Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Minnesota

Hawkeyes Welcome Golden Gophers to Kinnick Stadium Saturday

Minnesota's Gopher mascot dances before a game against Iowa on Nov. 13, 2021 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - PJ Fleck doesn't need to be reminded that his Minnesota teams are winless against rival Iowa in six tries. People bring it up anyway, despite him being keenly aware of that and that the Hawkeyes are the only Big Ten West team the Gophers haven't beaten in that time. 

It came up again Monday at his weekly press conference. As he always has publicly, Fleck praised Iowa with a smile on his face and a competitive firing burning him up inside. 

The Hawkeyes welcome Minnesota into Kinnick Stadium Saturday (2:30 p.m. CT) in a renewal of their long-running rivalry for the Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy. The Gophers will be trying to end a 10-game skid at the historic venue, last winning there in 1999. 

"It means a lot to our fan base, it means a lot to our players, it means a lot to our state as it does for Iowa," Fleck said this week. "We have our work cut out for us. We know how good they are." 

Iowa comes into this Big Ten West matchup in control of the division. Win out, and the Hawkeyes will play in the conference championship game. They'll be favored in all five games. 

The Gophers arrive here off of a bye week. They're 3-3 overall, 1-2 in the Big Ten and, like Iowa, control their own destiny. They have a game remaining at No. 3 Ohio State. 

Early wagers landed on Minnesota, the line moving three points. It resulted from a lack of faith in the Hawkeye offense, which, you may have heard, has not been good. 

Fleck isn't buying it. He's well aware of how Iowa has won 15 of its last 22 Big Ten games. 

"When we're talking about complementary football, a lot of people think you're really good on offense, defense and special teams. It's not being good at one or the other, it's about how you go win games based on your formula to win games. And I don't think there's a team that does it better than Iowa," he said. 

The Hawkeye defense is good and getting better. It ranks 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 14.9 points per game. Minnesota is ranked 109 in scoring offense but is 41st in rushing. 

The Gophers sit at 74th in scoring defense after Michigan put a 52-piece on them two weeks ago at Huntington Bank Stadium. Iowa's punchless offense is 112th in scoring and last in yards gained per game. 

Minnesota kicker Dragan Kesich is 10 of 11 on field-goal tries, making two of three attempts from beyond 50 yards. Iowa's Drew Stevens is 12 of 15 overall, drilling his only 50+ try. 

Hawkeye senior Tory Taylor will be the best punter in the game. He's averaging 48.3 yards per attempt with 19 punts traveling 50 or more yards and 17 of them pinning opponents inside their 20 yard line. Minnesota's Mark Crawford averages 43.3 yards a kick with six of them putting the opposition inside its 20. 

With how these teams are built, the hidden yardage in special teams and beyond could prove to be important. Keep an eye on the Hawkeyes' 10th-ranked kick return unit matching up against a Minnesota squad at ranked 128th in coverage. 

The Gophers' 130th-ranked kick return team faces the No. 40 Iowa coverage team. Minnesota's 32nd-ranked punt coverage team will try to corral dangerous Hawkeye return man, Cooper DeJean. 

"Their special teams are a huge factor in how they win. I mean, a huge factor," Fleck said. "Their special teams doesn't get enough credit. And their defense is one of the best defenses in the country, consistently. So, they have a formula and they do it really well." 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Paul Burmeister, Anthony Herron and Zora Stephenson on NBC. 

SERIES: It will be the 117th meeting between Iowa and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have won eight straight and 18 of the last 22 in the series. During the eight-game winning streak, five games have been decided by a touchdown or less. 

• The Gophers lead the all-time series, 62-52-2. Iowa has won 10 consecutive at home against the Gophers. Minnesota’s last win in the series came in '14 and its last win in Iowa City came in 1999. 

Minnesota is only school that Kirk Ferentz has squared off off against every season during his Hawkeye tenure as both an assistant coach (1981-89) and head coach (1999-pres.).

BETTING LINES: Iowa showed up as a 3.5-point favorite at Bet Rivers on Wednesday evening. The total sat at 31.5. The Hawkeyes were -165 and Minnesota was +135 to win.

