Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Minnesota Football

A Lot of Line for This Year's Floyd of Rosedale Battle

Minnesota's Gopher mascot dances before a game against Iowa on Nov. 13, 2021 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - PJ Fleck has accomplished a lot during his five-plus seasons coaching Minnesota. His .603 winning percentage coming into the year ranked third among Golden Gopher coaches with at least 45 games under their belts. 

One thing he's not been able to pull off is defeating rival Iowa. He's downed every other team in the Big Ten West Division during his time in Minneapolis. The last time the Hawkeyes played at Minnesota, some saltiness occurred at the end of the game. 

The teams renew their border rivalry Saturday (3 p.m. CT, FOX) at Huntington Bank Stadium. Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz is 17-6 against Minnesota, including winning the last seven in the series. 

"I have a ton of respect for Kirk and what he's been able to build over there, (defensive) coach (Phil) Parker and the cultural sustainability they've had," Fleck said Monday. "But this is why you play at Minnesota. This is why you go Illinois. This is why you go to Wisconsin. This is why you go to the Big Ten. This is why you have those rivalry games. 

"You know, FOX, 3 p.m., this is what it's all about." 

The Gophers and Iowa come into Saturday tied with Illinois and Purdue atop the West Division at 4-3 in conference play. Minnesota and the Hawkeyes are riding three-game winning streaks. 

"The two teams have gotten better as the season has gone on," Fleck said. "The defensive part of that, I'm sure it will be on display, some how some way, on Saturday." 

The Gophers rank third among Big Ten teams in scoring defense, allowing just 13.1 points per game. Iowa is fourth (13.9 PPG). The Hawkeyes are third in rushing defense (88.6 yards per game), while Minnesota is fourth (106.8 YPG). 

It was unknown at publishing time for this piece if the Gophers would have the services of veteran quarterback Tanner Morgan, who was knocked out of the game against Nebraska two weeks ago. Redshirt freshman Athan Kaliakmanis started in his place during a 31-3 win against Northwestern Saturday. 

It's senior day for Minnesota, who will honor a class that includes Morgan and all-American running back Mohamed Ibrahim. The latter ranks second in the Big Ten with 140.1 rushing yards per game. His 18 ground scores lead the league. 

"He's a very talented back," Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell said. "His cutting ability, getting downhill, physical style of running, kind of sets him apart from a lot of other guys." 

Said fellow Hawkeye linebacker Jay Higgins: "They like him a lot. He's going to get a lot of touches. Like any offense in the Big Ten, they're going to try to run the ball. We have to stop it. We've seen our share of good backs in the Big Ten and trying to hold them under their numbers and not allowing them to rush the ball all over the place." 

Ibrahim will face his toughest defensive challenge to date against Iowa. . 

"They never beat themselves," Fleck said of the Hawkeyes on that side of the ball. "They're in the right place, right time, all the time. It's a credit to what they do and what they've done for a long time. 

"You know where they're going to be. You know what they're going to run. They just do it better than everybody else." 

Trey Potts gives the Gophers a second productive running back. He averages 48.0 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. They lean on the run, having rushed the ball 461 times this season compared to 221 passes. 

Minnesota lost top receiver Chris Autman-Bell to a leg injury back in September. Tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford leads the team 31 catches and 374 receiving yards. Receivers Daniel Jackson and Michael Brown-Stephens each have more than 300 receiving yards this season. 

Senior linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin paces the Gophers with 69 tackles, 14th most in the conference. Danny Striggow leads them with 3.5 sacks, but he missed last week's game with an arm injury. Safety Tyler Nubin has a team-high four interceptions and ranks second in tackles (47.0). 

"They're aggressive and they play their stuff pretty well," Iowa receiver Diante Vines said. "They know what they do, and they do their strong suits to the best of their abilities. We just have to do our job, like we've been preaching, and take advantage of the plays that we do have. If we have a big-play opportunity, we have to make sure we make those big plays." 

Minnesota kicker Matthew Trickett is 11 for 12 on field-goal tries this season with a long of 49 yards. He's 8 of 8 from beyond 30-yards, including 5 of 5 from 40 or more. Punter Mark Crawford is averaging 40.1 yards per attempt with 12 of 33 punts being downed inside the opponent 20 yard line and 16 fair catches. 

The Gophers rank fourth nationally in punt coverage, allowing just three yards on six returns. They're 80th in kick coverage, yielding 20.5 yards per return. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Tim Brando and Spencer Tillman  on FOX. 

SERIES: Saturday will be the 116th meeting between Iowa and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have won seven straight and 17 of the last 21 in the series. 

During the seven-game winning streak, five games have been decided by a touchdown or less. 

