Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Nebraska Football

West Champion Hawkeyes Head to Lincoln with Huskers Needing Win to Go Bowling

Players from Iowa (right) and Nebraska line up for a field goal attempt by the Huskers on Nov. 25, 2022 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - When Nebraska joined the Big Ten ahead of the 2011 season, the conference matched it up with bordering Iowa as a potential rival. The schools agreed to playing every year on the last Friday of the regular season. The league hoped the the friction would grow. 

It happened but not because this game has impacted the standings. The fan bases disliking each other did the trick. 

We almost got a winner-take-all meeting this coming Friday in Lincoln (11 a.m., CBS). It would be for the West Division title (most likely) had the Hawkeyes lost and Nebraska won last Saturday. Alas, the opposite went down. 

Iowa clinched the West with a 15-13 victory against Illinois. The Huskers dropped a 24-17, overtime decision at Wisconsin. 

So, like last year, one team tries to spoil the other's postseason hopes. This time, a Hawkeye victory ends Nebraska's campaign a win short of its first bowl game since '16. It would go down a year after a Husker upset at Kinnick Stadium kept Iowa out of the Big Ten Championship Game. 

The odds of future meetings in this series impacting the conference title game will be a lot longer moving forward. Beginning next season, divisions go away and the top two teams overall play for the trophy. The four teams from the PAC-12 joining in '24 adds to the difficulty of it happening. 

Of course, the animosity the fans have for the other team should guarantee there's plenty of interest around here. Who knows, maybe the team's will be competing for a spot in the expanding college football playoff. That would contribute more juice to this shindig. 

The Hawkeyes returning the favor from last November on Friday is the outcome that would add the most fuel to the rivalry fire. That way somebody leaves the stadium pissed off. 

It will be interesting to see how the Hawkeyes approach this game, no matter what they tell us publicly. It would be prudent to rest guys who are hurt and banged up. They'll need all hands on deck against either Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten title tilt, when they'll be a decided underdog. 

That said, Iowa wants to recapture the Heroes Trophy. And letting up at all goes against the fabric of the Iowa program. And it's Nebraska. 

No matter how that all shakes out, this game sets up as a defensive struggle, which Hawkeye fans are accustomed to. Iowa ranks third nationally in points allowed per game (12.36), while the Huskers check in 19th (18.73). 

On the flip side, the Hawkeyes rate 121 out of 130 FBS programs in scoring offense (18.5 PPG). Nebraska sits only three spots ahead of them at 18.7 PPG. 

The Iowa special teams, led by punter Tory Taylor (48.2 YPP), usually holds an edge over opponents. His Husker counterpart, Brian Buschini, is averaging 40.8 per punt, which ranks 70th in the country. 

Nebraska's freshman kicker, Tristan Alvano, is 104th nationally in field-goal percentage, having missed five of 13 attempts. Hawkeye sophomore Drew Stevens is 72nd (17 of 23, .739). He's missed one in each of the last three games, but two were from 53 yards out and the other came from 47. 

The Husker are on their third starting quarterback. Chubba Purdy, the younger brother of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, will make his second start on Friday. 

The sophomore completed 15 of 23 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown against one interception. He added 105 yards and a score on the ground.

Expect Iowa to work on containing Purdy in the pocket. They'll push it but will emphasize keeping him in there ahead of getting sacks. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, Tiffany Blackmon on CBS. 

SERIES: Friday’s game is the 54th meeting in the all-time series with Nebraska holding a 30-20-3 advantage. The series began with a 22-0 Iowa victory in 1891. The Hawkeyes have won seven of the last eight and eight of the last 10 meetings. The last five meetings have all been decided by seven points or less. 

The Hawkeyes have won the last five meetings in Lincoln, but the Huskers lead 15-7-1 all-time in games played in Lincoln. Iowa’s 38-17 win in 2013 was its first win at Nebraska since 1943. The first 10 games in the series were played in either Omaha (eight games) or Council Bluffs (two games). The series was even at 4-4-2 in those 10 meetings.

BETTING LINES: Iowa stood as a 1.5-point underdog at Bet Rivers on Tuesday night. The total sat at an incredible 26.5. The Hawkeyes were +105 and Nebraska was -124 to win.

TRENDS

-Iowa is 1-4 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 5 games against Nebraska.

-The total has gone Under in 5 of the Hawkeyes' last 5 games on the road.

