2023 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional Breakdown

Houston and Texas lead a region with no shortage of question marks.

To get you ready for the start of the NCAA Tournament – whether you want to win your bracket pool or just can’t get enough March Madness talk – we’re diving deep into each region of the bracket.

The Midwest regional has the second one seed and top two seed, but what feels like one of the easier roads outside of that. The middle of the region is made up of teams it feels hard to trust.

This is the region of question marks. Can Houston live up to the hype? Why is Texas A&M a seven seed? Is Marcus Sasser going to be healthy? What Iowa State team will we get? Can short-handed Xavier make a run? I said the west was the chaos region. Then this might be the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ region.

Miami, Indiana, Xavier, Texas, and Iowa State are all capable of winning at a high level but also aren’t always reliable to string multiple wins together. Predicting which one does so is going to be difficult.

Biggest Storyline

There are two big ones here. And they involve the top two seeds. Can Houston get over the hump? It finally made a Final Four under Kevil Sampson two years ago and continuously knocks on the door as a power team from a non-power conference – a la Gonzaga – but is still looking for its first title game appearance in the modern era.

Meanwhile, Texas has a favorable road to the Elite Eight, which means it’s going to be fascinating to see what happens with Rodney Terry long term. If he gets this Texas team to the Final Four, can the Longhorns really go in a different direction? Regardless, a deep run should mean that Terry is a hot candidate with other offers after the season.

Best First-Round Matchup

No. 5 Miami vs No. 12 Drake

Miami is a high-octane offense led by talented guards but a shaky defense. Drake locks teams down defensively and is solid across the board on offense. And only 26 spots separate these two teams in KenPom. There are also some great style matchups here. Miami likes to crash the offensive boards, but Drake is great at keeping opponents to one shot. Miami is top-50 nationally in 3-point percentage and Drake is 37th in 3-point defense. There’s a chance this is one of the more exciting games of the first round.

Upset Pick

No. 10 Penn State vs No. 7 Texas A&M

Some thought Texas A&M should have been higher than a seven seed, but its lack of non-conference strength hurt it. Meanwhile, Penn State has an All-American-caliber player in Jalen Pickett and has won eight of its last 10 games. The Nittany Lions are a spot higher in KenPom than the five seed in this region Miami. Both play at a slow pace and Penn State can get hot from deep, which makes this prime for a close game.

Cinderella Pick (double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16 or further)

No. 13 Kent State

Kent State doesn’t have a signature win on the resume, but it has held its own against top competition. The Golden Flashes lost by five on the road at Houston and seven at Gonzaga, and also came up just short against tournament team Charleston by two on the road. This is a solid defense and Kent State does a good job of crashing the offensive boards, giving itself multiple opportunities on possessions.

Keep an eye on Sincere Curry. He rarely comes out of the game, is a good passer, and draws nearly five fouls a game while shooting 80% from the line. Curry had 26 in the MAC title game against Toledo, dropped 35 in the regular-season finale, and has only scored in single digits three times this year.

Dark Horse Pick (five seed or higher than could win the region)

No. 5 Miami

The Hurricanes have their hands full in the first round, but they say guard play wins in March and Miami has a great set of guards. Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Wooga Poplar (maybe the name of the tournament?) all shoot 38% or better from three and can take over a game offensively. The defense is definitely a concern but it also seems to be improving. Miami had the fifth best defensive efficiency in the ACC this year. Now it just needs to get stops consistently.

Regional Final Prediction

No. 1 Houston vs No. 2 Texas

Houston is going to be the popular choice here, but Marcus Sasser’s groin injury is a concern. Still, I’m not sure there’s much in the top half of the region to give Houston a ton of trouble. When Miami and Indiana play their best, they can, but their best is hard to predict.

Meanwhile, Texas is playing well and they’re athletic enough to get past Xavier without Zach Freemantle, who is out for the rest of the season.