Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Western Michigan

Broncos Visit Kinnick Saturday for Hawkeyes' Non-Conference Finale

Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara (right) talks with offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz during a game against Iowa State on Sept. 9, 2023 at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. (Rob Howe/HawkeyeNation.com)

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Saturday's Iowa-Western Michigan game sets up as a trap game for the Hawkeyes, at least on paper. They're a four-touchdown favorite at Bet Rivers. 

Last week, Iowa reclaimed the Cy-Hawk Trophy with a 20-13 victory against Iowa State in Ames. Next Saturday brings a trip to seventh-ranked Penn State for a likely Top 25 matchup under the lights at a wild Beaver Stadium. 

Again, it's a trap game if you subscribe to that theory. If you take it one game at a time, you're good here. Either way, it might not matter if the oddsmakers are seeing it correctly. 

Western Michigan has split its first two games with a new coaching staff this season. It opened with a 35-17 victory against St. Francis U of the FCS. It lost at Syracuse, 48-7, this past Saturday. The Orange beat Colgate (FCS), 65-0, the week before. 

Hawkeye receivers Nico Ragaini and Diante Vines say Western runs an unconventional defense. 

"They've got a lot of crazy stuff. They've got a lot of pressure," Vines said. 

Iowa receiver coach Kelton Copeland compared it to a movie. 

"(He) was saying it's kind of like Star Wars. You don't know what you're going to get out there. There's a whole bunch of stuff going on. They blitz a lot and they play different coverages," Vines said. 

Syracuse figured it out. The Orange piled up 26 first downs and 496 yards of offense, including 343 through the air.

It could be the game where we see Iowa hit some deep throws and its passing attack gains consistency. It'd also be a good time for the rushing offense to do the same. All confidence helps heading into Penn State. 

The Broncos couldn't muster up much offense of their own in Western New York. They had more penalty yards (99) than rushing yards (97) against Syracuse. 

Western freshman running back Jalen Buckley has been a bright spot with 281 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Sophomore quarterback Jack Salopek has completed 68.8 percent of his passes but has tossed just one touchdown against two interceptions. The Brocnos haven't attempted a field goal in '23. 

On the Iowa sideline, quarterback Cade McNamara is practicing in full for the first time since injuring his leg early in preseason camp. He hurt his knee at the beginning of last season while at Michigan and missed the rest of the campaign. 

"I'm excited. This is my first week practicing for a game in like a year or so. I'm just really happy that I'm in this situation now that I can really put the gas pedal down and get after it in preparation," McNamara said. 

It's only two games, but the Hawkeyes rank 109th out of 132 FBS programs in rushing offense. They average 100 yards a game and 3.1 a carry. Ask an Iowa player if they're close to clicking on offense, they'll say it's only an inch away, here or there, from happening. 

"What we've been able to do in practice and what we've shown some signs of in the game is that we can be an explosive offense and push the ball down the field while at the same time run the ball really well," McNamara said. 

Cornerback Jermari Harris returns this week after missing Iowa's first two games. The junior is listed as a starter ahead of Deshaun Lee, a freshman that started this year's first two contests. 

"We're just really happy to have him back," Iowa sixth-year senior defensive end Joe Evans said of Harris. "He's just a tremendous football player and an even better person. I'm just really excited to have him on the field and for his leadership to be out there, too."  

The general feeling in Hawkeye Nation heading into next week's showdown at Penn State would be more optimistic with a dominating performance against Western, sure. That's not necessarily the most beneficial outcome, however. 

A comfortable victory with aesthetically pleasing and productive offense would be great as long as it's accomplished with relatively good health coming out of Saturday. Iowa needs to be at full strength next week. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Lisa Byington, Anthony Herron and Shane Sparks. 

SERIES: The schools have met three times previously with the Broncos holding a 2-1 advantage in the series. Iowa won the most recent meeting, 59-3, in '13 with current Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck running the show at Western.

The Hawkeyes have won their last five games against Mid-American Conference foes. Their last setback was a 30-27 loss to Northern Illinois in the '13 season-opener.