TRENDS

-Minnesota is 1-6 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last seven games.

-The total has gone Under in six of the Gophers' last nine games against an opponent from the B1G West.

-Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games.

-The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Iowa's last 14 games against Minnesota.

MINNESOTA PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Tyler Nubin, S - Nubin earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in '23. This season, the fifth-year senior has 27 tackles, three interceptions and a pass breakup. His defensive grade of 82.2 from PFF leads the Gophers, is ninth in the Big Ten overall. With 11 career interceptions, he needs one more to tie the Gopher school record.

-Daniel Jackson, WR - The team's top receiver last year, Jackson leads the Gophers in targets per game (7.2), receptions (22), receiving yards per game (47.7) and touchdown catches (5). He's also the team leader in yards after catch (81) and YAC per game (13.5) and is second in yards per catch (13.0).

-Justin Walley, CB - Walley has 21 tackles this year, is tied for the team-lead with four pass breakups and he has a forced fumble. His tackling grade from PFF of 81.5 leads Minnesota and is fifth among Big Ten cornerbacks, while his run defense grade of 82.3 is best on the team and 14th among Big Ten defenders.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Minnesota: The Gopher defense needs to create turnovers to help its offense.

Iowa: The Hawkeye defense needs to create turnovers to help its offense.

GAME NOTES

-With Tanner Morgan departing the program after six seasons, redshirt sophomore Athan Kaliakmanis is the starting quarterback for Minnesota. In six games this year, Kaliakmanis has completed 76-of-136 passes for 797 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions. 

-True freshman running back Darius Taylor missed the Gophers' last two contests. Despite that absence and receiving just one carry for three yards in the season opener, Taylor has rushed 87 times for 532 yards (6.11 per carry) and four touchdowns. He's also caught six passes for 56 yards. 

-Through six games, the Gophers have forced three fumbles (recovered two of them), and recorded eight interceptions. The 10 turnovers recorded ranks tied for 47th nationally and tied for sixth in the Big Ten.

-Minnesota is averaging 3.00 penalties and 29.50 penalty yards per game. The penalties per game are second in the Big Ten and third in the FBS, while the yards per game are third in the league and sixth across the country.

-Minnesota has been on the end of an unlucky and unlikely streak as opponents have made 25 consecutive field goals dating to last season. That includes all 18 attempts in 2022 and all seven this year.

-The Hawkeyes are 2-0 in trophy games in '23, winning the Cy-Hawk Trophy and Heartland Trophy in victories over Iowa State and Wisconsin. Iowa will play a second straight trophy game on Saturday, battling Minnesota for the Floyd of Rosedale. The Hawkeyes are 26-8 in their last 34 rivalry trophy games

-Leading into Saturday’s game against Minnesota, Floyd of Rosedale has resided in Iowa City for 2,898 consecutive days.

-Iowa won its sixth game of the season on Oct. 14 in Madison to become bowl eligible for the 22nd time in the last 23 seasons under head coach Kirk Ferentz. 

-The Hawkeyes have allowed 14 or fewer points in 13 of their last 20 games and the defense has held seven teams without a touchdown since the start of the 2022 season. The unit has allowed one touchdown or less in five of the first seven games of 2023 and in 14 of the last 20 games.

-Iowa finished with a 37 passing yards in the road win at Wisconsin, the fewest for the program since passing for 28 yards in a 10-7 home victory over Nebraska in 1981.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Minnesota - Michele Norris

Iowa - Kirsten Ulve

HOWE I SEE IT: The Gophers have fielded sound teams through Fleck's run in Minneapolis. This '23 edition has not resembled them. 

Maybe Minnesota fixed a lot of shortcomings during the bye week. You can bet it will roll out some surprises for the Hawkeyes. 

The Gophers are talented enough to win this game if they play clean football and get some help from Iowa. That's certainly in play here. 

In the end, the Hawkeyes defense already is stingy and getting better, and the special teams are special. The offense will allow those phases to cook. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 20, Minnesota 10