside Kinnick Stadium. It will be the 22nd home night game in program history, dating back to 1992. Iowa has won eight of its last 11 night games in Kinnick since 2015. The program is 14-7 in home night games all-time.

-The Hawkeyes have two interceptions through four weeks of the season, including Sebastian Castro’s 30-yard pick-six in the road win at Iowa State. The interception return for a touchdown extended Iowa’s streak to 16 consecutive seasons (and 21 of the last 23 years). It is the second-longest active streak nationally.

-The Hawkeyes are 1-0 this season and 7-1 dating back to the start of the 2022 season when not committing a turnover. The team is 8-1 in the same span when winning the turnover battle.

-After losing an appeal over his year-long suspension, sixth-year senior DL Noah Shannon will transition into a coaching position as a student assistant on the Iowa coaching staff. This move will allow Shannon to travel with the team on road trips and continue in his leadership position on the 2023 roster.

-Iowa’s kickoff return unit ranks third in the Big Ten and sixth nationally, averaging 30 yards per return this season. Junior Kaden Wetjen, who had 88 yards on three returns against Western Michigan in Week 3, has a 25.8 return average. Sophomore Kaleb Johnson is averaging 38.5 yards on two returns, including a 54-yard return on the opening kickoff of the 2023 season.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Michigan State - Dorothy DeLay

Iowa - Jeannette Eyerly

HOWE I SEE IT: This should be a get-right game for the Hawkeyes after being smashed last week. Credit Michigan State for hanging together despite adversity but they haven't been competitive the last two games and hit the road for the first time in '23. 

The Spartans are turning the ball over, which is not a good practice against Iowa's hungry defense. Their defense is wearing down like the Hawkeye defense did at Penn State. 

Iowa is the better team here. It's home at night. It would have to play like it did against Nebraska last November to drop this one. And even them, MSU would have to equal the Huskers' performance from Black Friday. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 23, MSU 10