Kansas at Kansas State Basketball Preview

The Jayhawks face a struggling Wildcats team on the road trying not to lose its momentum after a major week.

Coming off arguably the biggest win of the season over No. 4 Houston on Saturday, the Kansas Jayhawks only have 48 hours of rest in between matchups. Now, KU needs to build on its success in a rivalry game against a Kansas State team whose back is against the wall.

Opponent Overview

Team: Kansas State

Record: 14-8

KenPom: 75

Line: KU -5.5

Team Form

Just a couple of weeks ago, K-State was 4-1 in the Big 12 with the lone loss on the road against Texas Tech and a home win in overtime over Baylor. Since then, the wheels have fallen off a bit. KSU has dropped four straight games, and most of them haven’t been close. The first loss in this streak was the road game at Iowa State when the program accused the Cyclones of recording huddles. After that, both Houston and Oklahoma beat the Wildcats by 20 points.

Saturday was the worst loss of the year for K-State, falling on the road at Oklahoma State 75-72 in a game where the Cowboys were missing leading scorer Bryce Thompson. K-State only has one win against a top-25 KenPom team and three wins against top-50 teams all together.

Players to Watch

The two transfers, Tyler Perry and Arthur Kaluma, got the majority of the attention this offseason as replacements for Marquis Nowell and Keyonte Johnson. Both players are averaging 14 points per game while Perry leads the team in assists (4.8) and Kaluma rebounds (7.1). It’s clear where Perry will be on the floor. The point guard takes 8.4 of his 11 field goal attempts from beyond the arc. He only is shooting 32% from deep but has the ability to get hot. Perry has made four or more threes in seven games this season. Kaluma also takes more than four threes per game at 37% but does more work inside the arc.

But it’s a second-year Wildcat who has taken a massive jump. Camryn Carter averaged 6.5 points per game last season as a sophomore but so far this year is at a team-high 15.8 points per game on a mix of twos and threes. He has been incredibly consistent, scoring in double figures in all but one game (Oklahoma two games ago) since November 22.

In the post, Kansas will have to put a body on David N’Guessan, who grabs nearly three offensive rebounds per game, while William McNair is KSU’s biggest body at 6-10, 265 pounds.

Matchups to Watch

K-State’s offense has not been good in Big 12 play. The Wildcats are 12th in offensive efficiency, ninth in three-point shooting (32.7%), and worst in the conference in turnover percentage (23.2%). Where KSU has done well is scoring from two-point range, which also happens to be where Kansas has excelled of late. K-State is going to throw up a lot of threes – it takes them on 44% of attempts in conference play – and a lot can happen in a single-game sample size. But if Kansas can stop KSU from scoring easy baskets inside, it will have a good shot.

One area that Kansas might be able to take advantage and get points in a hostile environment is from the free-throw line. K-State is sending opponents to the line more than any other team during Big 12 play. During the four-game losing streak, KSU opponents have taken 39, 34, 39, and 18 free throws. If KU continues to pound the post like it has the past few days, the Jayhawks can amplify their effectiveness with and-ones and additional opportunities to score free points.

Prediction

I’m fascinated to see what we get from Jerome Tang’s Wildcats. The environment will no doubt be wild. Will K-State respond and use this as motivation to get back on track – understanding their chances are running slim – or will the team lay down after some adversity and continue its struggling ways?

These types of teams are dangerous ones, and I do worry about the Jayhawks’ legs on such a quick turnaround. Though one thing to note on that end is that the Wildcats also don’t go to the bench a ton, and Carter and Perry played 39 and 38 minutes in Stillwater Saturday.

KU can’t afford to drop this game and waste all of the progress it made over the weekend with its resume and placement in the Big 12 race. It would not be the first time this year a team has shot lights out against KU, and it could very well happen on Monday. But Kansas is playing some of the best basketball of the team over the past week and I don’t know that Kansas State can score enough to keep up with the Jayhawks’ offense the way it’s playing. I’ll take KU to win and cover.

Kansas 74, K-State 66

Record ATS: 12-10

Record Straight Up: 18-4

(Last game: Kansas 78, Houston 65)