Do the Metrics Favor Kansas Basketball? KenPom Ranks Jayhawks Lower Than Expected

Yes, the Jayhawks are the preseason AP No. 1, but one analytics site has them ranked slightly lower than expected.

Feb 27, 2024; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self gestures to players against the Brigham Young Cougars during the first half at Allen Fieldhouse. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

As the 2024-25 season begins, Kansas basketball finds itself at No. 1 in the AP Preseason Poll, a familiar position for the Jayhawks.

However, according to advanced metrics like KenPom, Kansas isn’t quite the top dog many might assume.

KenPom rankings, which factor in last season’s performance as a baseline, place Kansas at No. 6 overall.

For a team expected to compete for a national title, this is somewhat surprising.

Understanding KenPom’s Metrics

Kansas' head coach Bill Self claps his hands during the Big 12 basketball game against Texas Tech, Monday, Feb. 12, 2024, at United Supermarkets Arena. / © Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

KenPom rankings are built on predictive metrics that include offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted tempo, and other factors.

These rankings carry over elements from the previous season, meaning Kansas’ current numbers—like their +24.42 net rating, 114.1 adjusted offensive rating (6th), and 89.7 adjusted defensive rating (10th)—are based largely on last year's team performance.

While Kansas performed decently well last season, they’re not ranked as the very best in these key metrics.

Last Season's Performance: A Factor in 2024-25 Rankings

Mar 21, 2024; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Samford Bulldogs forward Achor Achor (14) shoots against Kansas Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson (1) during the first half in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena-Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Gabriel Mayberry-Imagn Images / Gabriel Mayberry-Imagn Images

The KenPom system starts each season by carrying over data from the previous year, adjusting gradually as new data is gathered from current games.

Last season, Kansas was a strong team but not dominant in every statistical category. For example, their defensive efficiency (89.7) ranked 10th, behind some of the truly elite defenses in the country like Houston and Duke.

Offensively, Kansas was solid, but their 114.1 offensive rating ranks 6th, trailing teams like Alabama and Purdue.

Why Kansas Is No. 6 in KenPom

Mar 23, 2024; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self during the second half in the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament against the Gonzaga Bulldogs at Vivint Smart Home Arena-Delta Center. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The Jayhawks’ relatively low ranking by KenPom—compared to their No. 1 position in the AP Poll—reflects these lingering effects from last season’s statistical profile.

In contrast, human voters in the AP Poll tend to emphasize factors like incoming transfers (Zeke Mayo and AJ Storr, for instance), returning talent, and team reputation more heavily than specific metrics.

KenPom, on the other hand, focuses on cold, hard numbers, which Kansas still needs to boost as they begin the new season.

The Road Ahead

Dec 11, 2020; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; A general view of racked basketballs during warm ups before the game between the Kansas Jayhawks and Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks at Allen Fieldhouse. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

KenPom’s rankings will evolve as the season progresses and teams create new data points.

For Kansas to rise in these rankings, they’ll need to show improvement in areas like defensive consistency and offensive efficiency, particularly against a loaded Big 12 schedule.

Early tests against top-tier competition will give the Jayhawks a chance to shift the metrics in their favor and prove that their No. 1 status is justified not just in human polls, but also in the analytical world.

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