Creighton vs Kansas: NCAA Tournament Preview

The Kansas Jayhawks and Creighton Bluejays face off in a 2nd round battle of the birds down in Fort Worth, TX today.

Contents

1. Players to Watch
2. Prediction

Playing Creighton may feel quite familiar for the Kansas Jayhawks this year, as the two teams face off early Saturday afternoon with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. Not because the two teams have faced off already this year (they haven't), because the style of play is very reminiscent of the way the Big 12 in general played basketball this year. Those who have followed Creighton under Greg McDermott may be used to extremely efficient offense, and not always a lot of defensive focus. McDermott's Bluejays have finished with a top 5 offense four different times in his tenure, with the last being in 2020.

But wait, that doesn't sound like most of the Big 12, right? It doesn't, and it also doesn't sound like what this year's Creighton team has been. In a sudden departure from their normal team profile, this year's version of Creighton grinds out defensive victories, playing slow, hounding shooters as they try to run offense, blocking shots, and doing a good job of accomplishing it all without sending many players to the free throw line. On the other side, they turn it over a lot, shoot poorly from three, and don't get to the free throw line much themselves.

Kansas is battle-tested against teams who play like this, such as Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, and to a lesser extent, Oklahoma. It seems like much of the scrappy conference this year relied on tough defense propping up a questionable offense, and that's exactly what the Jayhawks will see today against the Bluejays.

Players to Watch

Ryan Hawkins, 6'7 senior forward

© Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

I mentioned how poorly this team shoots from three, and a case in point is Hawkins. Not that he shoots poorly himself. 35.4% is fairly respectable, especially since the 3 point line was moved back a couple of years ago. It's just that 35.4% makes him his teams' best three point shooter. He has a green light too, taking 212 of them. He's also the team's leading scorer as he shoots from everywhere, hitting 54% of his 173 two point attempts as well. He's also a solid rebounder who won't turn it over much. Unfortunately he won't be enough underneath to replace the injured Ryan Kalkbrenner (more on that later).

Alex O'Connell, 6'6 senior wing

O'Connell is second on the team in three point attempts with 194, hitting 32.5% of them. Not a great clip, but he can make just enough to be dangerous and warrant attention on the perimeter. Like Hawkins, he'll shoot elsewhere too, making 54% of his 148 attempts inside the arc. O'Connell isn't exactly a playmaker, but he'll find teammates for assists at least a couple of times per game as well.

O'Connell is second on the team in three point attempts with 194, hitting 32.5% of them. Not a great clip, but he can make just enough to be dangerous and warrant attention on the perimeter. Like Hawkins, he'll shoot elsewhere too, making 54% of his 148 attempts inside the arc. O'Connell isn't exactly a playmaker, but he'll find teammates for assists at least a couple of times per game as well.

© Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Alexander has had to step up since the season-ending injury to Ryan Nembhard in February. Nembhard was the team's starting point guard, a role Alexander has now assumed. Alexander's season-long assist numbers aren't much to look at, but he's really picked up in the starting point role, and he's been more than willing to shoot as well. 

Unfortunately for Creighton, that shot is a bit of a work in progress. He attempted 61 threes this year and made just 26.2%, though he knocked down 50.4% of his 139 twos, many of which came since late February and Nembhard's injury. He's not afraid to drive gets to the free throw line with some regularity, and he's dangerous there as an 80% shooter. He does have issues turning the ball over, but that's not something KU has been especially adept at taking advantage of this year.

Prediction

As mentioned, injuries are a major issue for this Creighton team. They were already playing shorthanded with starting point guard Ryan Nembhard sidelined for the season at the end of February. Now, a casualty of their win over San Diego State in the Round of 64, center Ryan Kalkbrenner is out as well. Kalkbrenner was All-Big East Honorable Mention and led the team in offensive rebounding, was one of its leading scorers, and was an intimidating shot blocker. That's all gone now, and his rim protection is one of the major reasons for Creighton having a top 20 defense (per KenPom). Their offense? Ranked 127th. They barely shoot over 30% from three as a team, though they're top 40 from inside the arc, they turn it over, and they profile more as a jump shooting team than an attacking one. Throw in six losses to teams outside the KenPom top 50, and this just doesn't look like an intimidating team to a 1 seed arguably playing their best basketball of the season.

Creighton's slow pace and Big 12-ish pesky defense may mean it takes a while for KU to get going, but this version of the Bluejays, missing two important starters, shouldn't have the talent to outplay the Jayhawks for 40 minutes. Once Kansas gets comfortable, they should pull away and move on to Chicago.

Kansas 75, Creighton 63