Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks Preview: Complete Opposite of Expectations

The Kansas Jayhawks are hosting the Baylor Bears in a battle between ranked teams today. Let's dive into today's opponent.

The Kansas Jayhawks stayed undefeated in conference with yet another lopsided victory, this time over the Texas Tech Lady Raiders. Next up is a ranked matchup with one of the preseason favorites, the Baylor Bears.

It's been over a decade since the Jayhawks have hosted a ranked matchup in Allen Fieldhouse, but this could be the first of many on the season if they can get this win early in conference play.

So let's take a look at a Baylor team that is quite different from the ones that we are used to seeing.

Opponent Overview

Team: Baylor Bears

Record: 11-3 (2-0 Big 12)

Net Rating (via CBB Analytics): 14th (31st offense, 15th defense)

Line: TBA

Team Form

The Bears are coached by head coach Nicki Collen, who is in her second season at Baylor. Her record at the school is 39-10. They are coming off a season where they finished 28-7 overall, including a 15-3 Big 12 record. They finished the season in an upset loss to South Dakota in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

This season, the team is shooting 45.5% overall and 33.8% from three-point range. They are struggling from the free throw line, only shooting 63.9%. Offensively, this team is right in the middle in terms of pace, but they are skewed towards the guard position, which is a departure from what Baylor has typically been. However, while the guards are the main scoring options, they only shoot 33.9% of their shots from beyond the arc. With 52% of their shots coming inside the paint and 30.3% at the rim, they are very much a team that looks to drive to the basket.

Baylor averages 75.9 points per game, 41.1 rebounds per game, 18.4 assists per game and 8.1 steals per game. They turn the ball over an average of 15.0 times per game. On the season, they have a 17.5% turnover percentage, but as the competition has ramped up that number has risen drastically. In the last five games, they have turned the ball over on 22.3% of their possessions.

Players to Watch

Baylor's leading scorer is junior guard Sarah Andrews, While she scores 14.4 points per game, she has been extremely inefficient in doing so, only shooting 37.3% on the season. However, she is undoubtedly one of the leaders on the team and her performances usually go a long way to determining how well the team plays. She is second on the team with 4.6 assists per game, so she has been able to help get others involved.

She is joined on the perimeter by freshman guard Dariana Littlepage-Buggs, who is the leading rebounder for the Bears with 8.2 per game. The main three point threat on the perimeter is freshman guard Bella Fontleroy, who is making 37.8% of her three-point attempts. And senior guard Jaden Owens leads the team in assists with 6.2 per contest.

In the post, the only consistent option has been senior Caitlin Bickle. She is the second-leading scorer with 12.0 points per game, the second-best free throw shooter, making 75.9% of her attempts, the best three-point shooter among the main scoring options, and the second-leading rebounder at 6.5 per game. Unfortunately for Baylor, the dropoff when they go to the bench is significant.

Matchups to Watch

It seems like we are playing a broken record here, but center Taiyanna Jackson will have a huge impact on this game. She continued to dominate in the post, with a 10-rebound quarter in each of her last two games, and double-digit scoring to go along with it. Her ability to not only affect Bickle's style of play but also find extra opportunities for the Jayhawks will be extremely valuable. But another player to watch in this one is Ioanna Chatzileonti. Last season, she had her two best games of the season against the Bears, with 20 points and 8 rebounds in the first game in Allen Fieldhouse, and 21 points and 3 rebounds in the second game down in Waco. She has shown the ability to compete well against Baylor's style of play, and I expect that to continue.

And of course you can't ignore the perimeter play from the Jayhawks, especially on the defensive end. Holly Kersgieter and Zakiyah Franklin have harassed numerous players this season, and I don't see anything that Baylor does that makes me think they will be able to prevent that. It will be important for Kansas to stay in front of those drives into the paint, but the three-point shooting of this team is lacking, which should help in that regard.

Prediction

It's a bit strange coming into a game against a ranked opponent and feeling confident that the Jayhawks are the better team. Kansas has shown the ability to play with and beat teams that are on par or better than the Bears, and I don't expect much to be different in today's game.

I'll take Kansas to get off to a fast start before Baylor battle back into it around halftime. But this Jayhawk team has shown the ability to kick into another gear when needed, and Chatzileonti and Jackson both have the ability to go off for huge scoring in this one. Give me the home team pulling away late to set up a monumental showdown next week in Ames.

Kansas 79, Baylor 67.

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