The Gophers lead the all-time series, 62-51-2. Iowa is 32-26-1 in games played in Minneapolis. 

Iowa has won 10 straight at home and three straight on the road against the Gophers. Minnesota’s last win in the series came in 2014 – a 51-14 win in Minneapolis.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 3.0-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday night. It dropped to the Golden Gophers -2.5 Monday afternoon. The total opened at 32.5 and remained there on Monday afternoon.

TRENDS

-Minnesota is 7-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 8 home games.

-Under is 6-1-1 in Golden Gophers' last 8 conference games.

-Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall.

-Under is 8-3 in Hawkeyes' last 11 games overall.

MINNESOTA PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Mohamed Ibrahim, RB – Ibrahim is 15 rushing attempts away from 800 for his career, the fourth Gopher to reach that number. u If Ibrahim gets to 100 yards rushing Saturday, it would be his 24th 100-yard game, breaking a tie with Darrell Thompson for most in school history. u Ibrahim is 27 all-purpose yards away from matching Marion Barber III (4,495) for fourth in program history.

-Mariano Sori-Marin, LB – On the preseason watch list for the 2022 Butkus Award, Sori-Marin has at least three tackles in every game this year, including a season-high 15 at Penn State on Oct. 17, and at least five tackles in nine contests. The game at Penn State was Sori-Marin's fifth career game of at least 10 tackles and his second of at least 15. He had a career-high 18 stops at Nebraska in 2020.

-John Michael Schmitz , C – Schmitz, a preseason All-American and nominee for the Lombardi Award, Outland Trophy and Rimington Award, returned to anchor this year's O-Line unit. The sixth-year senior has started a unit-high 33 games in his career and was Pro Football Focus' highest-graded returning center in the country.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Minnesota: Control the ball on offense without turning it over. 

Iowa: Lean on defense and special teams with the offense not hurting the other two phases. 

GAME NOTES

-Minnesota has one Iowa native on its roster in junior TE Frank Bierman, who hails from Tipton and attended Iowa Western CC for two seasons.

-Hawkeyes wide receiver Arland Bruce IV is the son of former Gophers wideout Arland Bruce III, who played at Minnesota during the 1998-99 seasons.

-Minnesota and Iowa have played four common opponents this year in Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern and Purdue. The Hawkeyes have gone 3-1 in those games with the lone loss coming to the Illini, while the Gophers are 2-2 with wins over the Scarlet Knights and Wildcats.

-Minnesota has been one of the top teams in the country this year, on both sides of the ball, on 3rd downs. The offense leads the country in conversion percentage, while the defense is second best in opponent conversion rate.

-Minnesota has 146 plays from scrimmage this year that have gained at least 10 yards. Of those plays, 71 have been rushes of 10+ yards, tied for 12th most in the country.

-The Hawkeyes have won seven straight and 17 of the last 21 meetings against Minnesota. The last time Floyd of Rosedale hasn’t resided in Iowa City for the winter came in 2014 following a 51-14 Golden Gopher win.

-Iowa’s defense has held seven opponents to 10 points or less this season, including three with three or fewer points. It is the first time since 1991 that the defense has held seven opponents under 10 points. That team finished 10-1-1 and played in the Holiday Bowl.

-The Hawkeyes have won both of their November games this season and the team has won 13 consecutive games in the month of Thanksgiving dating back to the 2019 season.

-Iowa’s defense has scored 28 points via four touchdowns – second-most nationally — and two safeties in 2022. Iowa’s 3.8 yards per play are the best in FBS since Alabama in 2011.

-Hawkeye TE Sam LaPorta has had at least one reception in 13 straight games and has been Iowa’s top receiver in nine of 10 games in 2022. LaPorta has a team-best 49 receptions for 506 yards and one touchdown. He is leading the Big Ten in receptions and receiving yards this season among tight ends.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Minnesota – Harry Reasoner

Iowa - Torrey Peters

HOWE I SEE IT: The teams come into this game each riding a three-game winning streak. A look inside those streaks reveals Iowa's run is more impressive. 

The Hawkeyes have topped Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin, teams with a combined 8-13 conference record. The Gophers knocked off Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern, who are 4-17 in the league. 

Iowa has split its games with fellow division leaders, Illinois and Purdue. Minnesota is 0-2 against those programs. 

All of this is to say, Iowa is the better team. If this game were being played at Kinnick, I think the Hawkeyes win handily. That it's on the road gives me pause. 

In the end, I'm riding with a Hawkeye defense that will feast on a one-dimensional offense like Minnesota's in honor of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. 

PREDICTION: Iowa 17, Minnesota 10