BETTING LINES: Iowa was favored by 28 points at Bet Rivers on Thursday afternoon. The total sat at 42.5. There wasn't a money line at this book. 

TRENDS

-Western Michigan is 5-2 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last seven games.

-The total has gone under in the Broncos last eight games.

-Iowa is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.

-The total has gone under in six of the Hawkeyes last seven games.

WESTERN MICHIGAN PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Jalen Buckley, RB - The freshman from Illinois has averaged 7.4 yards on 38 carries with two touchdowns this season. The fast start follows redshirting in '22 after appearing in four games. 

-Tate Hallock, S - The Michigan State transfer leads the Broncos with 17.0 tackles (12 solo, .5 TFL). Ten of those stops came in the Syracuse game. It's his first time playing significant reps in college having logged most of his minutes for the Spartans on special teams. 

-Keni-H Lovely, CB - Another member of the Western secondary, Lovely makes plays all over the field. This season, the Florida product leads his team with 2.0 tackles for loss and two pass-breakups. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Western Michigan: The Broncos absolutely must avoid self-inflicted wounds and play an all-around clean game. They also can't fall behind early. 

Iowa: The formula through two games is a fast start and hang on. Building on it with a more even performance from the offense would clinch this one by halftime. 

GAME NOTES

-Western Michigan junior center Jacob Gideon was named to the 2023 Rimington Trophy Watch List. The Rimington Trophy is presented annually to the most outstanding center in Division I College Football. Gideon is the lone representative from the Mid-American Conference on the watch list.

-Head Coach Lance Taylor dipped into the NCAA Transfer Portal to add depth to the roster for his first season. WMU signed 12 transfers. Seven came from FBS programs and five from FCS.

-Western Michigan redshirt junior linebacker has been named to the 2023 Wuerffel Trophy Watch List. College Football's Premier Award for Community Service, and one of the most meaningful awards in collegiate sports, The Wuerffel Trophy is named after Danny Wuerffel, the 1996 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from the University of Florida who parlayed his success on the football field into a lifetime of service.

-Six Western Michigan football players have been named to Phil Steel's 2023 Preseason All-Mid-American Conference Team. Lovely, Gideon, junior guard Addison West, junior defensive end Marshawn Kneeland, senior wide receiver Jehlani Galloway and junior punt returner Zahir Abdus-Salaam were all selected.

-Former Bronco linebacker Zaire Barnes was selected in the sixth round (184th overall) by the New York Jets in April's NFL Draft. He made the 53-man roster. 

-Iowa’s defense has allowed one touchdown or less in 11 of its last 15 games, dating back to the start of the 2022 season. The Hawkeyes allowed a late touchdown (against the second team defense) in the season opener against Utah State and Iowa State scored late in Week 2 in Ames. The Hawkeye defense held five teams without a touchdown during the 2022 season.

-Iowa has had at least one interception return for a touchdown in each of the last 16 seasons and in 21 of the last 23 seasons.

-Since the start '15, Iowa is 65-2 when leading by eight points at any point of the game.

-The Hawkeyes are 1-0 this season and 7-1 dating back to the start of the 2022 season when not committing a turnover. The team is 8-1 in the same span when winning the turnover battle.

-Iowa punter Tory Taylor is averaging 47.5 yards on 12 punts this season with four being fair caught, three being down inside the 20 and five traveling 50+ yards. K Drew Stevens is 3-for-3 in field goal attempts and all 10 of his kickoffs have been touchbacks. 

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Western Michigan - Loretta Long 

Iowa - Eve Drewelowe

HOWE I SEE IT: Perhaps it's with some blind faith that I see this being a comfortable Iowa win. That's in part due to signs of growth from the Hawkeyes. It's also the opponent. 

Western Michigan has good players. It just doesn't have enough of them. Couple that with it being a new coaching staff in Kalamazoo, and this  one shouldn't be close if Iowa plays well. While it's a trap game in the traditional sense, it's not a dangerous one on paper. 

Hope for a convincing victory and good health for the team, Hawkeye fans. That's a realistic, best-case scenario for this one. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 34, Western Michigan 7