KANSAS

Kansas Basketball: What Is the Jayhawks' Most Likely March Madness Seed?

Kansas still has plenty to prove as March approaches.

Mathey Gibson

Feb 8, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self looks at his bench during the first half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
Feb 8, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self looks at his bench during the first half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
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Kansas basketball is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but for the first time in Bill Self’s tenure, the Jayhawks could find themselves in unfamiliar territory—outside the top four seed lines.

Since Self took over in 2003, Kansas has never been worse than a No. 4 seed in March Madness. However, unless they finish the season strong, that streak could be in serious jeopardy.

Breaking Down Kansas’ Season

This season has been a rollercoaster for the Jayhawks. While they’ve picked up big wins against top-tier opponents, they’ve also struggled with injuries, inconsistent shooting, and a grueling Big 12 schedule.

Unlike past years, where Kansas dominated the regular season, this team hasn’t quite found the same rhythm.

Despite the ups and downs, Kansas is still a tournament lock with a 100% chance of making the field, according to TeamRankings.com.

The question now is: where will they land on Selection Sunday?

Tournament Snapshot: Where Will Kansas Be Seeded?

KJ Adams Jr.
Feb 24, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Kansas Jayhawks forward KJ Adams Jr. (24) reacts in the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Current projections show Kansas’ most likely landing spot as a No. 6 seed (19.6%), though they have a wide range of possibilities, from a No. 2 seed all the way down to a No. 10.

Kansas' Seeding Probabilities:

  • No. 2 seed: 1.4%
  • No. 3 seed: 7.3%
  • No. 4 seed: 13.0%
  • No. 5 seed: 17.1%
  • No. 6 seed: 19.6% (most likely)
  • No. 7 seed: 19.0%
  • No. 8 seed: 13.2%
  • No. 9 seed: 6.1%
  • No. 10 seed: 2.3%

To keep their incredible streak of top-four seeds alive, the Jayhawks will need to close the season strong, especially with massive upcoming games against Texas Tech, Houston, and Arizona.

Winning those could push them back into the No. 4 or No. 3 seed conversation, while a few more losses could see them tumble to the No. 7 or 8 seed range.

Can Kansas Make a Deep Run?

Even if the Jayhawks don’t secure a top-four seed, Bill Self’s teams are always dangerous in March.

Kansas currently has a 7.1% chance of making the Final Four and a 1.0% chance of winning it all. Those aren’t the strongest odds, but with Self at the helm, anything is possible.

Kansas fans aren’t used to seeing their team outside the top tier of the bracket, but March is all about peaking at the right time.

If the Jayhawks can get hot down the stretch, they could still be a team nobody wants to face in the tournament.

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Mathey Gibson
MATHEY GIBSON

Mathey Gibson is the Managing Editor for the Kansas Jayhawks On SI. A graduate of the University of Alabama, he has extensive experience covering major college sports, including reporting on Crimson Tide athletics since 2019 for outlets like Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, The Crimson White, and Tide Illustrated. Now focused on Kansas, Gibson has covered significant events such as the NCAA Tournament, College World Series, and the College Football Playoff, bringing a deep understanding of collegiate athletics to one of the nation’s premier programs.

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