Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Ohio State

Hawkeyes Head to The Shoe Following Bye Week

Oct 8, 2022; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball in the third quarter of the NCAA Division I football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. (Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa Football relishes the underdog role. As a result, it should be sky high this week. 

The Hawkeyes (3-3 overall, 1-2 Big Ten) are off to Columbus to take on No. 2-ranked and unbeaten Ohio State. As of the writing of this preview, they're 29-point underdogs. The last time they were that big of a long shot came against Nebraska in 2000, when the Huskers were favored by 41.5. 

For reference, the Buckeyes were favored by 18.0 points when they played at Kinnick Stadium in '17. Iowa stunned them, 55-24. That was the last time the teams played. 

"We're a blue-collar program," Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins said Tuesday. "So we're going to go out there and give it our all. You're not going to see any quit out of us. We're going in there to win a game. We're not just going to roll over and give it them." 

Gambling lines represent just one measurement when comparing programs. Most coaches and players view the matchup through a different lens, namely what they see on film. The Hawkeyes must break it down, construct a creative game plan and then execute it. 

"It's a lot different than going against South Dakota State," Iowa cornerback Riley Moss said Tuesday. "They a lot bigger. They're a lot faster. So it will be a good challenge for us." 

Ohio State paces the Big Ten in scoring with 48.8 points per game. The Hawkeyes rank last (14.7). Iowa's defense holds opponents to the second fewest amount of points (9.8) in the conference, while the Buckeyes check in fifth (15.7). 

"They're very good," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Tuesday of the Hawkeyes' defense. "We've been working hard and trying to figure out how to attack them, but they're very good in what they do. Just the minute you think they're not going to change it up, they do, and are very well coached. 

"So, there's a reason they're ranked so high year in and year out. They're one of the better defenses in the country. They do a great job, so this will certainly be a challenge for the offense." 

Said Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson: "They don't flash, but they have better players than people give them credit for. They always have a handful of guys who are tremendous on the perimeter. They've had great linebackers. Strong up front. We'll have our hands full blocking them. We'll have our hands full trying to get balance and get the run game going. It's going to be a great test." 

Heisman favorite CJ Stroud quarterbacks the Ohio State offense, which averages 543.7 yards per contest. He sports an eye-popping 207.6 quarterback rating with 24 touchdowns passes and just three interceptions.

Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. rank among the Top 4 receivers in the league from a statistical standpoint, combining for almost 200 receiving yards per game. Running Backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson average 7.8 and 6.3 yards per rush, respectively. Preseason all-American receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected back from injury this week. 

"I think it's the same thing as Michigan," Iowa safety Kaevon Merriweather said Tuesday. "When you have an all-around, solid offense, you can't really just focus or lock in on one part. You have to be locked in on everything." 

Mike Hall Jr. has emerged on the Buckeyes' defensive line this season. His 1.50 tackles for loss per game put him in a first-place tie with Michigan State's Jacoby Windmon for the Big Ten lead. Hall Jr.'s .90 sacks per contest paced the conference.

Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg averages an Ohio State-best 8.3 tackles per game with 2.5 sacks, a pass breakup, 3.0 quarterback hurries and 6.0 tackles for loss. Fellow linebacker Steele Chambers averages more than 5.0 stops per game with 4.0 tackles for loss, a sack, an interception, a pass breakup and a quarterback hurry.  

Cornerback Denzel Burke leads the Buckeyes with four pass breakups. Cornerback Jyaire Brown and safety Josh Proctor have two apiece. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft on FOX.

SERIES: Saturday’s game is the 65th all-time meeting in a series that began in 1922. Ohio State leads the all-time series, 46-15-3, and the Buckeyes have won 13 of the last 15 contests. 

Iowa won the most recent meeting, 55-24, in 2017 in Kinnick Stadium. This is Iowa’s first trip to Columbus since 2013. The Hawkeyes’ last win in Columbus came in 1991 (16-9).

