Kansas at Oklahoma State Basketball Preview: Facing the Hottest Team in the Big 12
Oklahoma State is on a five-game winning streak and has won its last four Big 12 games, playing its way into the NCAA Tournament field. Now the Cowboys host Kansas, who will need to bring some of that mojo from Norman up a bit further north to Stillwater with them.
Opponent Overview
Team: Oklahoma State
Record: 16-9
KenPom: 27
Line: KU -2
Team Form
Not only has Oklahoma State won five in a row, but it has also taken seven of its last eight, with its lone loss being on the road at Texas. It’s a major shift from the first time the Jayhawks played the Cowboys, when OSU went 4-6 from December 1 through January 14.
The way the Cowboys are getting it done is with defense. OSU now has the sixth best defensive efficiency margin at KenPom, and during these last seven wins, only one opponent scored more than 70 points (TCU — without Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin, it’s worth noting) and only three others scored more than 60. This includes a sweep of Iowa State.
We’ll know how good this OSU team is over the next few weeks. The Cowboys will play Kansas, TCU, K-State, and Baylor as four of their next five games.
Players to Watch
One of Oklahoma State’s best players during this run has been Kalib Boone. After only scoring in double figures five times through New Year’s Eve, Boone has hit 10+ points in nine of 12 games in 2023, including six in a row that culminated in totals of 18, 18, 18, and 25. But Boone got a little colder of late, scoring nine and eight points, respectively, in his last two games.
Bryce Thompson and John-Michael Wright have been taking turns delivering strong games. It was Wright who led OSU with 19 against Iowa State on Saturday. The game before that, it was Thompson with 21. Each has shifted outscoring the other every other game over this stretch.
What’s most impressive is the Cowboys are playing great without senior leader Avery Anderson. Anderson has missed the last three games with a wrist injury, and last week it was reported by The Oklahoman that he would have surgery and be out indefinitely.
Matchups to Watch
Oklahoma State is not a strong three-point shooting team, only hitting 32% on the year (258th nationally). But the Cowboys still take a decent percentage and three times have hit more than 10 for a game. The last time it happened? When OSU hit 13 against Kansas. It’s also the only time OSU has hit 10+ in a Big 12 game.
That 13-29 mark from three was well above the mean for the Cowboys this year, and it kept them in the game as OK State only shot 45% from two and turned it over 13 times.
The key to OK State’s recent success has been not allowing easy baskets from close range. The Cowboys are holding teams to 44.4% shooting from inside the arc in Big 12 play (best in the conference) while also leading the league in block percentage at 14.5%. Kansas, meanwhile, is sixth in the Big 12 in its two-point offense during conference play at 49%
Prediction
These two met so long ago that I’m not sure how much we can take away from it and apply to this game. I don’t think OSU will hit 13 threes in this matchup, but its defense is for real and Kansas will have to be smart with the ball.
The environment is also a factor. Kansas is 5-5 in its last 10 matchups in Gallagher-Iba and OSU has only lost twice in that building all year. What Kansas has going for it is the emergence of Ernest Udeh. That’s a rim presence to match Moussa Cisse and the pick-and-roll game with Harris makes the KU offense more dynamic.
I don’t feel great about this situation in that OSU is confident and KU is playing in an arena in which it historically struggles. But I also know that winning five straight in this league is virtually unheard of and the Jayhawks seem to be gelling. Don’t take this to Vegas but I’m picking Kansas in a close one.
Kansas 73, Oklahoma State 70
Prediction record
13-10-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 80-71 KU | Actual: 78-55 KU
