Kansas at Texas Tech Basketball Preview

How depleted will the roster be in Lubbock on Monday?

For the second straight week, the Kansas Jayhawks are being asked to follow up a top-15 showdown on a Saturday with a road game two days later on Monday. This time, it’s in Lubbock against Texas Tech and there are plenty of questions surrounding the Jayhawks’ roster heading into this one.

Opponent Overview

Team: Texas Tech

Record: 17-6

KenPom: 37

Line: TTU -1.5

Team Form

Texas Tech was one of the surprises of the Big 12 season, rattling off wins in five of its first six conference games – including over Texas, BYU, and Oklahoma – while the lone loss was at Houston. After that, the Red Raiders dropped three straight at TCU and Baylor and home to Cincinnati. Saturday was a get-right game for TTU as it beat UCF by seven at home.

Tech didn’t exactly challenge itself in the non-conference schedule, so its best wins all come in conference play. It has only lost at home once all season and has been on the right side of two one-point games in Big 12 play at home against K-State and at Oklahoma.

Players to Watch

The star of the Red Raiders is sophomore Pop Isaacs, who leads the team at 16.9 points per game. Though, he has plenty of controversy around him as he was accused of sexually assaulting a minor during the team’s trip to the Bahamas back in November. Isaacs isn’t overly efficient and scores through volume. Isaacs only shoots 36% from the field and 33% from three but takes 7.6 threes per game and nearly 15 shots total. Isaacs shoots on 31% of the team’s shots, which is 53rd nationally. UCF was the first game since Oral Roberts in December that Isaacs didn’t score in double figures.

Four other Red Raiders average between 10.3 and 12.7 points per game. Iowa and West Virginia transfer Joe Toussaint is hit or miss but takes nine shots per game. He only makes 31% of his triples and is 6-22 in conference play. And Hunter Dickinson will have to contend with a fellow 7-footer in senior Warren Washington who averages 10.3 points and 7.7 rebounds, including 2.5 offensive boards per game. He’s also one of the better shot blockers in the league.

The x-factor for Tech might be 6-5 senior Kerwin Walton. After playing sparingly in November, Walton has emerged as a starter and scored in double figures in seven of 10 conference games. He could absolutely get hot from three, as he is shooting nearly 54% from downtown in Big 12 play. He was one of the lone bright spots against Houston, scoring 18 points on 6-9 shooting from three.

Matchups to Watch

The strengths, weaknesses, and style of play for Texas Tech resembles the Baylor team Kansas just faced. The Red Raiders are a high-volume three-point shooting offense that plays at a slower pace, though it is not quite as good of an offensive rebounding team but also does a much better job than Baylor at not turning the ball over.

But Tech has similar struggles on the defensive end. Only West Virginia is worse than Tech in defensive efficiency in Big 12 play. Teams grab offensive rebounds at a huge clip and are able to score both inside and out. During its three-game losing streak, Tech gave up an average of 79.6 points and got beat in a variety of ways. Baylor shot 60% from two-point range against TTU and only went 5-18 from three, while TCU only shot 37% inside but made 11-20 from deep. The through line was that all three teams grabbed double-digit offensive rebounds against the Red Raiders.

This is a game where Johnny Furphy, KJ Adams, and Hunter Dickinson have to dominate. And for the guards, just don’t turn the ball over. Texas Tech is ninth in the conference in percentage of turnovers forced, so KU can’t gift it with extra possessions.

Prediction

Bill Self didn’t sound confident that Kevin McCullar would be able to recover quickly enough to see the floor on Monday as he continues to battle a knee injury. But with the emergence of Johnny Furphy, maybe the biggest fear is the status of Dajuan Harris, who rolled his ankle in the final four minutes of the Baylor game Saturday. Then you have the illness that has reportedly been making its way through the team, with Furphy not practicing most of this week and Jamari McDowell not playing Saturday.

It’s tough to make a prediction until knowing the health of Harris. I do think this is a game KU can win if it can play defense like it did Saturday, and if Dickinson and Adams can play efficient offense without getting into foul trouble. But the combination of a short turnaround, road game, and health issues makes it feel like the cards are stacked against the Jayhawks in this one.

Texas Tech 73, Kansas 71

Record ATS: 12-12

Record Straight Up: 19-5

(Last game: Kansas 64, Baylor 61)