Ohio State has been ranked in the top 10 in each of the last six meetings. This is the first time Iowa has faced Buckeye head coach Ryan Day.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 21.0-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday night. It rose to the Hawkeyes +29.0 by Monday morning. The total opened at 48.5 and move to 49.0 by Monday morning.

TRENDS

-Iowa is 3-0-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 4 road games.

-Under is 6-1 in Hawkeyes' last 7 games overall.

-Ohio State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall.

-Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes' last 4 games overall.

OHIO STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

-CJ Stroud, QB – The current Heisman Trophy betting favorite comes into this week's action completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,737 yards and 24 touchdowns against just three interceptions. 

-TreVeyon Henderson/Miyan Williams, RBs – The Buckeyes' 1-2 backfield punch has combined for 933 ground yards with 12 touchdowns. Both have averaged more than 6.0 yards per carry. 

-Emeka Egbuka/Marvin Harrison Jr., WRs – Egbuka and Harrison Jr. have helped Ohio State absorb the injury loss of preseason all-American Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They've combined for 66 receptions for 1,191 yards and 15 touchdowns. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Ohio State: Avoid helping Iowa's offense with turnovers and run the ball effectively.

Iowa: A predictable offensive game plan will result in an embarrassing loss. Creativity with execution is the only path to victory here. 

GAME NOTES

-Ohio State hasn’t lost a Big Ten Conference game at Ohio Stadium since 2015 (Michigan State; 17-14). The Buckeyes have since won a Big Ten record 27 consecutive conference games at home.

-The 55 points Iowa scored against Ohio State in the last meeting between the teams was a 23-year high against the Buckeyes, or since Penn State, Ohio State’s opponent next week, scored 63 in 1994.

-Ohio State and No. 1 Georgia are the only programs Top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense. Both schools, in fact, are in the Top 5. Ohio State is 2nd in offense (543.7) and 5th in defense (253.5).

-Ohio State has 44 plays of 20 or more yards this season. Twenty four of those 44 plays have gone for 30+ yards, tops in the country (with Tennessee).

-Since Ryan Day’s arrival on staff in 2017, Ohio State has never finished lower than 11th nationally in yards per play.

-The Hawkeye defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in five of the team’s first six games – a first for the program since 1933. Iowa has allowed 59 points in its first six games, the fewest for the program since 1956 (57 points).

-The Hawkeyes are third nationally in scoring defense (9.8). Iowa is also second in passing efficiency defense (97.20), third in passing yards allowed (154.0), seventh in total defense (265.0) and 13th in red zone defense (.733).

-Iowa is one of the least penalized teams in the nation, ranking ninth in fewest penalty yards (241), 15th in fewest penalties (30), 16th in fewest penalty yards per game (40.17) and 20th in fewest penalties per game (5.00).

-Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson is fourth in the Big Ten in kickoff returns, averaging 25.5 yards per return. The Ohio native is second on the team in rushing with 232 yards and a team-high three touchdowns.

-Hawkeye LB Jack Campbell is second in the Big Ten and 10th nationally, averaging 10.3 tackles per game. The Cedar Falls, Iowa, native has 23 tackles in the last two games and has 10+ tackles in four games this season. Both Campbell and LB Seth Benson rank in the top five in the Big Ten in tackles.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Ohio State – Reuben Klamer

Iowa - Eve Drewelowe

HOWE I SEE IT: It's not been often during the last 20 plus years that I struggle this hard finding a path to victory for Iowa. That's because it's difficult imagining the Hawkeye offense we've seen through six games being able to score enough points to outdo this explosive Ohio State attack. 

Now, I'm not expecting the Buckeyes to march up and down the field against Iowa's defense. But even if it holds them to half their season's average, that would still be 24 points. How are we feeling about Iowa putting up at least 25 on the road? 

Safe to say, it's going to take some big plays on both sides of the ball for the Hawkeyes to pull off the upset. They also must hold the mistakes to a minimum. 

I just can't picture all the things needing to happen for Iowa to pull this off  happening. 

PREDICTION: Ohio State 34, IOWA 10