Big 12 Conference Championship Predictions

With the conference tournament starting tonight, the crew gets together to give you their best guesses about how the tournament is going to go.

All year long, the Big 12 Conference proved itself to be the most difficult conference in the country. Upsets happened weekly, the conference routinely rated out as the best on average, and there truly was no easy game.

It only makes sense that the conference championship tournament would be just as hotly contested. With six teams safely in the NCAA Tournament field but still fighting for better seeding, and each of the other three looking to go on a magical run to clinch an automatic berth, it's not hard to imagine that tempers will be running high and games will have an extra intensity.

So what is going to happen? While the Vegas odds favor the Baylor Bears, Kenpom's log5 projections favor the Jayhawks. Iowa State fans always travel well to Kansas City, and many other teams have the capability of running through a bunch of teams in a single weekend.

Our crew gets together to run your through what they expect to happen, including which teams will make the final and who takes home the trophy.

Think we have it wrong? Come join us on the Blue Wings Rising Discord Server and join the conversation!

© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Davis: I fully expect the Big 12 Tournament to be competitive and entertaining, just like the regular season. And while the league proving to be strong top to bottom would make you think chaos and upsets, the team I think I like most to win a game or two as an underdog (Oklahoma St) can’t play this year. So now I’m fairly chalk in my picks.

As others will mention, KU is still playing for a one seed, and I’m eager to see how the Jayhawks look after four days of rest. While Texas-TCU is a toss-up, give me Texas to win and face Kansas for a third time after KU takes care of either KSU or WVU. Then I think we finally see a good offensive game from the Hawks against the Longhorns (an Ochai redemption for senior day and more McCormack down low) to advance to the championship game.

On the other side, I think we’re headed for Baylor-Texas Tech III, and I’m kind of feeling Tech here. Baylor is banged up and Tech has been excellent in keeping the Bears’ guards out of the paint. And Baylor is just not healthy. And that can show itself in a tournament where you have to win three games in three days.

KU-Tech in the title game is a really interesting matchup. If it plays out like this, Kansas could have the one seed locked up regardless thanks to the Baylor loss, but Self isn’t about participation trophies. I guess I’ll go KU in a nail-biter with the friendly KC crowd. 

© Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Brendan Dzwierzynski: It’s actually a more exciting Big 12 Tournament than usual for me because of how much is (theoretically) on the line for the Jayhawks. And given how some of the matchups could be, it should make for an extremely fun weekend.

Chalk isn’t always fun, but I feel like this whole thing comes down to KU versus whoever wins the matchup between Baylor and Texas Tech. The wild card might be Oklahoma, since the Sooners likely have the most to play for outside of KU’s 1-seed bid, but I’m not predicting many upsets this weekend.

I’ll wear the homer badge and pick the Jayhawks to win it, but I think KU, Baylor and Texas Tech all have about a one-third chance at cutting down the T-Mobile Center nets. The thought of Kansas winning a grudge match with Baylor is also just too juicy.

© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Noll: I’m torn on the conference tournament every year. I just don’t care that often because KU’s seed is usually locked in and I’m at work for part of KU’s run. This year, however, most have the Jayhawks firmly on the one/two line, and with three wins, KU easily achieves the one seed. So I guess they have #motivation, but this year’s NCAA tournament seems more like a matchups tournament anyway so being a one isn’t as big of a deal, at least to me. You play the wrong team, regardless of seed, and it’s trouble for Kansas.

But I digress. I think KU easily dispatches whomever comes out of the KSU/WVU game and then rides the fact that they could rest people in that blowout to a semifinal win against Texas.

Baylor will have a bit more trouble as that potential game against Texas Tech could be an instant classic and one that many conferences would be lucky to have as a final. I have more confidence in Baylor than I do in draw-a-charge university, so I think it will come down to KU against the Bears in the final.

Give me KU to cut down the nets because I’m a hopeless homer. 

© Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Lucas Murphy: The Big 12 tournament is always a fun time in Kansas City. Fans from all the participating teams show up at the T-Mobile Center to cheer their squads to victory. The Big 12 tournament is always highly competitive, and with so many worthy teams in the tournament, it could go a lot of surprising ways. The bracket will present some excellent matchups as the first game for Kansas will either be Kansas State or West Virginia. I project it will be Kansas State winning the game for their head coach Bruce Weber. Kansas will then take on their in-state rival, the Wildcats. I predict a victory for the Jayhawks. Texas is matched with TCU, and even though the Horned Frogs have been playing good basketball, I envision a win for the Longhorns, which will lead to a Kansas, Texas matchup. On the opposite end of the bracket, I project Baylor defeating Oklahoma and Texas Tech defeating Iowa State, allowing for a significant matchup between the Bears and the Red Raiders. I believe the two winners from the semi-finals will be the Jayhawks and the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is an excellent basketball team and has played KU very well this season, but I believe Kansas will take it up a notch in the postseason and win the Big 12 tournament.

© Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

David Potter: This feels like it may be a chalky tournament. Oklahoma has more to play for than Baylor, but injuries aside, Baylor has enough firepower to win that easily as long as they're invested. ISU might get a lot of crowd support and take down Tech, but I can't really predict that happening. I have a hard time seeing KU lose to WV/KSU, and they should have a virtual home game in the semis since neither Texas or TCU will fill many seats. I think we'll get that Kansas/Baylor matchup, and I think Baylor goes back to Waco with a trophy

© Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK

Andy Mitts: Just like the conference race was absolutely wide open this year, the conference tournament doesn’t really have a clear favorite in my eyes. As I spoke about on the podcast preview with Phillip Slavin, the overall result of this tournament will likely be predicated on both which team stays motivated and which ones happen to get hot on any particular night. I wouldn’t be shocked if literally every single one of my predictions below is wildly off base.

The Jayhawks have a lot of questions to answer, especially since Bill Self indicated that Kansas is likely to be without David McCormack for at least some portion of the tournament. But this team is still too talented to lose to either West Virginia or Kansas State in their opening game. I expect them to face TCU in the semis, and I’m looking for big performances from KJ Adams and/or Zach Clemence to push through. 

On the other side of the bracket, I have a hard time seeing Baylor losing to Oklahoma with the way the Sooners are playing. And Iowa State fans travel REALLY well to the tournament, which should help somewhat replicate the environment they are used to playing in. Give me Iowa State in a HUGE upset to make the title game over a Baylor squad that needs to get healthy even more than Kansas does.

In the title game, I fully expect Kansas to expend maximum effort, given Self’s mantra of “if you are going to make the title game, you might as well win it.” They just have too much firepower, and I actually see Jalen Wilson continuing his strong conference season and earning Tournament MOP honors.