Kansas at Baylor Basketball Preview

The Jayhawks head to Waco looking to give the Bears their first loss at home in regulation.

Typically, the Kansas Jayhawks are heading on the road after a home win and looking to continue the momentum. Now, KU is in an unfamiliar position of heading to an away game after losing in Allen Fieldhouse. And the Jayhawks have to face a Baylor Bears team that hasn’t lost a home game in regulation this season.

Opponent Overview

Team: Baylor

Record: 20-8

KenPom: 14

Line: TBD (KenPom projects Baylor -5)

Team Form

Baylor earned a road win on Monday at TCU to prevent the Bears from coming into the Kansas game on a three-game losing streak. Though those two losses are understandable, being at BYU and at home against Houston. Baylor is just 4-4 on the road in Big 12 play but are 5-2 at home and those two losses both came in overtime (a three-overtime loss to TCU and an overtime loss to Houston last week). Baylor is 3-2 since the loss inside Allen Fieldhouse with the wins coming against Oklahoma, West Virginia, and TCU and the losses, as mentioned, to BYU and Houston.

Players to Watch

Outside of the Houston game (name especially the end of the game), freshman big man Yves Missi has been one of the better post players in the Big 12. He led the Bears in scoring in the first meeting at Allen Fieldhouse, scoring 21 points and grabbing eight rebounds and getting to the line 12 times, making nine. He hasn’t been quite as dominant since then but still productive, scoring 12 or more points in five of the six games since playing Kansas.

Ja’Kobe Walter is the most hyped freshman on Baylor’s team and he’s been on a tear of late. After scoring 17 at Kansas, Walter has scored in double figures in every game, including a 23-point performance against both West Virginia and Houston. The area where he has struggled in conference play has been from behind the arc, shooting only 27% despite being at 34% on the season.

It’s also worth watching how RayJ Dennis rebounds in the second matchup. In Lawrence, KU held Dennis to three points while getting him in foul trouble. He also had six turnovers, which has been a trend. Dennis turned it over eight times against Houston and five against TCU on Monday, marking the ninth game he has had five or more turnovers in a game.

Matchups to Watch

Baylor has one of the best offenses in the sport and can get hot quickly. That was evident when the Bears opened the second half against Houston on a 15-2 run. Kansas was able to hold BU to its lowest point total of the season in part by turning Baylor over 21 times. BU’s turnover rate in conference play is 10th at 17.7% while KU is down at fourth.

Like BYU, Baylor is excellent from three but can struggle from inside the arc, while allowing opponents to shoot well. BU is 12th in the conference in effective field goal percentage defense and is letting teams shoot 53.2% from two-point range. Back on February 10, Kansas shot 54% from two and only turned it over eight times. Baylor shot 55% from two but only had 20 attempts.

Prediction

Bill Self commented on Thursday that Kevin McCullar is making progress and didn’t rule out him playing in this game. Obviously that is a big positive for the Jayhawks, though expectations will need to be tempered as he would likely be rusty and in need of game conditioning.

The midweek results make this fascinating. Baylor avoided a three-game skid which would have seen the Bears’ backs against the wall and looking to take it out on KU. Meanwhile, Kansas gave the game away at home on Tuesday and left players frustrated with the performance. Despite the bumps of this Big 12 season, the Jayhawks have yet to lose two in a row. I know this team is not great on the road and Baylor can absolutely win this game (and should be favored), but it feels like Bill Self will have the team locked in and fixing the mistakes of BYU. I’ll take KU in a nail-biter.

Kansas 71, Baylor 69

Record ATS: 14-14

Record Straight Up: 22-6

(Last game: BYU 76, Kansas 68)