Big 12 Tournament Primer: Will the strongest conference give the best tournament

The Big 12 has easily been the best league in the sport. Does that mean that the tournament is must-see TV?

We've heard it all year long: The Big 12 Conference is the best conference top to bottom. There really isn't any arguing that point. All 10 teams are in the top 53 on KenPom. The average Adjusted Efficiency Margin is nearly 4 points above the next best conference. The lowest team in the NET rankings is Oklahoma at 65. And every team in the conference is in the bubble conversation, with Oklahoma having a chance at an at-large berth if they make it to the title game of the Big 12 Tournament.

All of that means that people from across the sports landscape are looking to this tournament to be the most entertaining and difficult to predict event this weekend. So let's break down the tournament before action tips off today.

Big 12 Tournament Odds:

Texas leads the way, but a total of six teams have somewhat reasonable odds to take this title home..

Texas Longhorns: +310
Kansas Jayhawks: +350
Baylor Bears: +450
Kansas State Wildcats: +650
Iowa State Cyclones: +650
TCU Horned Frogs: +850
West Virginia Mountaineers: +1500
Oklahoma State Cowboys: +3000
Texas Tech Red Raiders: +4000
Oklahoma Sooners: +4000

Bubble Implications

There really isn't much at stake in terms of teams that can play their way into or out of the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers seem to be safely in the field, even with a loss to Texas Tech. Oklahoma State needs to at least get past Oklahoma to avoid a relatively "bad" loss. And Texas Tech might be able to play their way in with a run to the Championship game. But that's it. Everyone else is either locked in or Oklahoma, who needs to get the automatic bid to make the NCAA Tournament, and has a very narrow path to an NIT bid.

Seeding implications

There are plenty of teams that are looking to improve their seed line with a strong showing this weekend. Or at least they are trying to avoid a drop after an early exit. Kansas appears locked in as a 1 seed, and Texas and Baylor are both projected solidly as 2 seeds according to Bracket Matrix. I don't think a first round loss would be enough to shake them loose, but winning the whole tournament could push them up into the 1 line. Kansas State seems pretty secure as a 3 seed, which means they are probably just playing for momentum heading into Selection Sunday. Of course, all of this is subject to adjustments for bracketing rules.

Iowa State has struggled recently, but how they follow up their dominant victory in Waco after Caleb Grill officially left the team could go a long way in determining if they are on the 6 line or can jump up to a 4-seed. TCU is in a similar situation but heading in the opposite direction. They need to show that their loss to Oklahoma was just a blip. However, they are without Eddie Lampkin, who has left the team for personal reasons.

Best games

Wednesday - With all due respect to the Mountaineers and Red Raiders, the Bedlam matchup on Thursday night is also an elimination game for the NCAA Tournament. 

Thursday - There aren't many options for intrigue, but give me Iowa State vs Baylor. With this just being a rematch of Saturday's game in Waco, the Cyclones are looking to prove that it wasn't a temporary boost. Baylor has been up and down this year and would like to ride the high heading into Selection Sunday.

Friday - The most intriguing potential matchup has to be Kansas State against Texas. Jerome Tang won the Big 12 Coach of the Year award over Rodney Terry, but both coaches have had fantastic seasons after some pretty trying circumstances.

Saturday - As painful as this one might be for Kansas fans, I'm intrigued about the possibility of the Wildcats against the Bears. Tang has two wins over his former boss this season, and trying to go for a third with a conference tournament championship on the line is as interesting as it gets.

 The Pick

Despite all of that, it is hard to bet against Bill Self and the Jayhawks in this conference tournament. With the exception of a Texas win in the COVID year, where they avoided the Jayhawks due to COVID protocols, the only two teams to win the tournament championship since 2012 have been Kansas and Iowa State. I don't think that Iowa State has enough to get past both Baylor and Kansas, and if the Jayhawks face the Longhorns again in the title game, I can pretty much guarantee that Kansas will be extremely motivated.

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