-The total has gone Over in 6 of Nebraska's last 7 games against Iowa.

-Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.

NEBRASKA PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Luke Reimer, LB- Reimer was Nebraska's leading tackler in both 2021 and 2022, recording 194 tackles in 22 games in those seasons. He has amassed 283 tackles with 8.0 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss in his career. Reimer has 38 tackles in eight games this season, while missing two games (Michigan, Illinois) because of injury. With 283 career tackles, Reimer is fourth in career tackles among Big Ten players, trailing only Iowa's Nick Jackson, Michigan State's Cal Halady and Northwestern's Bryce Gallagher.

-Isaac Gifford, S - Gifford leads the Huskers with 75 tackles, including 6.5 tackles for loss. The Lincoln native is among the Big Ten leaders in pass breakups (10th) and passes defended per game (15th). Gifford's 75 tackles this season mark the first time a Nebraska defensive back has totaled 75 or more tackles since safety Nathan Gerry had 79 in 13 games in 2015.

-Nash Hutmacher, NT - Hutmacher has recorded 36 tackles, including four sacks and a team-high 7.5 tackles for loss. His 7.5 tackles for loss are second among Big Ten interior defensive linemen. The South Dakota native had a career-high seven tackles, including 2.5 sacks, against Northwestern.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Nebraska: Like Iowa, the Huskers need their defense to help the offense. If they can turn over the visitors, that would be beneficial. 

Iowa: Remember how it felt losing this game last season. Then go play clean football and pounce on Nebraska mistakes. 

GAME NOTES

-Friday's game marks Nebraska's 34th consecutive season playing on Black Friday. That streak includes games against Oklahoma (1990-95), Colorado (1996-2010) and Iowa (2011-23).

-Nine of Nebraska’s 10 full-time assistant coaches are in their first season on the Husker sideline in 2023, with offensive line coach Donovan Raiola, in his second season at Nebraska. Including Head Coach Matt Rhule, nine of 11 full-time coaches have experience at both the college and NFL levels.

-Nebraska has held eight opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, including five to less than 60 yards–Minnesota (55 yards), Colorado (58), Northern Illinois (26), Louisiana Tech (46), and Illinois (21). Only Michigan, Maryland and Wisconsin have surpassed the century mark.

-Nebraska has 31 sacks, including season-high totals of eight at Colorado and against Northwestern. The 2.82 sacks per game ranks third in the Big Ten and 17th nationally. This marks Nebraska's first season with 30 team sacks since 2013.

-Nebraska ranks as one of just 10 teams in the nation to rank in the top 30 nationally in both rushing offense and rushing defense. Nebraska is the only Big Ten team in the group.

-The Hawkeyes’ rushing defense has allowed just two rushing touchdowns in 2023, which are the fewest in the nation. The Hawkeyes are the only team nationally to surrender two rushing touchdowns.

-Iowa has won 17 of its last 18 games in the month of November, dating back to 2019. The lone setback came in last season's regular-season finale against the Huskers. 

-Iowa’s defense ranks third nationally, giving up 12.4 points per game. The Hawkeyes have allowed two touchdowns over their last 20 quarters, four touchdowns over the past 28 periods and 12 total touchdowns in 2023.

-Since the start of the 2015 season, Iowa is 70-2 when leading by eight points at any point in a game.

-In their first game without all-everything DB Cooper DeJean’s season-ending injury, the Hawkeye defense finished with a season-high 13 pass breakups against Illinois, the most PBUs by Iowa since amassing 14 in a win over Indiana in 2002. Seven different Hawkeyes had at least one pass breakup against an Illini offense that threw the ball 47 times. Junior DB Jermari Harris had a career-high eight tackles and four pass breakups in the game - the most since Quinn Schulte in 2022 against South Dakota State.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Nebraska - Gladys Dick 

Iowa - Clair Cameron Patterson 

HOWE I SEE IT: Former Nebraska coach Scott Frost couldn't figure out how to build a defense. First-year coach Matt Rhule's offense has left a lot to be desired. 

That means another low-scoring Hawkeye game, in all likelihood. You may have heard, Iowa is good in those games. 

When a team plays this way, it leaves itself open to being upset, which we saw against Minnesota. This game is on the road against an outfit needing a win for bowl eligibility. All of the pressure rests on the Huskers. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 10, Nebraska 9